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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Fwiw the GEM has a 991mb hitting central/northern Florida then exiting into the GOM before recurving NE into the Florida panhandle and going into central Georgia7AD846A1-5D69-413D-BC98-0AE137D91A41.jpeg
0411C4B8-10F9-43C5-8F88-5F2FCF6BD0A8.jpeg
 
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Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 11A:

...DORIAN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...

LOCATION 13.2N 60.2W
ABOUT 70 MI SE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 MB

Changes to Watches/Warnings:

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados.
 
Looks like some kind of center relocation maybe going on

Its definitely struggling atm

I would definitely not rule out any scenarios at this point
 
HWRF looks to be near hurricane strength at landfall. Kind of surprised it hasnt really blown it up again. Its notorious for that

hwrf_ref_05L_40 (1).png

hwrf_satIR_05L_21 (1).png
 
0Z Euro: much weaker at hour 84 vs prior 2 runs due largely to higher shear.
 
0Z Euro will landfall in FL a little north of the 12Z it appears. NE FL bound.

Edit: Daytona landfall between 132 and 138. Tiny storm again.
 
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Super weak

Is there something in the Bahamas on the Euro keeping it from strengthening? Not sure I buy that unless its just really disrupted by the shear and Hispanola

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_7 (2).png
 
06z GFS and legacy get to the same place, Daytona Beach, with legacy much more intense than GFS.
 
Dorian looks decent, but it can’t get a organized core at all
 
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