What if Gfs is on too something?Dry air and shear taking its toll. You can clearly see the CDO being eroded on the northern side.
Question is can it recover?View attachment 22045
What if Gfs is on too something?Dry air and shear taking its toll. You can clearly see the CDO being eroded on the northern side.
Question is can it recover?View attachment 22045
Dry air and shear taking its toll. You can clearly see the CDO being eroded on the northern side.
Question is can it recover?View attachment 22045
Hopefully not, but the problem is that the model consensus has it weakening about now and throughout the Caribbean to a wave meaning this is fully expected. Unfortunately, that same consensus is getting more aggressive regarding regeneration once leaving the Caribbean due to ideal conditions of high SSTs, low shear, high dewpoints, and very little land interaction. Don’t be fooled if this weakens to a wave in the E Caribbean.
Hopefully not, but the problem is that the model consensus has it weakening about now and throughout the Caribbean to a wave meaning this is fully expected. Unfortunately, that same consensus is getting more aggressive regarding regeneration once leaving the Caribbean due to ideal conditions of high SSTs, low shear, high dewpoints, and very little land interaction. Don’t be fooled if this weakens to a wave in the E Caribbean.
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 59.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Yeah but a hard straight west hr 105. Matter fact next few frames icon starts trucking southwestICON a tick more NE. Anyone know how it did last year?
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Wondering if it crosses Florida and hops into the Gulf.