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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Just like the 12Z EPS was vs its prior runs, the 18Z GEFS is by far the most active GEFS of at least the last 4 with about half (~11) of the members with sub ~1,000 mb and ~4 Hs, all of which hit either the east coast of FL or the US Gulf coast. These numbers are way higher than the earlier GEFS runs.
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...13.0N 59.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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It all depends on the high pressure, after she hits dry air, will it expand it contract, no modeling is accurate right now
 
And why is the fv3 gfs model not picking up on it, just throwing that out there that model is trash, lagged behind everything in the tropics so far, legacy is a better model with these systems
 
The HWRF is messed up spooky. A tropical system that opens back into a wave, meaders through the Bahamas before quickly strengthening into a strong TS/weak hurricane before landfall in south FL then gulf bound in the end of August.
 
SimeonNC said:
I feel so morally conflicted, on one hand I don't want people in The Dominican Republic/Haiti to have to deal with this storm. On the other, I don't wanna potentially strong system hitting the U.S.

Ugh...

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Neither has to happen ... sheer itself could be a God-send ...
 
You know what, the 18z FV3 kinda hinted at what the last HWRF had. Shredder gets it, but it somehow reforms later in the gulf. Although in the FV3 it's a tropical storm.

I've seen the FV3 have suppression issues though, so while it was on this storm first, we might be able to toss it's tracks even on hurricanes if it comes up that it comes north. We'll see...
 
Arcc said:
The HWRF is messed up spooky. A tropical system that opens back into a wave, meaders through the Bahamas before quickly strengthening into a strong TS/weak hurricane before landfall in south FL then gulf bound in the end of August.
Click to expand...

Now where have i seen that before...
 
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