Dorian looking like its starting to intensify a bit more quicker
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yikes, definitely following the legacy GFS in the short-term at least
Great point, that center reformation NE, allowing more of that north turn early.....its taking the long way to the US allowing the trough to do its work. Yesterday's guidance was more of a almost straight shot, quicker trip less trough interaction. Still interesting to see, it could go ots or it could be like some we've seen before and be slow to make that turn north. How many times have we seen tracks continue to adjust west waiting on a high to erode....so yeah lots to figure out still.
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Gfs destroys myrtle beach, dang
Yeah, I can see two senarios. Either the GFS pulls this out of its backside and scores a yuge win or the track probably adjusts westward to southwestward as the "NW trend" occurs with the s/w over the midwest and the ridge verifies stronger. The ridge actually builds in with a vengence on the 0z Euro just a hair too late. If that trough is weaker and the ridge builds in faster this may go much farther west.
BHS1975
Member
6z gfs is slower
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Just saw TJs tweet on Twitter, and looking at Dorian, the way it’s moving it almost looks like it’s gonna pass to the east of the PR like he’s actually saying, that’s no bueno if true
The ICON maybe on to something, both GFS and Euro have the stronger ULL over the gulf and thus farther west tracks. As before, this setup has shades of Irma.
Henry2326
Member
This is a disaster.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely worrisome to see Dorian starting to intensify this early when conditions really weren't supposed to be that favorable to begin with before its passage thru Puerto Rico. This doesn't bode well for folks downstream because Dorian will be much more apt to take advantage of the favorable environment in the SW Atlantic and become a major hurricane.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Another recon plane is up in the air and going out to investigate Dorian. We'll also have the momentary advantage of surface obs from PR and the NE Caribbean islands so we should have a really good handle on what's going on under the hood w/ Dorian today.
NCSNOW
Member
Puerto Rico is the last chance to help the SE coast out. If this thing skirts east just enough to go unscathed, then all we have left to save the SE coast from a major hit is a weaker HP in 5 days.
Fwiw NAVGEM stronger at 54 vs previous run
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
wAiT u mEaN tO tElL mE tHe gFs uNdErEsTiMaTeS sUbTrOpIcAL hiGhS?
Forward speed and that ULL in the gulf are critical pieces of the puzzle.
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NCSNOW
Member
I keep thinking of the Hurricane Floyd track. Different storms, but I could see Dorian Track evolving much the same way Floyd did. Regardless , gonna be a lot of shuffling people this last weekend of summer (Holiday) on the SE Coast. Sure we will start seeing some evacuations by Sunday.
LOL...yeah, maybe just a little.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In case anyone here was wondering, you can follow along here for real-time radar data out of San Juan, Puerto Rico:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar.html
Pretty concerning to see the southeastern flank of the eyewall already attempting to fill in as Dorian approaches. If the eyewall manages to close off, more significant & potentially rapid intensification would commence. Will be interesting to see when this occurs.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar.html
Pretty concerning to see the southeastern flank of the eyewall already attempting to fill in as Dorian approaches. If the eyewall manages to close off, more significant & potentially rapid intensification would commence. Will be interesting to see when this occurs.
pcbjr
Member
one hell of a thing to wake up to ...
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This HWRF run is really taking off, makes Dorian virtually a category 4 hurricane in just over 72 hours.
That one is easy, the model that makes us hotter is more miserable.
With that small size, we will see some Cat 5 runs upcoming.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The upper-level pattern on the HWRF is downright scary. 3 outflow channels for #Dorian to work with near the northern Bahamas.
Umm...
Umm...
What a hell of a 180 turn from 7 hours ago before I went to bed when the NHC forecast barely had a Cat. 1 hurricane, now we're looking at least at a Cat. 2 approaching the FL coastline. It's also very concerning how rapidly Dorian has been able to establish any form of an eyewall in what has been not so ideal environmental conditions. It gives me bad vibes of Irma, Maria, Florence, Harvey, and Michael over the past couple years and how they were able to do the same at different stages of their life cycles.
snowlover91
Member
Dorian will be a high end cat 4 with a chance at a cat 5, models are too low on intensity right now.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Certainly possible unless it's plagued by eyewall replacement cycles poorly timed w/ dry air intrusions
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Ouch. Heads almost due W after this.
Avalanche
Member
WRAL met says although its current forecast track is south Florida, those that reside in Jacksonville/Daytona Beach need to keep an eye on this as the effects could be felt further north.
snowlover91
Member
Almost a cane.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
First hurricane hunter pass this morning finds Dorian to be approaching hurricane status w/ max winds near 55 knots (65 mph) and minimum central pressure close to 1000 mb.
Intensifying much earlier than we thought... its beginning to look like OTS is our only hope to avoid major cane
No doubt the north door is open in the short term, now let's see how models resolve the ridge/trough over the coming days...
Absolutely crazy to think this is only our fourth named storm ... and it could be the most memorable yet ..
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's an edited version of the same image so others on here can see what I'm talking about.
I can count on one hand the number of times I've seen an Atlantic TC forecast to interact w/ 3 outflow channels, hurricane Isabel (2003) was one of them.
Really can't be overstated enough how favorable this upper-level pattern is likely going to be in 3-4 days for Dorian.
Yikes
looking at the radar the coc looks really nice now, and will not be shocked to see it skirt the east cost of PR if it does make landfall at all, sig north movement this morning.
I will tell you it's usually not the GFS.
I think there is little doubt now that it will be much further N/NE in the short term, I also think there is little doubt it will eventually turn back west and then it becomes all about timing.... just how far west before the trough pulls it north.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Well Andrew was the first in the year it hit Florida. I'm sure this is going to be "the" storm of the year.
From the way I see it, if you take this into account and add the steering into the factor, it's not looking good for FL at all. From what TWC was discussing this morning, they're saying the GFS and Euro ensembles mostly steer right into Florida and the operational GFS seems to be on the more northern end of the runs. I've also noticed the HWRF and HMON dropped back further SW and both hit the space coast. I also saw the legacy come back that way as well. I think this trend north has stopped and the models are starting to come closer to the stronger ridge the Euro is advertising.
Once this clears PR we should have a better idea of what it'll do. When it gets to around the Bahamas we should have an idea of where the landfall will be. Until then the models will keep shifting the track up and down.