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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Favorable upper level environment on the legacy GFS is putting it lightly. If Dorian makes it to the Bahamas, the upper level environment is extremely excellent & dare I say ideal...

There's an upper level low in 3 of 4 quadrants around Dorian ventilating it by day 4, thus providing it 3 outflow channels (one to the east, south, & west).

Better hope this dies over Hispaniola because a small storm like this can take off in a hurry if it's given a chance.

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Webberweather53 said:
Favorable upper level environment on the legacy GFS is putting it lightly. If Dorian makes it to the Bahamas, the upper level environment is extremely excellent & dare I say ideal...

There's an upper level low in 3 of 4 quadrants around Dorian ventilating it by day 4, thus providing it 3 outflow channels (one to the east, south, & west).

Better hope this dies over Hispaniola...

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Yep. If it clears PR and Hispaniola, it's going to blow up into a major I bet. Given that possible path, I hope Floridians are at least looking at preparations. They'll have 3 days if it moves at that pace after we know if it clears or not to take action.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Favorable upper level environment on the legacy GFS is putting it lightly. If Dorian makes it to the Bahamas, the upper level environment is extremely excellent & dare I say ideal...

There's an upper level low in 3 of 4 quadrants around Dorian ventilating it by day 4, thus providing it 3 outflow channels (one to the east, south, & west).

Better hope this dies over Hispaniola because a small storm like this can take off in a hurry if it's given a chance.

View attachment 22038
Click to expand...
Are ya saying, it's possible to be more intense than the model is showing?
 
Henry2326 said:
Are ya saying, it's possible to be more intense than the model is showing?
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Absolutely yes in a scenario like this where u could have a very small storm encountering an extremely favorable environment. The biggest question marks now are what it looks like under the hood and how the models will respond which we’ll have some answers to tonight and if it survives past Hispaniola. Anything from an open wave to major hurricane is clearly and legitimately still on the table with this one without much room for error in either direction
 
Webberweather53 said:
Absolutely yes in a scenario like this where u could have a very small storm encountering an extremely favorable environment. The biggest question marks now are what it looks like under the hood and how the models will respond which we’ll have some answers to tonight and if it survives past Hispaniola. Anything from an open wave to major hurricane is clearly and legitimately still on the table with this one without much room for error in either direction
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Webb,
One of those rare times I'm gonna be selfish here ... open wave suits me just fine, thank you ... o_O ... now back to work ...
 
The overall environment around this system and in front until it gets to near the Bahamas is a real convoluted mess. You have td6 to the NW and a upper low backing SW between td6 and Dorian then eventually in front of the system. It's going to be difficult for the models to really pin down a track given the amount of interaction going on between these and how much of a weakness is left in the subtropical ridge.

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If it wasn’t for the fact that Dorian has been on and off with intense convection, and hasn’t managed a CDO, I’d think it’s a weak hurricane at this point, that Convective burst is probably the strongest one I’ve seen
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If it wasn’t for the fact that Dorian has been on and off with intense convection, and hasn’t managed a CDO, I’d think it’s a weak hurricane at this point, that Convective burst is probably the strongest one I’ve seen
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The microwave imagery is very interesting and reflects a strengthening core.
gifsBy12hr_03.gif
 
Arcc said:
Both HWRF and HMON say RIP Dorian in the short range. That aught to be fun for forecasters.
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Yeah this is probably driving all the TC mets crazy trying to predict where this is going to go. I'm going to try and put what I see it as in one sentence:

It's hard to bet against the Euro and the UKMET, but the GFS is way different as usual, but the HMON and HWRF pair throw a wildcard into the equation by agreeing with the GFS as they are hurricane specific models, however the NAVGEM, ICON, and Legacy GFS all agree with the Euro camp.
 
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