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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Recon reporting an eye

URNT12 KNHC 280516
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 28/04:49:10Z
B. 16.27 deg N 063.34 deg W
C. 850 mb 1456 m
D. 1003 mb
E. 105 deg 18 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. E21/25/20
H. 50 kt
I. 341 deg 6 nm 04:43:00Z
J. 061 deg 48 kt
K. 331 deg 5 nm 04:43:30Z
L. 42 kt
M. 185 deg 19 nm 04:56:30Z
N. 283 deg 29 kt
O. 200 deg 7 nm 04:52:30Z
P. 21 C / 1501 m
Q. 23 C / 1520 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF309 0805A DORIAN OB 31
MAX FL WIND 54 KT 078 / 11 NM 04:03:00Z
 
Brent said:
Recon reporting an eye

URNT12 KNHC 280516
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 28/04:49:10Z
B. 16.27 deg N 063.34 deg W
C. 850 mb 1456 m
D. 1003 mb
E. 105 deg 18 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. E21/25/20
H. 50 kt
I. 341 deg 6 nm 04:43:00Z
J. 061 deg 48 kt
K. 331 deg 5 nm 04:43:30Z
L. 42 kt
M. 185 deg 19 nm 04:56:30Z
N. 283 deg 29 kt
O. 200 deg 7 nm 04:52:30Z
P. 21 C / 1501 m
Q. 23 C / 1520 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF309 0805A DORIAN OB 31
MAX FL WIND 54 KT 078 / 11 NM 04:03:00Z
Click to expand...

First time she's had any resemblance of a eyewall feature mentioned in a vortex data message.
 
0Z Euro further ENE than 12Z and similar to 18Z at hour 72. So, likely will come in further north than 12Z Euro and even small chance for close call recurve.
 
Euro almost heading due West between hour 72 and 96.
Edit crossing the Florida peninsula heading toward the Gulf of Mexico. at 120
 
Last edited:
0Z Euro: Landfall Jupiter 114. Actually S of 12Z Euro due to more west heading near FL.
 
So it'the GFS against the world about bringing her North. How many times have we seen this before? I know where I would put my money lol. :)
 
After crossing the peninsula she is heading North in the Gulf between 144 and 168. Looking to make a second landfall somewhere in the big bend area of Florida for a second impact.
 
The 0z Euro ensemble is coming in in good support of the operational with the mean very near that and a little south of the 12Z and 18Z Euro ens means.
 
11:00 pm discussion says:

"The official forecast has
been shifted to the north of the previous one. This is in close
agreement with the ECMWF model track, but south and southwest of
the latest simple and corrected consensus predictions."

Wonder if they are really confused now since Euro went south of that position st 00z. It is still in the cone, so maybe not.
 
The biggest differences between 00z between Euro and GFS IS the north placement on the ridge for GFS. Frame 72 and 96 show it rather clearly. They are in synch up to 72, although GFS is a tad stronger, with no degradation coming over PR for either of them.
 
Brent said:
They dont change anything on intermediates

Oh and yikes at the eps map lol
Click to expand...
Then the 5:00 should do something.....what I have no clue. Maybe they will come up with their own idea. LoL

Yea, they converged yesterday at noon and it all fell apart.
 
Cat 2 forecast now!


OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.7N 77.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
Henry2326 said:
The biggest differences between 00z between Euro and GFS IS the north placement on the ridge for GFS. Frame 72 and 96 show it rather clearly. They are in synch up to 72, although GFS is a tad stronger, with no degradation coming over PR for either of them.
Click to expand...
WeatherBELL tweeted this pic demonstrating the impact of the high in the different models. Same as what I found. Might help visualize the differences.

EDBndJCXsAInlH-.jpeg
 
5:00 am discussion:

"However, there has
been considerable run-to-run variability among the models so
confidence in the long term track remains low. "

"Some additional slow strengthening seems likely today before Dorian
reaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The land interaction
could end the strengthening trend or even cause some temporary
weakening, however, environmental conditions favor intensification
after the storm pulls northward into the southwestern Atlantic.
Nearly all of the intensity models show Dorian becoming a hurricane
in about 2 days, with additional strengthening beyond that time.
The NHC intensity forecast is increased from the previous one,
especially at the longer forecast times, to be in better agreement
with the latest models. This forecast, however, is still on the
lower end of the guidance envelope, so additional upward adjustments
could be needed if the guidance trends persists. It is also worth
noting that the global models show Dorian increasing in size by the
time it nears the southeast U.S."
 
Icon stays south toward another low feature in the gulf. Never really materializes in the other models.


Screenshot_20190828-054940.jpg
 
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