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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

ForsythSnow said:
Good news is that we have an ongoing environment drop mission and 2 more planes on their way into the storm right now. Bad news is if the data is being blended into the current ICON, then you get the point.
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There was some talk of that data making it into some of the 12Z model runs but I'm guessing that did not happen? It should definitely be in tonight's.

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metwannabe said:
As of now I'd say anyone along the eastern seaboard to Tx have a chance.... heck just look at the EPS members from ots to Mexico.

With that said, personally I'd lean more towards an area of say Fl/Ga line west to Tx, that high is strong and should keep this well south of us
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The only concern would be the models weakening the ridge over time allowing a more nnw turn. Outside of that happening this one should stay south of us here in NC.
 
Is this storm being a fish completely off the table? Seems like ALL the discussion is about shred or no, intense or weak, and obviously, where it's going. Assuming it survives, it seems there is consensus it IS coming toward the SE coast. Is this accurate?
 
Here comes GFS.....lets see if it follows. If it does, it will be the first time for this storm.
 
NWTENN said:
Is this storm being a fish completely off the table? Seems like ALL the discussion is about shred or no, intense or weak, and obviously, where it's going. Assuming it survives, it seems there is consensus it IS coming toward the SE coast. Is this accurate?
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Models having a tough time because of its small size.
 
NWTENN said:
Is this storm being a fish completely off the table? Seems like ALL the discussion is about shred or no, intense or weak, and obviously, where it's going. Assuming it survives, it seems there is consensus it IS coming toward the SE coast. Is this accurate?
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There's about a 1% chance this thing goes OTS and misses all land except PR or Hispaniola from what I think. At the sharpest recurve it would still hit NC, but that's on the extreme end of the possibilities. The other extreme is it going way west in the Gulf into Mexico. I'm pretty sure this is going to be a US threat.
 
Shaggy said:
The only concern would be the models weakening the ridge over time allowing a more nnw turn. Outside of that happening this one should stay south of us here in NC.
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It would have to stay weaker for that to become likely. The stronger it becomes in the mid-range, the farther west the track.
 
NHC doesn't agree with going across the island anymore. GFS doesn't have the weakness in the ridge built in.

5:00 pm discussion:

"Dorian should turn northwestward into a
small weakness in the ridge, allowing the tropical cyclone to pass
near or between western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican
Republic. By late Thursday and Friday, the ridge is forecast to
build back in as an upper-level trough lifts out to the north,
causing Dorian to turn back toward the west-northwest in the
vicinity of the central Bahamas."
 
Legacy made it through the weakening ridge. It's just a tad faster than icon....which may have a different result.
 
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