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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Jessy89 said:
If this thing goes north of porto rico instead of over it. Then I think it’s headed out to sea. Obviously just a gut opinion.


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i dont expect big changes they will do it gradually if there is a northward trend here 5 day point will likely still be well into Florida
 
025213_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 63.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the British Virgin Islands.

The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical
Storm Warning to a Tropical Storm Watch from Isla Saona to Samana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
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Wonder why weakening and no strengthening toward landfall the models showed otherwise ?
 
Based off early frames, the ICON is fixing to be way north.

Edit: okay I spoke too soon since I didn't see the 18z, carry on.
 
There’s still time for the track and intensity to change. If the more intense northerly trend continues then the cone will adjust to it. Dorian has many variables steering it and contributing to its intensity, lots can change between now and landfall.
 
Here we go 00Z GFS is running. just a touch further East at hour 12.

FYI Icon is still into the Gulf of Mexico.
Hour 24 does not look like it looses the circulation this run as and after it crosses PR. looks like it's still a touch NE at hour 42. and has the pressure already starting to fall. I would say a good 50 miles NE of 18Z run and has pressure at 999 MB compared to 1007 MB on 18Z.
16 MB lower at hour 60 compared to 18Z.
 
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FWIW, Icon is a little south than 18z so far at south FL landfall, or maybe the same
 
At 48 hours the GFS is a bit NE and a little stronger this run.

I really thought early in the run that the ICON was gonna head OTS by the way. Still ended up heading towards the gulf.
 
Really am starting to think there's a window for OTS with this one based off the upper air pattern. Gonna be too close though since we're not far away from time for the storm.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Really am starting to think there's a window for OTS with this one based off the upper air pattern. Gonna be too close though since we're not far away from time for the storm.
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If it does make landfall it's going to be a SC or NC storm.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Really am starting to think there's a window for OTS with this one based off the upper air pattern. Gonna be too close though since we're not far away from time for the storm.
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its definitely an option now and I didn't even think it was earlier today...

GFS is east again through 114 looks to miss Florida entirely
 
Think this run eventually comes in in the Carolinas but these shifts are crazy. By the time I wake up we might be at that OTS solution.

Edit: wow, I think 0z likely is OTS. Just made the turn at 144.

Edit2: nope, it's coming in, but it was a large step towards steering OTS.
 
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ncskywarn said:
If it does make landfall it's going to be a SC or NC storm.
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So many times over the decades of watching these things have I seen this play out the same way, just about every hurricane I have been in ( have lived in eastern NC for 47 years its not a small number) has done this same slow track up the coast first they are going to get Florida, then Hilton Head, then Charleston, and eventually Myrtle over to Morehead somewhere.....or even OTS

Looks like the convection NE of the center is dominate right now and one would think this would keep Dorian to the eastern side of track and we could even see another center jump if the current center dies off.....
 
Its really about speed. The farther NE it goes initially, the slower the forward progress amd the more time the trough has to erode the ridge.

The ICON's trump card is the much stronger ULL over the gulf.
 
UKMET basically stalls in the NW Bahamas east of S FL does not make landfall through day 6
 
GFS basically just hammers Carolina areas that had problems with Florence with a ton of rain again...ick, good thing it's model cartoons with large shifts going on.
 
Cmc is little south from 18z. icon, cmc is determined to head for the gulf. If Euro comes in west again tonight than its gonna be a headache of a model spread
 
This is normally when the GFS pulls verification out of its butt and makes the other models look dumb FWIW.
 
Brent said:
UKMET basically stalls in the NW Bahamas east of S FL does not make landfall through day 6
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UKMET likely doing this due to left bias. We’ve seen this a number of times in recent years.
 
GFS likely out to lunch IMO with that pin-wheel effect ends up sending that upper level back north into Florida and eventually the south-east once the cane is gone. Western NC bakes and well as the Virginia Piedmont goes above 103 degrees on the west side of the hurricane where the dry sinking air is. Way too much going on for these models to know. UKMET and CMC also look goofy. For now, I would toss all my eggs with the EURO but even it may struggle with all that is going on.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
GFS likely out to lunch IMO with that pin-wheel effect ends up sending that upper level back north into Florida and eventually the south-east once the cane is gone. Western NC bakes and well as the Virginia Piedmont goes above 103 degrees on the west side of the hurricane where the dry sinking air is. Way too much going on for these models to know. UKMET and CMC also look goofy. For now, I would toss all my eggs with the EURO but even it may struggle with all that is going on.
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I finally have to agree with you on this.
 
Looks like she maybe finally be beginning to Strengthen also.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 4:32Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 26

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 3:59:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.17N 63.22W
B. Center Fix Location: 243 statute miles (392 km) to the SE (129°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,477m (4,846ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 25kts (28.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SW (228°) of center fix at 3:57:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 309° at 17kts (From the NW at 19.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 3:55:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 57kts (65.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the NE (38°) of center fix at 4:01:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 147° at 54kts (From the SSE at 62.1mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix at 4:03:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (42°) from the flight level center at 4:03:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
 
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Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 15A:

...DORIAN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...

LOCATION:16.3N 63.4W
ABOUT 240 MI ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 MB
 
She is beginning to strengthen.

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 63.4W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
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