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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Brent said:
I wouldnt normally get caught up in one run but there were ensemble members ots on the eps and ukmet too which is more making me wonder

Now it could just be a fluke but we'll have to see if the center reformation really did that much its possible anyway
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It would be funny if this is Joaquin 2.0.
 
The 18Z GEFS is a huge shift in terms of main threat areas vs the prior 3+ runs. Whereas the prior 3 runs emphasized a direct hit on the east coast of FL south of Daytona and then into the Gulf, the 18Z emphasizes the entire SE coast FL-NC for direct hits and even has 2-3 that skirt the SE coast and never make landfall similar to the 18Z GFS Legacy. The Gulf threat is much lower on this run. Maybe just maybe the trend will continue such that there isn't a direct SE hit? We can only hope although I wouldn't bet on this yet due to the tendency of SE ridging to be stronger than model projections.
 
The euro will be interesting see if it trends north.


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Brent said:
Yes but it went OTS despite some models insistent on a US strike

A huge euro vs gfs battle
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If any storm goes OTS, then ... :D:p:cool: ... but the set up is so different was/is my question/point ... nothing more or less ...
 
HWRF shows that once Dorian gets convection wrapping around it, it takes off and pressure falls quick as the core warms up
 
Living in Charlotte, if the cone is anywhere near Charlotte everyone buys their milk sandwiches. On a serious note I’m not a fan of this trend. Also, I hate comparing storms as much as the next guy but am I the one getting some Hugo vibes?
 
Cadi40 said:
Living in Charlotte, if the cone is anywhere near Charlotte everyone buys their milk sandwiches. On a serious note I’m not a fan of this trend. Also, I hate comparing storms as much as the next guy but am I the one getting some Hugo vibes?
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Not even close to Hugo dude I’m not even that far fetched.
 
Cadi40 said:
Living in Charlotte, if the cone is anywhere near Charlotte everyone buys their milk sandwiches. On a serious note I’m not a fan of this trend. Also, I hate comparing storms as much as the next guy but am I the one getting some Hugo vibes?
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Hugo was massive; this is but a corn on the toe by comparison at present ...
 
Besides there is a large swath of modeling for the Sandhills east in NC with little to no impact Charlotte west. Way too far out to worry.
 
HWRF with an uptick in intensity, heading for FL
hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_36.png
 
Cadi40 said:
I never said this was going to be a Hugo, I was just comparing the storms and their some what similar tracks. By no means do I think Dorian will reach its size/intensity.
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No where close to a Hugo track either. That one started near Africa. If you are just comparing parts of the track that bend left at the Bahamas you could say Hurricane Sandy also tracked similar. Just doesn’t compare or make sense to...
 
Better hope it goes out to sea it has the potential to explode like Webber mentioned in the Bahamas. But..I’ve seen many times shear pop up out of nowhere 12 hours before and whip a storms Arse around a little bit. Each day will be something new to monitor.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Better hope it goes out to sea it has the potential to explode like Webber mentioned in the Bahamas. But..I’ve seen many times shear pop up out of nowhere 12 hours before and whip a storms Arse around a little bit. Each day will be something new to monitor.
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Yep maybe, happened a little bit to Florence before it made landfall where it encountered little bits of shear
 
And you listen to weather channel they downplay this so much. And act like there’s no way this thing slides north because of the high pressure. I’m begging to think weather channel has no clue!


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Jessy89 said:
And you listen to weather channel they downplay this so much. And act like there’s no way this thing slides north because of the high pressure. I’m begging to think weather channel has no clue!


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Yeah,my folks in Jax said to me "we will watch the news". I said "don't do that, you'll be about a day late figuring out what to do".
 
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