Agreed... I think it's either into the shredder or if it misses the high pushes it back west
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
So the high that looked to push it west is breaking down fairly quick on the Euro? I'm only out to 96 on the Euro and being impatient lol
Nope.... what there is of a TC is going west
Not really. Actually, high is a tad stronger. I'm basing that on the position being slightly further N than the 0Z. But let's see if it makes a sharper left turn. If so, it won't come into FL further north.
Yeah I just edited my post, looks like a left hook incoming because that high is stout
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Based off the 24 hour slides I "think" the Euro doesn't interact with the shredder much either. It's a little stronger but still looks like a tropical storm. Now let's see where it goes.
pcbjr
Member
NO (all caps).
The good news is it looks fairly weak
Brent
Member
Henry2326
Member
The real question: is the Euro catching up with the rest of the models and tomorrow will go to the gulf? Or will the rest see some weakness in the high and come back to the east coast? Stay tuned to days of our lives.......
Henry2326
Member
No comfort....they can't figure out where its going, much less how intense it will be.
Is it just me or does anyone else think that the friction of this thing blowing against the mountain range can cause it to wobble right, between the 2 islands? Looks like simple physics to me, but maybe that's too simple of an explanation.
pcbjr
Member
Thanks ... but been burned before ...
The 12Z Euro's relatively weak storm would be great news but I don't believe it because:
- The model has shear all around it under 10 knots the prior 48 hours
- The model has dewpoints of 77+ F all around it for the 48 hours leading to landfall
- It is traveling over SSTs that are very warm and OHC that is high for the prior 48 hours
- Other than flat northern Bahamas, which never have much effect, there's no land interaction the prior 48 hours. It had only grazed E Hispaniola 72 hours earlier.
- There's a high to the north, which if anything is normally conducive to strengthening for a TC traveling underneath it to the W or NW
- It is still pretty small then per the model making it easier to strengthen
- It is moving too quickly to result in much weakening from upwelling
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If there's anything model watching will teach you, its that you never really know for sure what's gonna happen. (ESPECIALLY at this range)
Just sharing info
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Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Bryce Shelton
Member
Dorian could actually end up being a GA/SC threat... Wouldn't it be something if it was to make landfall in the "curve" area of GA. Not many storms hit that area.