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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

I think we have an obvious agreement here on the 12Z models. The FV3 is out to lunch and this thing is going to miss most Hispaniola's steep terrain. Let's see if the Euro sits with the GFS or the others.
 
Euro is going to be really interesting. All the models except the FV3 have it hitting lower FL now and going across into the Gulf.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The spike in the T values definitely indicate that it's intensifying and a lot faster than what many expected. The outflow is becoming more organized but I think some dry air is still mixing in.
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Looks like it’s getting sheared by the increasing westerly flow. TBH the next twelve hours will determine if there is actually anything to track.
 
Arcc said:
Looks like it’s getting sheared by the increasing westerly flow. TBH the next twelve hours will determine if there is actually anything to track.
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Yeah it's struggling with that shear for sure, but at the same time it seems like it doesn't want to die. Probably not going to strengthen much more today and likely could weaken a little.
 
174008_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Arcc said:
Watch the westward shift with that weakness/ULL in the gulf. Seeing shades of Irma.
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And the Euro also has the Atlantic ridge building in quick, the two combined may in fact cause it to make a sharp left hand turn in the next couple of frames... wouldn't that be crazy, go north of the islands then left through the GOM, like it's driving around the land.
 
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