Further north than 12z
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Further north than 12z
Not really, just a few hours faster.
Edit: NM looking at wrong frame.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There's an upper level anticyclone over virtually the entire SW Atlantic by hr 96 on the ICON. If Dorian is a decent TC by then it may be undergoing rapid intensification.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's also important to keep in mind that global models may be having trouble resolving Dorian's core by this point as a result of its small size and thus could be considerably stronger than shown...
pcbjr
Member
A long wy to go and many variables ... don't put all the eggs in one basket ... yet ...
For example:
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/wmo/
and
For example:
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/wmo/
and
Ouch is the word of choice.
Definitely faster and further north on ICON. its on course for miami
ICON:
If this had been a 180hr run I would not be surprised if we had seen it pop out into the GOM and redevelopICON:
pcbjr
Member
We interrupt this program for a service announcement ... the source of all the maps and models I toss up here are also in Wiki, and you're invited to peruse them ...
Wouldn’t be long if it did. It is about to feel the tug of the trough on this run.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GFS is further NE this run so far thru 24 hrs
pcbjr
Member
You should not like it ... still got reservations inland?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Recon is taking off now, should have some new information on what's going on under the hood w/ Dorian shortly.
pcbjr
Member
Yes and I'll continue to hold them.
pcbjr
Member
Good idea ... look at the trend on the run archive ...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fwiw, the happy hour legacy GFS makes Dorian a hurricane by 48 hours just north of Puerto Rico. This is considerably stronger than any model by this time
BHS1975
Member
I think we’re about to see a massive change in the NHC forecast.
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pcbjr
Member
Not a great analogy, but sorta seems like an Atlantic side Charlie ...
6 mb drop in those 2 frames, GFS May go ballistic lol
Gfs is really weakening the west Atlantic ridge each run and shifting it NW allowing for a much more northerly track. Since it's that far north the trough in the plains moving east would have a lot more influence on the system as it approaches the US
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Talk about a favorable environment, geezzz 
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The GFS Legacy looks scarier.
A 6mb difference between the GFS twins at hr96. Legacy being 987. Not good
Brent
Member
GFS has really caved hasnt it
All those runs it killed it
All those runs it killed it
GFS is looking scary.
GFS playing catch up and then some
My goodness its at 960mb at hr126 on GFS
GFS has a strengthening Category 2 hurricane about to make landfall @126 hours.
BufordWX
Member
Happy hour going full tilt today.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The core is still probably not being resolved on the GFS, Dorian is likely even stronger than this GFS run shows verbatim.
Dang! Legacy down to 951 mb
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Oh heck naw the GFS is taking it up the coast just before it hit FL
ForsythSnow
Moderator
This is an atrocity for Larry and SAV. Just sits there off the coast slowly moving into SAV.
Larry, if this one is right, you'll be glad you had reservations
PRE setting up over the Carolinas on the gfs
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