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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Icon takes it down into the Florida straights and actually tip toes around the peninsula! Heading for the Gulf of Mexico for a potential strike on the northern Gulf Coast?

This has got to be southern most outlier of models. Waiting for the Euro...
 
Wonder how soon the G-4 can start getting data on high strength and orientation into the models. That's gonna be the last opportunity for any major changes I would think, but the models have missed this storm pretty badly so far. I mean a hispaniola approach to over the virgin islands is a couple hundred miles for a 2 or 3 day forecast. Dorian went well outside of it's short term cone from a couple days ago.
 
icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_60.png
 
It's pretty freaking incredible that just 24 hours ago we were wondering how well it would survive interaction (if at all) with Hispaniola and now it's outer most rain bands will probably never even make it there.
 
Uh oh. 12z GFS puts my area in the game with a major. Looks like the Gulf coast needs to keep an eye on Dorian.

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ICON way south, GFS the farthest north. Do you go with the Euro in the middle?
 
Will Rossman said:
Uh oh. 12z GFS puts my area in the game with a major. Looks like the Gulf coast needs to keep an eye on Dorian.

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That's the ICON. The GFS is headed straight towards the space coast this run.
Brick Tamland said:
ICON way south, GFS the farthest north. Do you go with the Euro in the middle?
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I think it'll head exactly where the GFS is as of right now, but beyond that I can't guess.
 
I have mostly stayed out of this thread because I don't really have anything new to add. But my gut tells me this will miss the US. Also, I don't trust the Icon with tropical systems.
 
stormcentral said:
Based on what? Lol
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His gut.... and I really don't want anymore details about his gut. Lol

Anyway... GFS has landfall late Sunday night/early Monday morning, Wednesday morning it's still in south Ga. Goodness let's hope not, no one needs more massive inland flooding
 
In the meantime, you can see on San Juan radar and with reports of SW winds in St. Croix the center is clearing that island to the north and is still well east of PR.... also still looks to be on a NNW heading.
 
metwannabe said:
It's pretty freaking incredible that just 24 hours ago we were wondering how well it would survive interaction (if at all) with Hispaniola and now it's outer most rain bands will probably never even make it there.
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So gonna do more harm than good for those in the severe drought. Hopefully PR still gets decent rains especially the south side. This was the perfect storm for rain since it wasn’t too strong like Maria.
 
Dorian is right on the eastern most edge of the cone and may move just outside of it, continues to bust hard in the short term....
 
This is a particularly dangerous tropical storm being added to a short list of names that can strengthen in the graveyard of the eastern Caribbean and fool the NHC in the short term track. If it’s erratic behavior continues as a major hurricane I fear for the Bahamas and US.
 
stormcentral said:
Based on what? Lol
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It's already gaining latitude and is forecast to gain more latitude than it looked just a day ago. The farther north it goes, the higher chance it has to be influenced by any trough present near the east coast. The WAR is forecast to build in and steer the system to the WNW/NW. As the west side of it erodes, the system will slow. My guess is that toughing will erode the ridge and influence the system more than currently modeled. I think it stalls off the coast and then moves OTS. It's a guess. We'll see.
 
50+ mph wind gust out of the east at the buoy circled, center is due south and should pass right over or very close....

1567009876146.png
 
Btw in the image I shared, note that is on the eastern most edge of the cone, to @Rain Cold point it continues to gain latitude. This delays it's arrival to the US and in turn could end up being a life saver, time will tell
 
Rain Cold said:
It's already gaining latitude and is forecast to gain more latitude than it looked just a day ago. The farther north it goes, the higher chance it has to be influenced by any trough present near the east coast. The WAR is forecast to build in and steer the system to the WNW/NW. As the west side of it erodes, the system will slow. My guess is that toughing will erode the ridge and influence the system more than currently modeled. I think it stalls off the coast and then moves OTS. It's a guess. We'll see.
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100% Agree some models tend to downplay trough until we get closer.
 
Rain Cold said:
I have mostly stayed out of this thread because I don't really have anything new to add. But my gut tells me this will miss the US. Also, I don't trust the Icon with tropical systems.
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metwannabe said:
Dorian is right on the eastern most edge of the cone and may move just outside of it, continues to bust hard in the short term....
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Rain Cold said:
"It's already gaining latitude..."

What you describe we have seen so many, many times in the past. I hope it's true this time as well.
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CMC took a jump to the ICON. System further west is little better and sends the storm into the GOM.
 
Tropical Tidbits isn’t gonna stand the traffic for the euro. Gonna crash soon.
 
metwannabe said:
Btw in the image I shared, note that is on the eastern most edge of the cone, to @Rain Cold point it continues to gain latitude. This delays it's arrival to the US and in turn could end up being a life saver, time will tell
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To add to this here are models from 18z yesterday. Short term they were WAY off. 1EDE2FB7-E153-4C9B-B3B2-875AD40C42ED.jpeg


Every single model was too far west...
 
Rain Cold said:
It's already gaining latitude and is forecast to gain more latitude than it looked just a day ago. The farther north it goes, the higher chance it has to be influenced by any trough present near the east coast. The WAR is forecast to build in and steer the system to the WNW/NW. As the west side of it erodes, the system will slow. My guess is that toughing will erode the ridge and influence the system more than currently modeled. I think it stalls off the coast and then moves OTS. It's a guess. We'll see.
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I so hope you are right and the NHC adjusts its thinking accordingly.

One thing is for certain, if you look at the large majority of past stprms on the NHC run archive (in Wiki>Tropical>Models) seldom do they stay "on course" 4 days out ...
 
Scotty Powell is way out of touch. Anyone read his latest update on FB? Guess he needs time to copy the NHC forecast cause he’s totally lost with what he just said!
 
My Thinking from earlier this morning is becoming more confident we see a Floyd track. Floyd got within 50 miles of NE Florida, stalled crawled all the way up coast.

If any of you remember NHC and everyone was convinced on a NE Florida landfall, had mass evacuations and turned out to be for naught.
 
NCSNOW said:
My Thinking from earlier this morning is becoming more confident we see a Floyd track. Floyd got within 50 miles of NE Florida, stalled crawled all the way up coast.
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I have to say no. Ridge is buffing, and this extreme of the cone is going to be eliminated within days is how I feel. I still feel a Frances-like track but a bit north is the way it'll play out.
 
At this rate it would be very low confidence to say its following any particular storm of the past with how things are evolving every day. Could go out to sea, could be a slim margin the system in pinwheeled into the Gulf, could strike Florida, could brush the east coast, could hit Myrtle, probably the OBX but usually always safe to say Georgia will be safe lol.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I have to say no. Ridge is buffing, and this extreme of the cone is going to be eliminated within days is how I feel. I still feel a Frances-like track but a bit north is the way it'll play out.
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I'm with you.....and....we get to go back anf forth for days....
 
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