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Hurricane Debby

There's a pronounced jettison back NW but we've got competing low level vorticies competing fir dominance around a larger gyre that's just creeping north it seems now. 986mb, probably have Hurricane Debby at 11pm. Still fighting some light westerly shear, and trying to cough out dry air that intruded on her earlier this afternoon.recon_AF302-0704A-DEBBY.png
 
iGRXY said:
This thing also not rapidly intensifying will also sway it from going further east than initially thought as well
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This is also another reason why it’s hard to buy into the ICON’s track once it gets into the Atlantic. The reason the ICON landfalls so far north is partially because how strong it has it becoming. The ICON drops the pressure to 959mb when none of the other models go lower than around 985.
 
I think the reason the ICON is getting leaned on is it has been more or less the same for several days now....and the the Euro and Ukie have trended towards it. The 18Z Euro was one more east tick away from being the same as the ICON. The real question is how far south does Debby get back into the Atlantic...she certainly could be a hurricane when she comes in likely between Myrtle and Lookout somewhere.

This is the ICON 12Z run last Friday
icon_mslp_pcpn_seus_50.png


This was 18z tonight
icon_mslp_pcpn_seus_30.png
 
Chazwin said:
This is also another reason why it’s hard to buy into the ICON’s track once it gets into the Atlantic. The reason the ICON landfalls so far north is partially because how strong it has it becoming. The ICON drops the pressure to 959mb when none of the other models go lower than around 985.
Click to expand...
Nam does get it down to 981 now
 
Stormsfury said:
There's a pronounced jettison back NW but we've got competing low level vorticies competing fir dominance around a larger gyre that's just creeping north it seems now. 986mb, probably have Hurricane Debby at 11pm. Still fighting some light westerly shear, and trying to cough out dry air that intruded on her earlier this afternoon.
Click to expand...

Yeah could see it stretched SW to NE on radar...though it does seem to be working it put and the SW eye has really taken off the last half hr or so...

KTBW - Super-Res Reflectivity 1, 10_43 PM.png
 
Downeastnc said:
I think the reason the ICON is getting leaned on is it has been more or less the same for several days now....and the the Euro and Ukie have trended towards it. The 18Z Euro was one more east tick away from being the same as the ICON. The real question is how far south does Debby get back into the Atlantic...she certainly could be a hurricane when she comes in likely between Myrtle and Lookout somewhere.

This is the ICON 12Z run last Friday
View attachment 149431


This was 18z tonight
View attachment 149429
Click to expand...
Sheeshh 963mb cane near Cape Fear 😨
 
JHS said:
Well after starting out way east the 0z NAM has its 2nd landfall as a 978MB storm 20 miles SW of Charleston and moving west.
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Impossible , the jonesville rain dome will prevent it from daring to approach and provide rain . Can safely toss that solution
 
Chazwin said:
This is also another reason why it’s hard to buy into the ICON’s track once it gets into the Atlantic. The reason the ICON landfalls so far north is partially because how strong it has it becoming. The ICON drops the pressure to 959mb when none of the other models go lower than around 985.
Click to expand...
I highly doubt it gets to 959 as well but the ICON will most likely be close at landfall at 984mb

1722826375674.png
 
Downeastnc said:
I think the reason the ICON is getting leaned on is it has been more or less the same for several days now....and the the Euro and Ukie have trended towards it. The 18Z Euro was one more east tick away from being the same as the ICON. The real question is how far south does Debby get back into the Atlantic...she certainly could be a hurricane when she comes in likely between Myrtle and Lookout somewhere.

This is the ICON 12Z run last Friday
View attachment 149431


This was 18z tonight
View attachment 149429
Click to expand...
I agree that it’s been consistent, but the same can be said for the GFS and the mess it’s been trying to do. I still go to how strong the ICON develops it as the biggest reason why I don’t see it making a landfall that far north. The center crawling along for two days is going to have to start fighting upwelling which is going to slow any strengthening.
 
Chazwin said:
I agree that it’s been consistent, but the same can be said for the GFS and the mess it’s been trying to do. I still go to how strong the ICON develops it as the biggest reason why I don’t see it making a landfall that far north. The center crawling along for two days is going to have to start fighting upwelling which is going to slow any strengthening.
Click to expand...
Getting over the gulf stream would help with unwilling but it is an eastern outlier while the gfs is a crazy outlier. Between the 2 I'd take the one that matches closer to climatology as the one to lean on........lean on doesn't mean take it verbatim.....icon is clearly wonky on intensity
 
Regardless of Debby's exact forecast track during that time, the
slow forward speed is likely to cause potentially historic rainfall
across southeast Georgia and South Carolina, with an increasing
likelihood of catastrophic flooding.
 
Live 5’s model has 16” for CHS, 10” for Beaufort thru Friday night. 14.3” for Myrtle. 3-5” out almost to Clinton
 
Not often do tropical storms and CAT 1 hurricanes carry catastrophic wording. Many locals in Savannah seem unfazed. This will only add to fixing the CAT 1-5 rating system. Flooding, storm surge, etc should factor into a rating to help the public understand. Debby will likely be retired.
 
Chazwin said:
I agree that it’s been consistent, but the same can be said for the GFS and the mess it’s been trying to do. I still go to how strong the ICON develops it as the biggest reason why I don’t see it making a landfall that far north. The center crawling along for two days is going to have to start fighting upwelling which is going to slow
Click to expand...
The thing about the gulf stream is it brings a steady supply of warm water so even slow moving storms won't be as affected by upwelling. Pressures in the 960's seems pretty unlikely...
 
iGRXY said:
ICON correcting wayyyy southwest vs 18z and is still gets it the furthest east out in the Atlantic. Landfall near North Myrtle Beach now
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The fact that we’re seeing the number of models showing that hard hook back towards the coast leads me to believe that something like it is at least very possible.
 
A lot can change in the next 48 hours as far as landfall goes along the Atlantic and for us further inland it’s almost an eternity before we can nail down impacts. Still sticking with my prediction of landfall closer to Charleston with an inland path going up 26 and towards eastern Charlotte closer towards Monroe and Wadesboro as of tonight.
 
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