Hurricane Debby

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Reed Timmer just posted an interesting take. I agree. Anyway, from me, I’m thinking low end CAT 3 but potential for 4/5

You really think there's enough time for a Cat 5 between now and Monday morning ?

 

[weatherboyy]

You really think there's enough time for a Cat 5 between now and Monday morning ?

No cat 5 or 3 not enough time.

 

[tractor girl]

wtf is the GFS even doing

 

[Brick Tamland]

wtf is the GFS even doing

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[BirdManDoomW]

You really think there's enough time for a Cat 5 between now and Monday morning ?

Reed Timmer: Tropical Storm Debby seems to be organizing well ahead of schedule and is about to move over very warm 31-32 deg C water over the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward northwest Florida. This is such a familiar scenario

 

[SD]

 

[BHS1975]

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That light blue would be the worst case for us.


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[SD]

The convection riding north off of the west coast of Fl makes me think it starting to really feel the effects of the jet to north. Have to think a more N turn is going to happen pretty soon.

View attachment 080324.mp4

 

[BirdManDoomW]

You really think there's enough time for a Cat 5 between now and Monday morning ?

I wouldn’t forecast it no but I expect hurricane status by tomorrow. And some bursts of Rapid Intensification. These hot towers mean business.

 

[Downeastnc]

You really think there's enough time for a Cat 5 between now and Monday morning ?

If we have learned anything the last few seasons it's that lately when uninhibited these systems tend to rapidly organize...not a lot to prevent it from going boom....cat 5 is obviously unlikely but high end cat 3 should not surprise anyone.

 

[GaWx]

wtf is the GFS even doing

View attachment 149307

Something that on record hasn’t happened in a pretty similar fashion from a storm crossing from NW FL since at least 1851. This would be so highly anomalous. But the last few GFS/Euro runs along with many ensemble members are still insisting on a NW turn back into the coast. Don’t bet on it but who’s to say that a first couldn’t occur. And Easy of 1950 had some resemblance.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

View attachment 149308

Do you really think Debby could go to Texas like a couple models are showing ?

 

[Brent]

I dunno if it can really bomb out but I could see it being similar to Beryl in Texas where it's blowing up as it comes in but runs out of time

Well see

 

[SD]

Do you really think Debby could go to Texas like a couple models are showing ?

No in that image they are just "models" that extrapolate the current motion

 

[SD]

That light blue would be the worst case for us.


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Yep there was a big number of eps members that had the low center within probably 50 miles of us but the lowest pressure I saw was around 992

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

Who thinks it's higher than 40 mph now.

 

[iGRXY]

I would say an inland track between Columbia and the coast (I95 middle ground) seems most likely right now. Even back my way we are expecting rainfall in the 3-5” range as of today

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]