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Hurricane Debby

04LP.GIF
 
Seems most models are going west towards Rockingham or Lumberton the same as its been for a few days. I know its subject to change.
 
GFS floods southern Appalachians of Georgia into south-west Virginia. Best run for them and likely only going to go up.
 
Just received tornado watch for Savannah, GA. GFS continues to show catastrophic flooding up to 2 feet in the low country without the stall. Debby will be retired for impacts to South Carolina and Georgia.
 
SD said:
Good thing it ran out of time it was on the cusp of really taking off
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Exit location and how much of a core is left is most important for any re-intisfying that can occur. Then of course is track and that's still plenty up in the air.
 
SD said:
Good thing it ran out of time it was on the cusp of really taking off
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It might be a case in both instances of Deb and Beryl tightening some due to land interaction. Its hard to say what would have happened otherwise.
 
Shaggy said:
Exit location and how much of a core is left is most important for any re-intisfying that can occur. Then of course is track and that's still plenty up in the air.
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Im starting to think the miss east is back on the table. I am still going to say just west of hatteras but now moving NE rather fast.
 
lexxnchloe said:
It might be a case in both instances of Deb and Beryl tightening some due to land interaction. Its hard to say what would have happened otherwise.
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It's always interesting to watch land interaction tighten up centers....how much of Debby survives crossing Florida will definitely playa roll with where and how strong she is for round 2.

Beryl had a large weeks old well established wind field and produced gust well over hurricane strength a hundred miles from the center even as a Cat 1/2 ....Debby's wind field is eyewall dependent at least for any gust nearing cane strength. Debby's legacy is going to be the widespread foot of rain she dumps on the SE.
 
lexxnchloe said:
GFSis much faster as well. merging with cold front and out fast

View attachment 149458
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I wouldn’t say it’s out fast… it’s still takes it until Saturday afternoon before what’s left of the center reaches VA… however at least it’s moving forward and not just drifting around in the same spot all week.
 
Downeastnc said:
It's always interesting to watch land interaction tighten up centers....how much of Debby survives crossing Florida will definitely playa roll with where and how strong she is for round 2.

Beryl had a large weeks old well established wind field and produced gust well over hurricane strength a hundred miles from the center even as a Cat 1/2 ....Debby's wind field is eyewall dependent at least for any gust nearing cane strength. Debby's legacy is going to be the widespread foot of rain she dumps on the SE.
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Lets see how much it expands the next 24 hours. If the trend continues to be east and faster rain might not be nearly as bad. Weds will be an interesting day to see where it is then.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Im starting to think the miss east is back on the table. I am still going to say just west of hatteras but now moving NE rather fast.
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What are you basing fast on? None of the models are moving this thing quickly… the ICON is the fastest and doesn’t have reach the NC/VA border until Friday morning. The one bit of agreement on guidance is for their to be a block that keeps this just offshore or over the southeast for at least most of the week. The question just is where and when the weakness comes in the block to start moving it again.
 
Chazwin said:
What are you basing fast on? None of the models are moving this thing quickly… the ICON is the fastest and doesn’t have reach the NC/VA border until Friday morning. The one bit of agreement on guidance is for their to be a block that keeps this just offshore or over the southeast for at least most of the week. The question just is where and when the weakness comes in the block to start moving it again.
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Im basing it on the trend this morning and now all the models are showing a really strong front coming in with a big cool high behind it. Yes, its still slow but not as slow. The next 2 days will be interesting indeed.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Im basing it on the trend this morning and now all the models are showing a really strong front coming in with a big cool high behind it. Yes, its still slow but not as slow. The next 2 days will be interesting indeed.
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I guess other than the GFS going from taking 10-12 days to taking 5-6 to bring it through, I’m not seeing any other models speed things up drastically. The mechanism that slows it down, the strong blocking ridge to the north, is still very well agreed upon on modeling.
 
Shaggy said:
Gefs almost abandoned the turn due west into Alabama all together. Most are SC trending towards the euro/ukie/icon for sure
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The last few years, once the EURO gets locked in on a track, it really has lead the way. Now for the last few runs, it really has kinda zeroed in on a landfall near Myrtle Beach.
 
Shaggy said:
I almost always lean euro/ukie when they are similar. It's hard to beat that combo most times.
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Yeah (same as I posted yesterday) the UKMET would be a RDU eastward flooding event. But, what could be more memorable, is the potential flooding up in the NE cities. If this was to verify, video from New York City / Boston will be interesting.

UKMET total QPF day 6:

1722858997650.png
 
Storm is over land weakening. This is most realistic without wish casting a monster coming back to life and slamming Brick. I think there could be a wildcard for north/east Georgia up to 10” into some of the rain forests of south/west North Carolina. IMG_3316.jpeg
 
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