• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Hurricane Debby

Half the eyewall is strong just need to wrap around that west side and boom. The way the coast of Florida is shaped if it could stop the wobbles east and go North like the NHC says it’s going that would give it an extra 6hrs in the gulf.
 
Hope it's not another td Alberto in 94, but when they cut off and wander bad stuff, happens, like bodies leaving cemeteries, and torrents over ten foot high bridges washing people away like happened down the road. The spillway at a near by lake had a 100 foot rooster tail of water blasting up from it. 20 inches in 24 hours down in Americas, and this one looks to covering the same ground in the beginning.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Half the eyewall is strong just need to wrap around that west side and boom. The way the coast of Florida is shaped if it could stop the wobbles east and go North like the NHC says it’s going that would give it an extra 6hrs in the gulf.
Click to expand...


Too much dry air flowing into it right now. Really limiting it from strengthening.
 
Im headed to bed and while at 54 the gfs looks the same the location of the high over the upper midwest is far differnt. It wont end up. like 18Z. So far the same, i was thinking more south
 
Last edited:
Going back to Alabama it seems on the GFS. I wonder what the Euro will do later tonight.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Im headed to bed and while at 54 the gfs looks the same the location of the high over the upper midwest is far differnt. It wont end up. like 18Z. So far the same, i was thinking more south
Click to expand...
In almost the same place as 18z so far at hour 111. This model is not giving ground at all yet.
 
It is changing and has the storm back in the Gulf now about 50 miles SW of Panama City.

Edit: I give up on the GFS, it is laughable now and there is no way it is right.
 
dsaur said:
Hope it's not another td Alberto in 94, but when they cut off and wander bad stuff, happens, like bodies leaving cemeteries, and torrents over ten foot high bridges washing people away like happened down the road. The spillway at a near by lake had a 100 foot rooster tail of water blasting up from it. 20 inches in 24 hours down in Americas, and this one looks to covering the same ground in the beginning.
Click to expand...
I think like 27 inches in Americus from Alberto. I don’t think Alberto impacted as many populated areas as Debby might. Alberto wasn’t even retired I don’t believe.
 
JHS said:
It is changing and has the storm back in the Gulf now about 50 miles SW of Panama City.

Edit: I give up on the GFS, it is laughable now and there is no way it is right
Click to expand...
DONT GIVE UP ON IT. THE HWRF HAS BEEN THAT WAY THE SINCE LAST NIGHT. THE HWRF HAS BEEN PRETTY RELIABLE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL STORMS IMHO
 
Western Midlands of SC starting to see a little less and less precipitation on recent runs, with the heavy axis shifting (albeit slowly per run) Eastward. Not a bad thing, honestly. 2-4 inches is a Hell of a lot better than 8+. If trends continue, we might can even get that down to 2 inches at the max or even less.
 
2:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 5
Location: 29.1°N 83.8°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

Map shows location of hurricane-force winds.

034938_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 05/0830Z,1130Z,1430Z
B. AFXXX 0804A CYCLONE
C. 05/0715Z Departure Time 3:15 EDT
D. 29.5N 83.9W
E. 05/0800Z TO 05/1430Z Time on Station from 4:00-10:30 EDT

A. Fix/Invest Time
B. Mission Identifier
C. Departure Time
D. Forecast Position
E. Time on Station
 
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
256 AM EDT MON AUG 5 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
NORTH CENTRAL SARASOTA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 330 AM EDT.

* AT 256 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR MYAKKA CITY, OR 16 MILES EAST OF SARASOTA, MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN MANATEE AND NORTH CENTRAL SARASOTA COUNTIES.
 
4:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 5
Location: 29.3°N 83.7°W
Moving: NNE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
400 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY NEARING LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...400 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that Debby is
nearing landfall and the eastern portion of the eyewall is moving
onshore in the Florida Big Bend. An observation in Cedar Key,
Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h)
with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Updates will continue through landfall.


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 83.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
 
Belle Lechat said:
4:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 5
Location: 29.3°N 83.7°W
Moving: NNE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
400 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY NEARING LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...400 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that Debby is
nearing landfall and the eastern portion of the eyewall is moving
onshore in the Florida Big Bend. An observation in Cedar Key,
Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h)
with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Updates will continue through landfall.


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 83.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
Click to expand...
close to Cat 2 but not enough time in my opinion!
 
Lowest extrapolated surface pressure this pass 979.5 mb.
082930 2925N 08346W 6968 03002 9795 +165 +108 277012 016 021 002 00
 
5 am NHC discussion:

After landfall, Debby is expected to slow down and turn
northeastward as the steering currents collapse, taking the system
across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia later today through Tuesday. Most of the models show Debby moving off the southeast U.S. coast late Tuesday and Wednesday before a ridge builds to the north of the system, which should push it back inland over South Carolina on Thursday.

Although the details of the track forecast are unknown, there is high confidence that Debby will move slowly while near or over the southeastern U.S., which will likely result in catastrophic flooding in some locations.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top