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Hurricane Debby

Shaggy said:
Yeah especially since then ukie is similar to those two models
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I could see the euro trending either way, doesn’t matter to me as I’m not going to see much outside of a few inches of rain. I’m just wondering how strong she’ll be on the 2nd land fall?
 
Should be noted to take the High Risk serious and take non-tropical models showing 6” or less with a grain of salt. WPC :
By this point, the multi-day storm
accumulation will likely be in the double digits with maxes in the
20 to 30 inch range near the Savannah metro and all along the
Carolina Coastal Plain. With rainfall of the caliber catastrophic
flooding would be likely/definite and compounded by coastal surge
and waves. A High Risk is in effect for much of Carolina Coastal
Plain with a Moderate spanning from southeast Georgia to southern
North Carolina.
 
Good to see the local NWS tossing the GFS for the time being, local discussion!

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 137 AM Monday: Starting to feel an uptick in confidence for
the latter part of the week, what with some of the medium range
guidance coming into better agreement and more in line with the
Day 4-5 guidance from NHC on the fate of Debby or its remnant. That
is to say, as long as we throw out the GFS as an outlier. In this
scenario, the remnant circulation would pass close enough Friday on
its northward trek across NC to bring better chances of precip over
the western Piedmont and to raise the threat of flash flooding,
particularly from the I-77 corridor eastward, for Thursday and
Friday. The mtns would be spared the significant rainfall and we
would see a gradient along the spine of the Appalachians. Extensive
clouds and precip and northeast winds would keep high temps five
degrees below normal or more on Thursday and Friday, while low temps
remain mild. If we keep ignoring the GFS solution, we might actually
salvage much of the weekend as the remnant circulation would be
departing on Saturday. That would bring a return to normal temps
for the rest of the period and nominal 20-30 pct precip chances,
which would probably trend lower with subsidence/downslope in the
wake of the system.
 
The waffling of models here is funny, if the GFS said widespread 30-inch snow totals, (winter), you wouldn't toss that one, would you?
 
Rain Cold said:
Rgem seems worrisome. Pretty massive totals at 84 and still going strong.

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RGEM has a 1"/hr band that just rakes I-95 corridor and is still going strong at the end of the run as you noted. Some massive QPF totals already. It has been quite consistent with the totals and they are definitely possible IMO.

rgem-all-nc-precip_48hr_inch-3140000.png

rgem-all-nc-precip_1hr_inch-3140000.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Rgem seems worrisome. Pretty massive totals at 84 and still going strong.

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That map is troubling for the Eastern portions of the Carolinas and Georgia. It dumps over twenty inches of rain in some locations and Debby is still meandering through South Carolina on Thursday. Add that to the ten plus inches that some areas have received recently and you are looking at some major if not catastrophic flooding along the rivers in those places.
 
Downeastnc said:
Certainly does seem that we could see widespread river flooding that will rival Matthew and Florence or even the other F name storm I will not utter.
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Fran? Nothing like that since. Flooding may have been worse in the coastal counties in 99 but Sep 6 1996 will be etched into my mind as the worst storm I have lived through.
 
weather bubba said:
That map is troubling for the Eastern portions of the Carolinas and Georgia. It dumps over twenty inches of rain in some locations and Debby is still meandering through South Carolina on Thursday. Add that to the ten plus inches that some areas have received recently and you are looking at some major if not catastrophic flooding along the rivers in those places.
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Yeah. I'm not saying the rgem is right, but it feels like to me that some of the other models are under-doing the amounts over inland sections. The rgem feels extreme, but the system may end up being very slow moving, like the models have been showing. And if that continues to be the case, I would expect higher amounts to be reflected across the board as we move in.
 
jeremyt said:
Fran? Nothing like that since. Flooding may have been worse in the coastal counties in 99 but Sep 6 1996 will be etched into my mind as the worst storm I have lived through.
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Fran was bad gusted to 110 here at PGV and was by far the windiest cane here in my lifetime...I meant Floyd though who is the benchmark for flooding on the Tar and Neuse..
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah. I'm not saying the rgem is right, but it feels like to me that some of the other models are under-doing the amounts over inland sections. The rgem feels extreme, but the system may end up being very slow moving, like the models have been showing. And if that continues to be the case, I would expect higher amounts to be reflected across the board as we move in.
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I would say that it’s an outlier same as the gfs. Don’t see agreement from it from other models or the NHC track at the moment. It could happen but I doubt it at the moment!
 
Downeastnc said:
Fran was bad gusted to 110 here at PGV and was by far the windiest cane here in my lifetime...I meant Floyd though who is the benchmark for flooding on the Tar and Neuse..
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Understood , Fran is my memory but understand Floyd for your location! I had just flown out to be stationed in Okinawa for a year but looked at the news for the area of the Neuse/Trent. Catastrophic flooding from Goldsboro to the Coast.
 
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This should probably go without saying, but please refrain from comments like "We're dead now" in this thread. You can always make nonsensical and OT comments in the banter thread. That's why we have that. Thanks very much.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah. I'm not saying the rgem is right, but it feels like to me that some of the other models are under-doing the amounts over inland sections. The rgem feels extreme, but the system may end up being very slow moving, like the models have been showing. And if that continues to be the case, I would expect higher amounts to be reflected across the board as we move in.
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We have no trouble getting under "death bands" when it's rain during a cane...
 
jeremyt said:
Understood , Fran is my memory but understand Floyd for your location! I had just flown out to be stationed in Okinawa for a year but looked at the news for the area of the Neuse/Trent. Catastrophic flooding from Goldsboro to the Coast.
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Floyd brings back memories. I was dating my wife then and she was living near Goldsboro. Her father and one of her uncles had their homes condemned due to the flooding around the Neuse River. The only time I have ever hydroplaned while I was driving occurred right after Floyd was pulling away from North Carolina on Highway 70 near Princeton. I ended up making it back to my house with about $ 1,000.00 worth of damage to the car I was driving. Ironically, my wife's name is Debbie. The dog in my avatar is named Gordon and his name is on this year's list of storm names too.
 
part of 11 am discussion:

Debby has been moving through a break in the subtropical ridge with
an estimated initial motion of 030/7 kt. Steering currents are
expected to weaken some more, resulting in a further decrease in
forward speed. Most of the track guidance turns Debby eastward,
with the center moving off the coast near the Georgia/South
Carolina border in about 36 hours. Debby should move very slowly
near the South Carolina coast through 60 hours or so. Then, a
mid-level ridge builds slightly to the northeast of the cyclone,
which should push the system back inland over the latter part of
the forecast period. The official forecast track is a blend of the
simple and corrected dynamical consensus models, TVCA and HCCA.

Continued weakening is expected while the center of Debby remains
over land tonight and Tuesday. By late Tuesday and thereafter,
some restrengthening is anticipated as the center moves offshore.
However the amount that the cyclone re-intensifies is dependent on
how far out over the Atlantic the system moves and how long it
remains over water. The current official forecast shows only
modest restrengthening, given the uncertainties.

Going forward, the biggest threat from this slow-moving system
system is extreme precipitation and flooding over the southeastern
United States.
 
Cool spin East of Hilton Head. Gonna have some tornado warnings shortly.
 
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