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Hurricane Debby

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120000 2642N 08348W 8428 01495 9995 +188 //// 091023 023 027 001 01
999.5 mb

Other plane earlier
112330 2614N 08340W 6964 03148 9991 +130 +091 152012 013 023 001 00
 
HugeSnowStick said:
Really?

WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS, BULLOCH, CANDLER, COASTAL BRYAN, COASTAL CHATHAM, COASTAL
LIBERTY, COASTAL MCINTOSH, EFFINGHAM, EVANS, INLAND BRYAN, INLAND
CHATHAM, INLAND LIBERTY, INLAND MCINTOSH, JENKINS, LONG, SCREVEN
AND TATTNALL AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS, ALLENDALE, BEAUFORT, CHARLESTON, COASTAL COLLETON, COASTAL
JASPER, DORCHESTER, HAMPTON, INLAND BERKELEY, INLAND COLLETON,
INLAND JASPER AND TIDAL BERKELEY.

* WHEN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SEVERE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE AREA MID
TO LATE WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES,
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TOWARD 30 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
- HTTP://www.weather.gov/SAFETY/FLOOD
Click to expand...
Yea I adjusted to the latest trends today. Most of their forecast is banking on the consistent runs of yesterday and 0z. I know I caved some but you have to adjust to the newer runs imo.
 
The GFS is way off in left field literally, the ICON/Euro/Ukie all have it over or near eastern NC on Thursday, the GFS has it over the AL/GA border on its way back to the GOM....

ICON is by far the worse for up here in NC, that kind of rainfall will push the rivers especially the Tar well into flood stage.

This would be bad....the Euro is only half of this with about the same track as ICON....not sure how to take what the GFS is doing but for now it seems unlikely that the storm goes from off the GA coast to reentering the GOM at the AL/MS border....

1722773508421.png
 
Very broad center on the west side of deep convection. Would need to see that convection over the center or the center relocate under the convection for this to really blow up before the big bend. Still has some work to do
 
HugeSnowStick said:
Really?

WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS, BULLOCH, CANDLER, COASTAL BRYAN, COASTAL CHATHAM, COASTAL
LIBERTY, COASTAL MCINTOSH, EFFINGHAM, EVANS, INLAND BRYAN, INLAND
CHATHAM, INLAND LIBERTY, INLAND MCINTOSH, JENKINS, LONG, SCREVEN
AND TATTNALL AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS, ALLENDALE, BEAUFORT, CHARLESTON, COASTAL COLLETON, COASTAL
JASPER, DORCHESTER, HAMPTON, INLAND BERKELEY, INLAND COLLETON,
INLAND JASPER AND TIDAL BERKELEY.

* WHEN...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SEVERE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE AREA MID
TO LATE WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES,
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TOWARD 30 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
- HTTP://www.weather.gov/SAFETY/FLOOD
Click to expand...

This really is not supported at the moment by any model other than the crazy GFS runs....and it takes it 10 days to get to those type of totals. Certainly would expect 8-12" though in most of that area by Wed or Thursday.
 
Downeastnc said:
The GFS is way off in left field literally, the ICON/Euro/Ukie all have it over or near eastern NC on Thursday, the GFS has it over the AL/GA border on its way back to the GOM....

ICON is by far the worse for up here in NC, that kind of rainfall will push the rivers especially the Tar well into flood stage.

This would be bad....the Euro is only half of this with about the same track as ICON....not sure how to take what the GFS is doing but for now it seems unlikely that the storm goes from off the GA coast to reentering the GOM at the AL/MS border....

View attachment 149331
Click to expand...
Can’t say I agree with this. Easy to pick certain models but doesn’t the NHC have a little more western track? Hard to disagree with them. Not saying your opinion won’t be right just doesn’t seem so atm!
 
jeremyt said:
Can’t say I agree with this. Easy to pick certain models but doesn’t the NHC have a little more western track? Hard to disagree with them. Not saying your opinion won’t be right just doesn’t seem so atm!
Click to expand...

They dont make big changes update to update, they will continue to tick it east, unless the Euro/Icon and Ukie cave to the GFS which is very very unlikely at this point...but they cant just totally discount the GFS and to a lesser extent to the CMC...even the GFS ensembles that show a stronger system continue to trend east and I think some point today the GFS caves as usual.

1722775605813.png
the
 
Downeastnc said:
This really is not supported at the moment by any model other than the crazy GFS runs....and it takes it 10 days to get to those type of totals. Certainly would expect 8-12" though in most of that area by Wed or Thursday.
Click to expand...
NHC is on the western side of the envelope and is implicitly implying a slowdown or stallout which channels moisture on the eastern side of Debby into Coastal GA/SC as it crawls. I was looking at WPC individual day maps and each day generally has 5-8" rainfalls over a few days in the same general areas. Ultimately, they're relying on a blend of model averaging and implicitly stalling Debby out for a time.
 
Downeastnc said:
They dont make big changes update to update, they will continue to tick it east, unless the Euro/Icon and Ukie cave to the GFS which is very very unlikely at this point...but they cant just totally discount the GFS and to a lesser extent to the CMC...even the GFS ensembles that show a stronger system continue to trend east and I think some point today the GFS caves as usual.

View attachment 149332
the
Click to expand...
I understand that but you are posting the GEFS. , the gfs has been rather crazy. Maybe take a blend of all of them!
 
jeremyt said:
Maybe I missed a current run but didn’t it have a hard west turn back towards Ga/ Al ?
Click to expand...
Nothing to the extent of the op run. The ones that do hook it back wewt mostly stay over GA/SC while the a handful of members resemble the Euro and icon and more it offshore and up the coast
 
Hmmm? Look right to left as far as time frame!
 

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Shaggy said:
View attachment 149338
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Yeah if anything the GFS is spreading out, lots of variation in how it handles the ATL ridge strength and placement, which will obviously impact the path quite a bit.

The Euro is much more clustered around a SC/NC second landfall and shows only a few stall and west turns with the strongest storms clustered over eastern NC like the ICON so this makes sense weaker is west, so the weaker it is into Florida then the higher the chances it stalls and turns west maybe.

1722777826495.png
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah if anything the GFS is spreading out, lots of variation in how it handles the ATL ridge strength and placement, which will obviously impact the path quite a bit.

The Euro is much more clustered around a SC/NC second landfall and shows only a few stall and west turns with the strongest storms clustered over eastern NC like the ICON so this makes sense weaker is west, so the weaker it is into Florida then the higher the chances it stalls and turns west maybe.

View attachment 149341
Click to expand...
Probably going to be stronger than shown on models! Good call there!
 
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