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Hurricane Debby

HugeSnowStick said:
Some feeder bands are setting up east of ATL Metro, flying to the WNW.
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Those showers are moving west southwest and will not likely move much further north as the entire system is slowly moving off to the east northeast. Atlanta should stay fairly dry as well as many points west and southwest of the city. Some light rain accumulations between McDonough and Macon appear possible.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Wow that’s a big jump west at this lead time. Wonder what caused all of the models at 18Z to do that?
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IMO they’re really just starting to zero in on the EURO’s idea the last couple days of a landfall near or just south of Myrtle Beach. The big change on this is what happens after landfall and how soon it makes a north and eventual northeast turn. Many of those plots keep a NW or even WNW motion longer. The UKMET for instance now brings the center back to CLT before making the turn. I haven’t seen any of the 12z EURO because it’s not up on TT yet, but it will be interesting to see if it follows the UKMET on that idea. If it does then that set the stage for extreme rainfall totals all the back to the mountains
 
BullCityWx said:
and I would assume something moving as slow as this seems to be moving would dissipate them even more
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Right. You can even look at the current obs across inland southern GA and FL, winds are generally gusting in the 30s with a few gusts to around 40 scattered here and there. Power outage numbers are surprisingly high though, so that is interesting
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Wow that’s a big jump west at this lead time. Wonder what caused all of the models at 18Z to do that?
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Was about to say the same thing. If you get that track which is what I've been calling for which is Charleston to Camden to Monroe (that's actually a lot of more westerly solutions) we will get bigger rains back this way. If you get this to pass by Charlotte we definitely will.
 
thunderwolf said:
Right. You can even look at the current obs across inland southern GA and FL, winds are generally gusting in the 30s with a few gusts to around 40 scattered here and there. Power outage numbers are surprisingly high though, so that is interesting
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I have a cousin that lives in Valdosta and she has been without power since late yesterday evening. The highest wind gust they’ve had has been 48mph but she says it’s been a steady wind since yesterday evening. I’m guessing the ground is very saturated which means the winds don’t have to be too high to start knocking down trees….something to keep in mind for the eastern Carolinas later this week
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I wonder why the WPC and the local NWS vary so much? The WPC must be taking an average which includes the GFS which is likely wrong. Like I said yesterday a line from Greenwood to Union to Gastonia and east get big rain. Less than an inch west of there.
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Take it for what its worth but the UKIE and Euro AI are showing a swath of 2-5" and follow the most recent spaghetti models of landfall between Charleston and Myrtle beach and track WNW. Combine that with the stalled front and some higher than expected totals start to make sense. Highest will be Newberry to Union to Gaffney east where I think 4-7" is likely.
 
Chazwin said:
I have a cousin that lives in Valdosta and she has been without power since late yesterday evening. The highest wind gust they’ve had has been 48mph but she says it’s been a steady wind since yesterday evening. I’m guessing the ground is very saturated which means the winds don’t have to be too high to start knocking down trees….something to keep in mind for the eastern Carolinas later this week
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If it goes in that far south and heads that far west as the 18Z models show then i dont think wind will be an issue in SE NC
 
Chazwin said:
IMO they’re really just starting to zero in on the EURO’s idea the last couple days of a landfall near or just south of Myrtle Beach. The big change on this is what happens after landfall and how soon it makes a north and eventual northeast turn. Many of those plots keep a NW or even WNW motion longer. The UKMET for instance now brings the center back to CLT before making the turn. I haven’t seen any of the 12z EURO because it’s not up on TT yet, but it will be interesting to see if it follows the UKMET on that idea. If it does then that set the stage for extreme rainfall totals all the back to the mountains
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Euro is garden city beach to dillon to sanford to maybe south hill

And just a psa for everyone it starts running on pivotal around 130-145
 
iGRXY said:
Take it for what its worth but the UKIE and Euro AI are showing a swath of 2-5" and follow the most recent spaghetti models of landfall between Charleston and Myrtle beach and track WNW. Combine that with the stalled front and some higher than expected totals start to make sense. Highest will be Newberry to Union to Gaffney east where I think 4-7" is likely.
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Yeah, the Euro AI dumps over all but the far western parts of both states and if the center comes back to I-77, the upslope area of the NC foothills may have a problem. The regular Euro keeps the rain mostly east of 321, but a small shift would change things.
 
Chazwin said:
IMO they’re really just starting to zero in on the EURO’s idea the last couple days of a landfall near or just south of Myrtle Beach. The big change on this is what happens after landfall and how soon it makes a north and eventual northeast turn. Many of those plots keep a NW or even WNW motion longer. The UKMET for instance now brings the center back to CLT before making the turn. I haven’t seen any of the 12z EURO because it’s not up on TT yet, but it will be interesting to see if it follows the UKMET on that idea. If it does then that set the stage for extreme rainfall totals all the back to the mountains
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weather bubba said:
The 5:00 PM advisory from the National Weather Service will be interesting. I wonder if they will buy into the shift westward that the 18Z model runs are showing.
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I doubt they make any big changes. The factors that really push and pull this to the east then west track are still over the upper Midwest, canada, and out near bermuda. The only good thing about the slow motion is there's some time to adjust to a dramatic shift
 
Hmmmm....this is not a good change.

5:00 discussion.....

The tropical cyclone should continue to weaken while it moves over
land for the next day or so. By late Tuesday, assuming the center
of the system moves back over water, some re-intensification is
forecast. The NHC forecast continues to show only modest
restrengthening due to the uncertainties, although this may be
conservative.


153931_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
At hour 63, the ICON has bended back to the NW and is about to make landfall near Murrel’s Inlet/Garden City. Basically where the UKMET and EURO were. It’s still dropping pressure down to 965mb which just seems way too low.
 
Chazwin said:
At hour 63, the ICON has bended back to the NW and is about to make landfall near Murrel’s Inlet/Garden City. Basically where the UKMET and EURO were. It’s still dropping pressure down to 965mb which just seems way too low.
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Also, the Euro AI is not backing down at all and has the center all the way back to Chester County in SC at hour 84.
 
JHS said:
Also, the Euro AI is not backing down at all and has the center all the way back to Chester County in SC at hour 84.
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The ICON through hour 90 basically ended up following the 12z EURO so it’s another tick west after landfall. Just out of curiosity, how low does the EURO AI drop the pressure to?
 
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