Shaggy
Member
Wonder if the cmc is pulling off a rare win keeling this one onshore from here on out!
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Hurricane Debby
- Thread starter Brent
- Start date
jeremyt
Member
Have a hard time believing the Canadian with its returns on accuracy. Euro or ICON, I would believe.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah especially since then ukie is similar to those two models
Rgem seems worrisome. Pretty massive totals at 84 and still going strong.
jeremyt
Member
I could see the euro trending either way, doesn’t matter to me as I’m not going to see much outside of a few inches of rain. I’m just wondering how strong she’ll be on the 2nd land fall?
snowc
Member
Now we are dead. Debby is going to impact us.
Should be noted to take the High Risk serious and take non-tropical models showing 6” or less with a grain of salt. WPC :
By this point, the multi-day storm
accumulation will likely be in the double digits with maxes in the
20 to 30 inch range near the Savannah metro and all along the
Carolina Coastal Plain. With rainfall of the caliber catastrophic
flooding would be likely/definite and compounded by coastal surge
and waves. A High Risk is in effect for much of Carolina Coastal
Plain with a Moderate spanning from southeast Georgia to southern
North Carolina.
By this point, the multi-day storm
accumulation will likely be in the double digits with maxes in the
20 to 30 inch range near the Savannah metro and all along the
Carolina Coastal Plain. With rainfall of the caliber catastrophic
flooding would be likely/definite and compounded by coastal surge
and waves. A High Risk is in effect for much of Carolina Coastal
Plain with a Moderate spanning from southeast Georgia to southern
North Carolina.
snowc
Member
Winds are going to be atm for my city at high teens low 20s.
jeremyt
Member
Good to see the local NWS tossing the GFS for the time being, local discussion!
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 137 AM Monday: Starting to feel an uptick in confidence for
the latter part of the week, what with some of the medium range
guidance coming into better agreement and more in line with the
Day 4-5 guidance from NHC on the fate of Debby or its remnant. That
is to say, as long as we throw out the GFS as an outlier. In this
scenario, the remnant circulation would pass close enough Friday on
its northward trek across NC to bring better chances of precip over
the western Piedmont and to raise the threat of flash flooding,
particularly from the I-77 corridor eastward, for Thursday and
Friday. The mtns would be spared the significant rainfall and we
would see a gradient along the spine of the Appalachians. Extensive
clouds and precip and northeast winds would keep high temps five
degrees below normal or more on Thursday and Friday, while low temps
remain mild. If we keep ignoring the GFS solution, we might actually
salvage much of the weekend as the remnant circulation would be
departing on Saturday. That would bring a return to normal temps
for the rest of the period and nominal 20-30 pct precip chances,
which would probably trend lower with subsidence/downslope in the
wake of the system.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 137 AM Monday: Starting to feel an uptick in confidence for
the latter part of the week, what with some of the medium range
guidance coming into better agreement and more in line with the
Day 4-5 guidance from NHC on the fate of Debby or its remnant. That
is to say, as long as we throw out the GFS as an outlier. In this
scenario, the remnant circulation would pass close enough Friday on
its northward trek across NC to bring better chances of precip over
the western Piedmont and to raise the threat of flash flooding,
particularly from the I-77 corridor eastward, for Thursday and
Friday. The mtns would be spared the significant rainfall and we
would see a gradient along the spine of the Appalachians. Extensive
clouds and precip and northeast winds would keep high temps five
degrees below normal or more on Thursday and Friday, while low temps
remain mild. If we keep ignoring the GFS solution, we might actually
salvage much of the weekend as the remnant circulation would be
departing on Saturday. That would bring a return to normal temps
for the rest of the period and nominal 20-30 pct precip chances,
which would probably trend lower with subsidence/downslope in the
wake of the system.
HugeSnowStick
Member
The waffling of models here is funny, if the GFS said widespread 30-inch snow totals, (winter), you wouldn't toss that one, would you?
RGEM has a 1"/hr band that just rakes I-95 corridor and is still going strong at the end of the run as you noted. Some massive QPF totals already. It has been quite consistent with the totals and they are definitely possible IMO.
weather bubba
Member
That map is troubling for the Eastern portions of the Carolinas and Georgia. It dumps over twenty inches of rain in some locations and Debby is still meandering through South Carolina on Thursday. Add that to the ten plus inches that some areas have received recently and you are looking at some major if not catastrophic flooding along the rivers in those places.
jeremyt
Member
I would after the past few years!
Downeastnc
Member
Certainly does seem that we could see widespread river flooding that will rival Matthew and Florence or even the other F name storm I will not utter.
jeremyt
Member
Fran? Nothing like that since. Flooding may have been worse in the coastal counties in 99 but Sep 6 1996 will be etched into my mind as the worst storm I have lived through.
Yeah. I'm not saying the rgem is right, but it feels like to me that some of the other models are under-doing the amounts over inland sections. The rgem feels extreme, but the system may end up being very slow moving, like the models have been showing. And if that continues to be the case, I would expect higher amounts to be reflected across the board as we move in.
He’s referring to Floyd in 1999
Downeastnc
Member
Fran was bad gusted to 110 here at PGV and was by far the windiest cane here in my lifetime...I meant Floyd though who is the benchmark for flooding on the Tar and Neuse..
jeremyt
Member
I would say that it’s an outlier same as the gfs. Don’t see agreement from it from other models or the NHC track at the moment. It could happen but I doubt it at the moment!
jeremyt
Member
Understood , Fran is my memory but understand Floyd for your location! I had just flown out to be stationed in Okinawa for a year but looked at the news for the area of the Neuse/Trent. Catastrophic flooding from Goldsboro to the Coast.
Last edited: