Hurricane Debby

[Stormsfury]

18z HWRF
975 at landfall
982 into south GA.....spins there through Tuesday.
In previous runs, it never makes it to the Atlantic. Meanders back to AL, like the GFS.
Watching to see what this run does.

View attachment 149399

View attachment 149400

The HWRF is run on the GFS background so not surprised it would show a similar outcome.

 

[Chazwin]

The HWRF is run on the GFS background so not surprised it would show a similar outcome.

Thanks for mentioning that. Do you know background the other hurricane models run from?

 

[Stormsfury]

Thanks for mentioning that. Do you know background the other hurricane models run from?

I don't know, I think HMON might also run on the GFS background but I could be way off.

 

[Chazwin]

I don't know, I think HMON might also run on the GFS background but I could be way off.

Looking at the 18z HMON, it exits the coast around Hilton Head, spins and drifts around offshore for 48 hours and then comes due west landfalling near CHS.

 

[ENCSnowdawg]

 

[Henry2326]

18z HWRF
975 at landfall
982 into south GA.....spins there through Tuesday.
In previous runs, it never makes it to the Atlantic. Meanders back to AL, like the GFS.
Watching to see what this run does.

View attachment 149399

View attachment 149400

It never makes it to the Atlantic. It spins in GA through Wednesday and then heads back to the gulf.

 

[lexxnchloe]

No change on Euro

 

[ChrisAMB]

I mean the NHC 5-day cone in theory could have the center of circulation around Vidalia, GA on Friday. Seems like it'll be one of those weird ones.

 

[Downeastnc]

Why would they have two recon flights going at the same time, why not stagger them? Anyways pressure looks to be down to 987.

 

[accu35]

HWRF has Debbie hitting BB then merge back west into the gulf as a 992/993 storm at Mobile Bay

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

HWRF has Debbie hitting BB then merge back west into the gulf as a 992/993 storm at Mobile Bay

HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS

 

[Stevo24]

This is where the fun begins.

 

[jeremyt]

I would think a mix of the model solutions. Although the storm seems to be east of guidance which could lead to a storm over the grand strand into E NC.

 

[Snow_chaser]

I would think a mix of the model solutions. Although the storm seems to be east of guidance which could lead to a storm over the grand strand into E NC.

Dr Levi Cowan posted this about an hour ago.

 

[Downeastnc]

Down a couple MB on the new fix...close to a cane now probably be 75-80 at 11...

 

[Henry2326]

00z

 

[Shaggy]

00z

View attachment 149410

Looks like more clearance from land once in the antlantic before the north turn

 

[Henry2326]

I spy a little eye.....

 

[Henry2326]

Looks like more clearance from land once in the antlantic before the north turn

I'll be shocked if it's not a cat 1 coming onshore to SC.

 

[Chazwin]

Looks like more clearance from land once in the antlantic before the north turn

It does, but it also looks like the plots are favoring a bit sharper of a turn back to the north and northwest. All of those plots have a 2nd landfall south of the NC/SC border

 

[Shaggy]

It does, but it also looks like the plots are favoring a bit sharper of a turn back to the north and northwest. All of those plots have a 2nd landfall south of the NC/SC border

Yeah Georgetown to Cape Fear is the consensus but if it gets further east like the icon then out to lookout needs to be watching.

 

[Shaggy]

Anyone know if they are gonna run G4 missions off the east coast early this week?

 

[Brent]

Why would they have two recon flights going at the same time, why not stagger them? Anyways pressure looks to be down to 987.

It's a common thing during landfalling hurricanes

 

[Brent]

It appears we have a hurricane on recon now

 

[lexxnchloe]

Euro at 90

 

[JHS]

I still think the ICON is right and everything else is too far west. As far as heavy rain goes it'll be along Highway 1 and east for the most part. Charlotte may get .50 out of it and the GSP metro not a drop. Even Columbia SC may get very little out of it.

 

[Tarheel1]

I still think the ICON is right and everything else is too far west. As far as heavy rain goes it'll be along Highway 1 and east for the most part. Charlotte may get .50 out of it and the GSP metro not a drop. Even Columbia SC may get very little out of it.

Must be showing the least rain for the upstate??

 

[iGRXY]

There’s a reason the NHC isn’t using the ICON. There’s 2 clusters on the spaghetti models. One that landfalls around Beaufort then takes it up 26 and then through the upstate and Piedmont and one that favors the Myrtle Beach landfall and then I95. Take the middle of them and you’re looking at a landfall near Charleston/McClellanville up towards Monroe and Wadesboro.

 

[iGRXY]

I still think the ICON is right and everything else is too far west. As far as heavy rain goes it'll be along Highway 1 and east for the most part. Charlotte may get .50 out of it and the GSP metro not a drop. Even Columbia SC may get very little out of it.

Good lord this is sad at this point

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

TICKED BACK WEST AND DOWN TO 986MB

 

[Chazwin]

I still think the ICON is right and everything else is too far west. As far as heavy rain goes it'll be along Highway 1 and east for the most part. Charlotte may get .50 out of it and the GSP metro not a drop. Even Columbia SC may get very little out of it.

I’m not saying it’s wrong, because this is such a difficult storm to nail down the track. However, the ICON is on a bit of an island by itself right now with how far north up the coast it makes landfall. You can look at the latest guidance plots that the NHC uses and none of them landfall north of the NC/SC line. We need to remember, we often look at the ICON because it’s available to us, but the NWS doesn’t really give it any weight in their forecast discussions.

 

[JHS]

The NAM is about 75-100 miles east of its 18z run. This is headed for the Cape Lookout NC area and on northeast from there.

 

[NCSNOW]

Shes still sucking in dry air from the sw and def not gonna rapid intensify soon, with two seperated deep blobs per sat

 

[accu35]

Shes still sucking in dry air from the sw and def not gonna rapid intensify soon, with two seperated deep blobs per sat

View attachment 149426

I wonder if those two blobs will split and ones goes the gfs direction and the other goes the other direction

 

[Chazwin]

The NAM is about 75-100 miles east of its 18z run. This is headed for the Cape Lookout NC area and on northeast from there.

Ok just stop. You’re just throwing darts and seeing if they’ll stick. Even the ICON that you’re convinced is correct has the storm moving inland NNW in eastern NC and doesn’t make a turn until almost the NC/VA line.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Won’t make it to 120 I was wrong. CAT1 is max potential for Florida. And this also lowers it chances over the Atlantic from becoming a hurricane imo.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Nam is confusing to me but this Nam is east of where it was at 18Z tues at 12z

 

[Chazwin]

Won’t make it to 120 I was wrong. CAT1 is max potential for Florida. And this also lowers it chances over the Atlantic from becoming a hurricane imo.

I think if it is back over open water for 36 hours, it will become a hurricane again, but I don’t believe it will get anywhere close to the 959mb that the ICON is showing.

 

[iGRXY]

This thing also not rapidly intensifying will also sway it from going further east than initially thought as well

 

[iGRXY]

I think if it is back over open water for 36 hours, it will become a hurricane again, but I don’t believe it will get anywhere close to the 959mb that the ICON is showing.

That’s one reason why I think the Icon is way off. It is wayyyy too strong which favors a more eastern track and thus a much further north landfall.