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Hurricane Debby

Debby is sustaining the current convective blow up very well, and of course no recon but we do have radar so at least there is some idea as to the winds etc...
 
JHS said:
It sure is. I have no idea where this run will lead, but if this is close to being right Savannah and Charleston are in trouble rainfall wise.
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Yep. I'm certainly not downplaying this as a whole. This is going to be worse than 2015 for the state of SC for the eastern half. More rain and over a larger area. This includes coastal GA and eastern NC. Back here I think we're in good shape to avoid anything major. I think I got more rain last night by far from that stationary storm (2-3 inches) than I'll get off Debby in the next week. And I'm ok with that. I was in Columbia for 2015 and it wasn't fun. Give me clouds and showers and with any luck we'll have sinking air on the backside and cooler temps
 
The 18z GFS shows what’s gonna happen regardless of the center. Atlantic moisture pushes inland over all of the s/e and the front is involved in the west. The only thing people are upset about is it not showing a strong cane into NC. The NHC has never showed that. The ICON, folks, must be thrown out. I’ll eat my hat if it’s right.
 
JHS said:
There is no way the GFS is right. A blend of the ICON and Euro is where this is headed meaning much of SC and NC are in for a lot of rain.
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If the GFS is right its just going to br the same ol hot and humid in NC. I wish it would move fast NE and miss east so we could get some dry cooler air behind it. The GFS is just summer misery nonstop.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
We'll have to see when short range models come into range if they start picking up on more interaction with the front. The Euro isn't at the moment. As far as SE flow and upslope that would occur when the center is off the GA coast. My opinion we're too far away. Once the center gets to Lumberton , even though its closer the SE flow here is gone.
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Even BRad P has discussed he expects much more rainfall that what's being forecasted on the NW side and a stalled front backs that up.
 
lexxnchloe said:
If the GFS is right its just going to br the same ol hot and humid in NC. I wish it would move fast NE and miss east so we could get some dry cooler air behind it. The GFS is just summer misery nonstop.
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This thing is still going a WEEK from now near Tallahassee. I don't think so.
 
lexxnchloe said:
If the GFS is right its just going to br the same ol hot and humid in NC. I wish it would move fast NE and miss east so we could get some dry cooler air behind it. The GFS is just summer misery nonstop.
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Negative. Even NC sees a foot of rain with the GFS. Don’t worry about the center or eye. Look at your Atlantic feed and stalled front. All solutions are flooding. Esp for Wilmington. It’s always harder to forecast west of Raleigh but a lot of people are gonna get soaked with the setup.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Negative. Even NC sees a foot of rain with the GFS. Don’t worry about the center or eye. Look at your Atlantic feed and stalled front. All solutions are flooding. Esp for Wilmington. It’s always harder to forecast west of Raleigh but a lot of people are gonna get soaked with the setup.
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Well, ive seen rain, its wet and i will be delighted if it doesnt dump a bunch of rain here
 
iGRXY said:
Even BRad P has discussed he expects much more rainfall that what's being forecasted on the NW side and a stalled front backs that up.
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IF the GFS is somehow close to being right someone near that front is in for a surprise, because with that low in GA upslope moisture would come up against it for at least 2-3 days if not longer. A secondary max of 10+ could be realized somewhere near the front, probably in the upslope favored NC and SC foothills. Maybe the metros of Charlotte and GSP too.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Just normal bias. Me, Downeast, Shaggy look at the ICON because its far more exciting here. People in Charleston or Savannah are going to like the GFS much more. Others the Euro.
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18z GFS dumps 2 feet over you. Actually hits you again August 13th.
 
Radar suggests a PRE may be forming over water from Richmond Hill Georgia to Charlestown South Carolina with flooding occurring later this evening before Debby arrives. The Atlantic is awake a bit early.
 
JHS said:
IF the GFS is somehow close to being right someone near that front is in for a surprise, because with that low in GA upslope moisture would come up against it for at least 2-3 days if not longer. A secondary max of 10+ could be realized somewhere near the front, probably in the upslope favored NC and SC foothills. Maybe the metros of Charlotte and GSP too.
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The only reason that I’m not completely dismissing the GFS on the track is because the hurricane models all do something similar. Yes it goes against climo, but like I mentioned last night weird things happen when steering breakdown…see Florence in 2018.
 
iGRXY said:
Even BRad P has discussed he expects much more rainfall that what's being forecasted on the NW side and a stalled front backs that up.
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I think Brad P is playing it safe because if somehow the GFS is even half correct here then we could get big rain. If any other global model is correct we get less than an inch. If it takes a Euro track and we get big rains anyway I will gladly own my failed prediction
 
Chazwin said:
The only reason that I’m not completely dismissing the GFS on the track is because the hurricane models all do something similar. Yes it goes against climo, but like I mentioned last night weird things happen when steering breakdown…see Florence in 2018.
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I guess what it comes down to is we know 100% there will be changes in the modeling. Right now all we can do is go on what we have at the moment. Today the General consensus is a storm basically riding up the Georgia and Carolina coast. It's clear the NHC puts more weight on the Euro than any model. Whether they admit that or not idk. But center of the cone almost always follows what the Euro shows
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I guess what it comes down to is we know 100% there will be changes in the modeling. Right now all we can do is go on what we have at the moment. Today the General consensus is a storm basically riding up the Georgia and Carolina coast. It's clear the NHC puts more weight on the Euro than any model. Whether they admit that or not idk. But center of the cone almost always follows what the Euro shows
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It’s hard to argue against leaning towards the Euro with how well it’s done on tracks the last few years
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I guess what it comes down to is we know 100% there will be changes in the modeling. Right now all we can do is go on what we have at the moment. Today the General consensus is a storm basically riding up the Georgia and Carolina coast. It's clear the NHC puts more weight on the Euro than any model. Whether they admit that or not idk. But center of the cone almost always follows what the Euro shows
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Started before Hurricane Sandy but dang it nailed it so freakishly early with that west hook it even scared me with how powerful the EURO really is. 😳
 
18z HWRF
975 at landfall
982 into south GA.....spins there through Tuesday.
In previous runs, it never makes it to the Atlantic. Meanders back to AL, like the GFS.
Watching to see what this run does.

hwrf_ref_04L_fh15-15.gif

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Chazwin said:
The only reason that I’m not completely dismissing the GFS on the track is because the hurricane models all do something similar. Yes it goes against climo, but like I mentioned last night weird things happen when steering breakdown…see Florence in 2018.
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Exactly the spaghetti models have several members that do exactly what the GFS is showing so it’s not on an island by itself technically
 
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