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Hurricane Debby

I didn't think about kids already being back in school. Ours don't go back until the 19th.

I had a chance to peek at historical river data for our big floods. 10/6/2016 a couple days before Matthew hit SC the Little Pee Dee at Galivants Ferry was at 7.1'. On 10/12 it was at 17' and catastrophic flooding.

On 9/14/2018 the river was at 3.0' and hit 17' again on the 20th.

As of right now it's at 8.2' at the very same gauge. I used this gauge because it's downstream from the confluence of the Little Pee Dee/Lumber Rivers and is a good analogue for other coastal plain rivers like the Black, Waccamaw and so on. The Great Pee Dee and Cape Fear are so dependent on upstream water releases so I didn't use them.
 
GaWx said:
I saw 6 bags/house.
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I wish there was a way to drain Daffin Park before storms arrived. You would think…even Lake Meyer. Forget the fish we need less water. Other towns and states do it.
 
Rain Cold said:
Icon is underestimating precip on the west/northwest side, as the system eventually slides north.
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That’s what Brad P seems to think as well. He says the stalled front interaction with Debby should lead to a much more expansive precipitation shield to the west of the track
 
Beautiful weather in the Bahamas the past couple of days on a cruise. Thankful that the system stayed west of here.

Supposed to fly out of Orlando tomorrow but not sure if that will happen without at least significant delays but at this point whatever happens, happens.
 
Chazwin said:
That’s what Brad P seems to think as well. He says the stalled front interaction with Debby should lead to a much more expansive precipitation shield to the west of the track
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This is why I think 2-5" is a good bet even back my way with closer to 4-8" back towards 77
 
Chazwin said:
That’s what Brad P seems to think as well. He says the stalled front interaction with Debby should lead to a much more expansive precipitation shield to the west of the track
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Is it just me or has that stalled front made eastward progress today?
 
Getting there, still struggling just a bit to really wrap the center...that band hitting the coast now though is nasty..

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SD said:
Might be about to really take off with this new burst of convection
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You can see her trying to form and clear out a eye like feature on the vis loop....some legit hot towers firing as well she is close to having her 💩 together.
 
I'm about 2 mi from the ocean in Mount Pleasant across the river from Charleston. My elevation's about 16 ft. Hopefully it'll be all right! Back in 2015 Mount Pleasant didn't have much flooding surprisingly when 27 inches of rain fell.
 
JHS said:
The ICON says no, and it will probably be right. It has never really changed course and climatology also favors it.
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Of the icon is right then adding it was first to show the turn into Texas for Beryl it will be more closely watched during the heart of the season
 
JHS said:
The ICON says no, and it will probably be right. It has never really changed course and climatology also favors it.
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What's with the ICON love all of a sudden? Euro/GFS/Ukie blend has preformed way better over the years. The NHC doesn't even mention it.


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JHS said:
The ICON says no, and it will probably be right. It has never really changed course and climatology also favors it.
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Even if the ICON is dead on about the track, as Brad P noted earlier today, it’s likely very much under modeling the extent westward of the rainfall shield. The interaction with the stalled front should make a much more expansive rain shield to the west of the track
 
BHS1975 said:
What's with the ICON love all of a sudden? Euro/GFS/Ukie blend has preformed way better over the years. The NHC doesn't even mention it.


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Personally if I had to make a call right now on a track, I would favor somewhere between the 12z Euro and the 18z ICON with a lean to the Euro simply because of how well it’s done on forecast tracks the last few years. Also I think the Icon is likely overdoing the strengthening off the SC coast which is part of the reason it goes furth north. Both models make a turn back to the NNW with the Euro doing it sooner with landfall just south Myrtle Beach and the ICON does it later leading to a landfall closer to Cape Lookout.
 
At some point, a decision will need to be made to issue Hurricane Warnings for the East Coast. This thing is trying to go east and will likely want to jump back over water quickly before stalling.
 
BHS1975 said:
What's with the ICON love all of a sudden? Euro/GFS/Ukie blend has preformed way better over the years. The NHC doesn't even mention it.


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It more that its been very consistent, plus is did well with Beryl overall, called the turn into TX first...
 
Chazwin said:
Even if the ICON is dead on about the track, as Brad P noted earlier today, it’s likely very much under modeling the extent westward of the rainfall shield. The interaction with the stalled front should make a much more expansive rain shield to the west of the track
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Everyone is focused on their backyard. Your area is a lot different than mine or Shetleys area. You'll get big rain regardless. The Euro basically has nothing back this way either. A storm running the coast like this doesn't normally get the rainshield back this far. Hermine in 2016 didn't. Matthew in 2016 didn't. Seems as though there was one last year or the year before didn't. I don't pay much attention to that saying precip is always under modeled nw. It isn't with tropical systems. Climo says draw a line from Greenwood up through Union and Gastonia and anywhere west of that gets clouds and showers. Less than an inch for I85 from Atlanta to Gastonia. Brad P was talking about mainly nw NC into VA if the storm stalls and drifts nw while over NC it could interact with the front more up in that area.
 
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2 Clusters centered near Beaufort, SC and McClellanville, SC. Both would be some serious flooding inland. One thing about the stalled front is it will not only make the precip shield more expansive on the NW side but will also pull the precip shield naturally more towards the western side of the storm as it tracks further inland.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Everyone is focused on their backyard. Your area is a lot different than mine or Shetleys area. You'll get big rain regardless. The Euro basically has nothing back this way either. A storm running the coast like this doesn't normally get the rainshield back this far. Hermine in 2016 didn't. Matthew in 2016 didn't. Seems as though there was one last year or the year before didn't. I don't pay much attention to that saying precip is always under modeled nw. It isn't with tropical systems. Climo says draw a line from Greenwood up through Union and Gastonia and anywhere west of that gets clouds and showers. Less than an inch for I85 from Atlanta to Gastonia. Brad P was talking about mainly nw NC into VA if the storm stalls and drifts nw while over NC it could interact with the front more up in that area.
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Difference is there's a stalled front in this scenario that will enforce more precip back our way. If we get the Euro's track from 12z where it is situated closer to Lumberton, NC we will get more rain than the totals it spit out.
 
iGRXY said:
Difference is there's a stalled front in this scenario that will enforce more precip back our way. If we get the Euro's track from 12z where it is situated closer to Lumberton, NC we will get more rain than the totals it spit out.
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We'll have to see when short range models come into range if they start picking up on more interaction with the front. The Euro isn't at the moment. As far as SE flow and upslope that would occur when the center is off the GA coast. My opinion we're too far away. Once the center gets to Lumberton , even though its closer the SE flow here is gone.
 
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