Hurricane Debby

[NoSnowATL]

Anymore west trends and @accu35 might pass out.

 

[Henry2326]

Anymore west trends and @accu35 might pass out.

View attachment 149272

Dead on to Icon 12z.

 

[NoSnowATL]

This is very close to Mexico Beach isnt it ?

Its close if true

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Its close if true

Closer to Apalachicola actually

 

[FortMillSCWx]

Hype...or facts. Which wins out?

 

[Arcc]

This trend here is very dangerous for the FL coast and those to the west of the current track. Slower is a problem.

 

[Downeastnc]

ICON seems to buck the stall/loop idea and just keeps it moving...

 

[accu35]

12z cmc west and same area as the Nam

 

[NoSnowATL]

12z cmc west and same area as the Nam

 

[Arcc]

ICON seems to buck the stall/loop idea and just keeps it moving...

Honestly it should keep moving. The weakness between the ridges and the trough over the NE is consistent. I think if a stall would happen it would be over FL/GA due to the system slowing and it missing the weakness/ridge building back over head. .

 

[Downeastnc]

Honestly it should keep moving. The weakness between the ridges and the trough over the NE is consistent. I think if a stall would happen it would be over FL/GA due to the system slowing and it missing the weakness/ridge building back over head. .

I see it the same way, it's not like the door gets slammed shut on it...what the GFS is running right now is insanity.

 

[lexxnchloe]

I see it the same way, it's not like the door gets slammed shut on it...

ICON holds steady

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

View attachment 149277

GFS is just a rainy buzzkill for NC. This may never get back over water again until its too far north and weak to matter.

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[Caesar]

I see it the same way, it's not like the door gets slammed shut on it...what the GFS is running right now is insanity.

Wasn’t the GFS one of the only models showing the storm forming in the GoM? Might not be that crazy.


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[snowc]

GFS is just a rainy buzzkill for NC. This may never get back over water again until its too far north and weak to matter.

We're dead.

 

[GaWx]

12Z UK: similar to 0Z with LF just E of Apalachicola; then NNE move to WC GA, then ENE/E to CHS, then turns up coast NNE into E NC followed by NE through VA, NE US, SE Can: not as bad flood threat vs other models due to less slowing SE US followed by accel. with it already in NC at 120 vs near GA/SC border GFS/CMC/0Z Euro:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 81.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2024 0 21.9N 81.3W 1010 27
0000UTC 04.08.2024 12 24.2N 84.0W 1007 31
1200UTC 04.08.2024 24 26.2N 84.7W 1005 40
0000UTC 05.08.2024 36 27.8N 84.9W 1002 46
1200UTC 05.08.2024 48 29.1N 85.1W 1002 45
0000UTC 06.08.2024 60 30.3N 84.6W 1003 30
1200UTC 06.08.2024 72 32.0N 83.9W 1003 37
0000UTC 07.08.2024 84 32.6N 82.4W 997 38
1200UTC 07.08.2024 96 32.6N 80.2W 996 37
0000UTC 08.08.2024 108 33.0N 79.4W 995 40
1200UTC 08.08.2024 120 34.6N 78.8W 996 43
0000UTC 09.08.2024 132 35.8N 78.1W 998 36
1200UTC 09.08.2024 144 37.7N 76.2W 1000 44
0000UTC 10.08.2024 156 42.2N 72.2W 999 36
1200UTC 10.08.2024 168 47.2N 66.3W 996 35

 

[Shaggy]

Seems to me looking at vis images that we may see a center relocation to just SW of key west?

 

[lexxnchloe]

Just looking at this its no Camille, thats for sure. Still looks like dry air is a big problem. If it can really slow down then i could see a 95-100 mph cane hitting the Panhandle.