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Hurricane Debby

9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicate that Debby
continues to intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite
imagery shows that the cloud pattern is becoming better developed
with increasing deep convection near the center of circulation, and
WSR-88D radar data indicate that an eyewall is beginning to form.
The current intensity estimate is estimated to be 55 kt based on a
significant drop in central pressure reported the aircraft.

The cyclone has been turning gradually to the right and the initial
motion is north-northwestward or 330/11 kt. Over the next day or
so, Debby should move through a weakness in the mid-level
subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States and reach the
northeast Gulf of Mexico coast in the Florida Big Bend region on
Monday. After the system makes landfall, the steering currents are
likely to weaken as a trough over the northeastern U.S. moves
eastward from the area, which should result in a decrease in forward
speed. There is significant uncertainty in the track of Debby in
the 2-5 day time frame. Much of the track guidance keeps the center
over the southeastern U.S. for the next several days as a ridge
builds in over the Carolinas. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one and close to the HFIP corrected
consensus prediction. This keeps the slow-moving center near the
Georgia and South Carolina coast in the 3 to 5 day time-frame.

Debby will be moving over very warm waters and in a low-vertical
shear environment prior to landfall. Therefore significant
strengthening is likely through tonight, especially if the cyclone
forms a well-defined inner core The official forecast is near the
high side of the objective guidance and calls for the system to
become a hurricane within 12 hours. The cyclone will weaken after
it moves inland, but since the system will not be far from the
coastline for the next few days, it is not predicted to fall below
tropical storm strength through 72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding
impacts from the Florida Big Bend region through southeast GA and
the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through Friday. Potentially
historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina
through Friday morning may result in areas of catastrophic
flooding. Significant river flooding is also expected.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above
ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River and
Suwannee River on Monday. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the
Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area.

4. Impacts from storm surge and strong winds are possible along the
southeast coast from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
the week, and storm surge watches and tropical storm watches have
been issued for portions of these areas. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 27.0N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 28.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 29.9N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 30.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1200Z 31.6N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 07/0000Z 31.9N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/1200Z 32.2N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1200Z 35.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
 
NHC says "There is significant uncertainty in the track of Debby in
the 2-5 day time frame."

12z ICON for this period.

icon_mslp_pcpn_seus_fh45-96.gif
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah some of these runs are big bad for the central and eastern Carolina's river systems.....just last night the headwaters of the Tar here in eastern NC got 4-5 inches and there is already a good chunk of water headed downstream....


View attachment 149363
Click to expand...
I keep thinking Floyd part two. Remember these type pictures:
1722788481738.png
 
FallsLake said:
I keep thinking Floyd part two. Remember these type pictures:
View attachment 149365
Click to expand...
Lived it. Stood looking on as a fast water rescue was underway for a man who was swept away. He did not survive. Stood in my parents back yard and watched them rescue people by helicopter across the highway along the tar River.
 
This is something that makes sense. The hurricane should head to the area of convection to its NE. If i were betting i would say missing east is more likely than it dying in Alabama/ I will stick with just west of Hatteras for now. Would be interesting to know if there are pressure falls off the NC coast now.

 
12Z UKMET has major changes from prior UK runs:

-much slower movement
-now turns E/ESE to offshore GA/lower SC at a time when 0Z was already well up the NC coast
-while offshore restrengthens and then turns N with landfall at Georgetown, SC
-moves N into E NC

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 26.5N 84.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2024 0 26.5N 84.1W 1001 42
0000UTC 05.08.2024 12 28.3N 84.4W 997 51
1200UTC 05.08.2024 24 29.7N 84.1W 996 40
0000UTC 06.08.2024 36 30.8N 83.6W 1000 32
1200UTC 06.08.2024 48 31.9N 82.5W 1000 39
0000UTC 07.08.2024 60 31.8N 81.7W 997 39
1200UTC 07.08.2024 72 31.4N 79.9W 993 47
0000UTC 08.08.2024 84 31.7N 79.0W 990 46
1200UTC 08.08.2024 96 32.2N 79.0W 988 40
0000UTC 09.08.2024 108 32.7N 79.2W 989 39
1200UTC 09.08.2024 120 33.7N 79.2W 993 42
0000UTC 10.08.2024 132 34.1N 79.2W 996 38
1200UTC 10.08.2024 144 35.7N 78.2W 1001 35
0000UTC 11.08.2024 156 36.7N 76.7W 1003 43
1200UTC 11.08.2024 168 37.3N 73.8W 1002 43
 
Radar loop still looks like the center is drifting NE tucking in under the MLC and is close to being stacked at this point....recon should be doing a center fix right about now.....
 
NCSNOW said:
Kid lives right at Lockwood Folly. Let me know if you come across any tide gauge, flood etc web sites, to keep tabs on things. Im looking now, sure they are out there and I think you are in Brunswick County, when you moved, correct? Thanks in Advance!
Click to expand...
tides.willyweather.com

Lockwoods Folly Inlet Tide Times, NC - WillyWeather

Lockwoods Folly Inlet Tides updated daily. Detailed forecast tide charts and tables with past and future low and high tide times
tides.willyweather.com tides.willyweather.com
 
Does the stubborn, crazy GFS still have support from its ensembles offshore the SE? Yes as 75% of 12Z GEFS members go back NW into the SE coast CHS south. This is similar to prior GEFS.
 
12z HWRF......been waiting on this.
Stronger into FL.....979
Stronger into south GA......989
Watching the rest of the run.

18z should be telling.


hwrf_ref_04L_fh18-18.gif
hwrf_ref_04L_fh33-33.gif
 
@Shaggy get your insurance updated?

I"M TELLING you, if Model projections (hold) this might, look like Floyd(s) child play..
I know, I lived in Town Creek back in those days.. (Winnibow)..
I recall, seen what 133 going to SouthPort was/looked like.. After Floyd..

You very well might have the Cape fear River AND Town creek in/under/OVER your house!
 
SENC said:
@Shaggy get your insurance updated?

I"M TELLING you, if Model projections (hold) this might, look like Floyd(s) child play..
I know, I lived in Town Creek back in those days.. (Winnibow)..
I recall, seen what 133 going to SouthPort was/looked like.. After Floyd..

You very well might have the Cape fear River AND Town creek in/under/OVER your house!
Click to expand...
I'm fairly elevated here and neighbors have said this area does t flood so we will see
 
@Shaggy, your "neighbors are full of (sh) it".. That (hood) didn't exist before, Florence, much less Floyd..
 
SENC said:
@Shaggy get your insurance updated?

I"M TELLING you, if Model projections (hold) this might, look like Floyd(s) child play..
I know, I lived in Town Creek back in those days.. (Winnibow)..
I recall, seen what 133 going to SouthPort was/looked like.. After Floyd..

You very well might have the Cape fear River AND Town creek in/under/OVER your house!
Click to expand...
I heard FEMA insurance is pretty cheap. My bro pays under 100 dollars a month for his and he lives in Florida.
 
12Z Euro: LF 50 miles SW of 0Z Euro or 15 miles SW of Myrtle Beach then moving NNW. This is also 100 miles N of the 12Z UKMET hour 96.
Then to Florence followed by Fayetteville as it weakens.
Extremely heavy rain CHS to MYR.
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro: LF 50 miles SW of 0Z Euro or 15 miles SW of Myrtle Beach then moving NNW. This is also 100 miles N of the 12Z UKMET hour 96.
Then to Florence followed by Fayetteville as it weakens.
Extremely heavy rain CHS to MYR.
Click to expand...
Looks quite a bit further west than Fayetteville to me. Looks like it stalls over Lumberton then makes the slow trek up to Burlington, NC.
 
SENC said:
@Shaggy, your "neighbors are full of (sh) it".. That (hood) didn't exist before, Florence, much less Floyd..
Click to expand...
Trying to plug in on Fema,Gov maps, assess things is painstaking. Ugh.. Maybe its where im using phone. Ill try again tommorow at work. Just trying to get a good idea. House was built post Florence, so thats best rule of thumb to use around those neck of woods. Again, if not needed for Debby, she will contribute heavily to the next one. What made Floyd so bad was Dennis, then Floyd going into a comma ,not moving hardly over eastern NC
 
City of Savannah having press conference at 3pm to discuss school and possible evacuations.
 
Little Pee Dee at Galivants Ferry has plateaued for a few days now and most likely won’t drop before the rains set in. Take these predictions for what they are. *If* the rain comes slow enough we can probably manage. I do worry about the potential for inches of rain on top of the area wide heavy totals we had in July and how this may affect power outages if this thing strengthens offshore and comes in as a hurricane.
 

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12Z Euro ens: only ~25% curve back NW CHS south (similar to 0Z) vs ~75% doing that on the 12Z GEFS.
Compared to recent Euro ens going NW CHS S: ~33% did on 0Z and ~75% did on yesterday’s 12Z
 
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