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Hurricane Debby

lexxnchloe said:
Im not sure i have ever seen such a massive change in 12 hours so close to the event

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Pretty clear why the EURO hooked it back NW. High pressure centered over interior New England instead of Quebec blocks off the escape to the northeast. However I don’t really see anything on that map that would steer it that far inland. If something like this were to happen, unfortunately I think the result would be the center sitting and spinning out over SC. I wonder if the EPS will give any support for what the EURO just showed
 
Chazwin said:
Pretty clear why the EURO hooked it back NW. High pressure centered over interior New England instead of Quebec blocks off the escape to the northeast. However I don’t really see anything on that map that would steer it that far inland. If something like this were to happen, unfortunately I think the result would be the center sitting and spinning out over SC. I wonder if the EPS will give any support for what the EURO just showed
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They do for the most part, the timing of the left hook and how far west it goes spreads lows from like Norfolk to Mobile up to Huntsville at one point. Its such a big jump in one suite that it seems questionable but the real changes in the Euro suite are happening across the northern tier of the US which expands the central US ridge out. Most other modeling gets some degree of troughing back into the east.
 
SD said:
They do for the most part, the timing of the left hook and how far west it goes spreads lows from like Norfolk to Mobile up to Huntsville at one point. Its such a big jump in one suite that it seems questionable but the real changes in the Euro suite are happening across the northern tier of the US which expands the central US ridge out. Most other modeling gets some degree of troughing back into the east.
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Yeah it definitely a big change which is why I would want to see some support for it on the EPS to buy into it.
 
If the southern center is the one that wins and I think based on sat loops that seems likely and it can for some kind of core before crossing western Cuba that certainly changes things for the Tampa up to Big Bend area....
 
ICON and GFS both considerably slower than 12Z. Icon a bit west as well. GFS a little more east, then cuts north over easter NC at 972mb. Big thing is ALOT slower

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no change from me from a couple of days ago. I may tick east in later updates if the storm gets stronger than forecast and speeds up crossing Florida. This will cut down on impacts north of Myrtle Beach. But for now, sig. flood likely in areas belowIMG_3223.jpeg
 
Henry2326 said:
It doesn't have enough time to consolidate.....at least that's what they think. We will see what it really can do.
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I wonder though how much of that has to with the center forecast to stay over land in Cuba and going over tall mountains. If the center is developing south of Cuba like it appears on satellite, then it may very well not be over land except for a short time on the western side of the island with much lower elevation
 
Chazwin said:
I wonder though how much of that has to with the center forecast to stay over land in Cuba and going over tall mountains. If the center is developing south of Cuba like it appears on satellite, then it may very well not be over land except for a short time on the western side of the island with much lower elevation
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If consolidates south of Cuba the chances of it getting much farther west increase. Probably still will sling back east toward FL, but the more time passes it may either miss the weakness or have the ridge build back and push it back west.
 
Chazwin said:
I wonder though how much of that has to with the center forecast to stay over land in Cuba and going over tall mountains. If the center is developing south of Cuba like it appears on satellite, then it may very well not be over land except for a short time on the western side of the island with much lower elevation
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Its still a large broad area of circulation and even with the center possibly forming south of Cuba the overall effect of Cuba to its organization will be the same for the most part. This is what I am seeing looking at the loops....if this is the eventual center and track it wont organize to much till it gets north of Cuba...

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^ JB you can’t just say boiling water means RI or CAT5 you have to add more to post cause they didn’t like it when I said it awhile back
 
IF it can get enough time in the GOM the build a actual decent size wind field with an established strong core it will have much bigger impacts in Florida obviously but also up the chances of it being able to recover enough in the ATL to give NC a actual problem other than rain.


The red track on this would be pretty bad a lot of time over water on that run....would be a red meat cane into MHX/Emerald Isle...

 
I kinda trust the euro when it comes to hard north west hooks on the east coast from storms in the Caribbean. (Sandy) So I’m not fully on board for a hurricane into eastern NC at all.
 
In fact, the
SHIPS guidance and all of the regional hurricane models show the
cyclone reaching hurricane strength before reaching land in the Big
Bend region of Florida in 2 to 3 days
 
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