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Hurricane Debby

00Z Euro does have a second NC landfall around Jacksonville....albeit weak around 1001...ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_seus_51.png
 
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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the
southeastern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and the adjacent waters of the
southwestern Atlantic. The wave is expected to move near or over
Cuba throughout the day and then emerge over the Straits of Florida
tonight or Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of
Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of
Florida later today.

Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash
flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend,
and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
 
By tomorrow afternoon this should start feeling a little bit of help from the right entrance of the jet across the eastern US. I would assume that will be when it starts to get a little more persistent convection and begins to lose the negative impacts of its interaction with Cuba. This would give some lean to the right biased models of the last 24 hours as the system would have a tendency to bend toward the convection north and northeast of any developing system. The convective structure this morning is interesting with the 2 areas well removed from each other. If that southern blob near Jamaica were to take over it may have some impacts to bias the track left in time. Again still somewhat messy on the eventual track and strength
 
SD said:
By tomorrow afternoon this should start feeling a little bit of help from the right entrance of the jet across the eastern US. I would assume that will be when it starts to get a little more persistent convection and begins to lose the negative impacts of its interaction with Cuba. This would give some lean to the right biased models of the last 24 hours as the system would have a tendency to bend toward the convection north and northeast of any developing system. The convective structure this morning is interesting with the 2 areas well removed from each other. If that southern blob near Jamaica were to take over it may have some impacts to bias the track left in time. Again still somewhat messy on the eventual track and strength
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Right now i think if anything a more right path seems likely. Still a good chance whatever it is after FLA will come in just west of Hatteras.
 
SD said:
By tomorrow afternoon this should start feeling a little bit of help from the right entrance of the jet across the eastern US. I would assume that will be when it starts to get a little more persistent convection and begins to lose the negative impacts of its interaction with Cuba. This would give some lean to the right biased models of the last 24 hours as the system would have a tendency to bend toward the convection north and northeast of any developing system. The convective structure this morning is interesting with the 2 areas well removed from each other. If that southern blob near Jamaica were to take over it may have some impacts to bias the track left in time. Again still somewhat messy on the eventual track and strength
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2 areas well removed from each other......

2a60b58e-3f08-488c-964a-73fb6b3d3731.jpeg
 
AL, 04, 2024080212, , BEST, 0, 206N, 756W, 25, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011, TRANSITIONED, alA72024 to al042024,

Here we go
 
Chazwin said:
The Canadian has actually been fairly consistent with that further west track. It would actually make sense given how stout the Bermuda high is, but I’m not sure how well it’s done in the past with tracks of tropical systems
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My understanding is that it record with tropical systems is poor. That said, watch it be correct this time.
 
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