lexxnchloe
Member
Surprising it cant do anything with such warm water west of FLA but if it keeps moving and never hits water then its just another rainy day in a long list of rainy days we are having.
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Hurricane Debby
- Thread starter Brent
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
12z HWRF..... a tad bit east than 06z.
NoSnowATL
Member
Henry2326
Member
2pm NHC......showing the possible offshore and then back into SC.
Gotta blame Cuba on this one. They did not allow the US government to survey the storm over land. This led to poor model guidance and center fixes. They have a history of denying us air space.
System is still pretty messy and looking at the visible satellite it's quite possible it's elongated SSE to NNW. Given the lack of clouds moving from west to east across the eastern tip of Cuba that vigorous looking area towards key west seems like it's a meso within the larger gyre. That said it could take over but it's not exactly colocated with a ton of vigorous deep convection so I'm not sure
I’m debating on setting up a live stream at Daffin park at my second home. That area is gonna overspill into historic Savannah.
Henry2326
Member
It never makes it to the coast.....stalls over GA.
snowc
Member
hello folks can someone post what to prep for a hurricane and for inland flooding?
snowc
Member
Henry2326
Member
18z
Brent
Member
HWFI ftw
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
12z Euro......986
Shaggy
Member
Brent
Member
Debby and hurricane warnings coming at 5 apparently
It's def taking over at this point and the whole presentation on visible is looking better
Stormsfury
Member
Tropical Storm Debby is now official for NHC on FB with an expected live at 5pm.
Downeastnc
Member
Henry2326
Member
BHS1975
Member
Hot towers going up.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
18z icon is wild
Henry2326
Member
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024
The tropical cyclone has become better organized since the last
advisory, with the circulation center becoming better defined over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and areas of outer convective
banding to the north and south of the central region. A
combination of earlier scatterometer data, surface observations in
the Florida Keys, and ship reports in the Straits of Florida shows
an area of 30-35 kt winds located about 120 n mi from the center in
the eastern semicircle. Based on this information, Tropical
Depression Four is upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby.
The initial motion is now northwest or 310/13 kt. A large mid- to
upper-level trough over the central United States is creating a
break in the subtropical ridge, and Debby is expected to turn
northward into this break in about 24 h. This should be followed
by a gradual turn toward the northeast at a slower forward speed
through 60 h. This motion should bring the center near or over the
northern Gulf coast in roughly 48 h. After landfall, weakening
steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it
moves northeastward or eastward over parts of northern Florida and
Georgia. The uncertainty in the forecast increases significantly
after 60 h as the cyclone interacts with a portion of the U.S.
trough. The latest GFS and ECMWF models show a slow eastward
motion into the Atlantic, followed by a turn toward the north or
northwest that brings the center back inland. On the other hand,
the Canadian model is still forecasting Debby to move slowly
northeastward across the southeastern states and does not bring it
over the Atlantic. This portion of the new forecast track
continues to show a slow motion and leans toward the GFS/ECMWF
solutions.
Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico
with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear.
Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h, then
proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized
inner core. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity
of 65 kt at landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida in best agreement
with the HWRF model. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the
system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the
intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to the possibility
of land interaction and how much interaction will occur with the
aforementioned mid-latitude trough.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the
Southeast this weekend through Thursday. Significant river flooding
is also expected.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys.
3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian
Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to
Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required tonight or on Sunday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 23.9N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 25.3N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0600Z 31.0N 83.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1800Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1800Z 31.5N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1800Z 33.0N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024
The tropical cyclone has become better organized since the last
advisory, with the circulation center becoming better defined over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and areas of outer convective
banding to the north and south of the central region. A
combination of earlier scatterometer data, surface observations in
the Florida Keys, and ship reports in the Straits of Florida shows
an area of 30-35 kt winds located about 120 n mi from the center in
the eastern semicircle. Based on this information, Tropical
Depression Four is upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby.
The initial motion is now northwest or 310/13 kt. A large mid- to
upper-level trough over the central United States is creating a
break in the subtropical ridge, and Debby is expected to turn
northward into this break in about 24 h. This should be followed
by a gradual turn toward the northeast at a slower forward speed
through 60 h. This motion should bring the center near or over the
northern Gulf coast in roughly 48 h. After landfall, weakening
steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it
moves northeastward or eastward over parts of northern Florida and
Georgia. The uncertainty in the forecast increases significantly
after 60 h as the cyclone interacts with a portion of the U.S.
trough. The latest GFS and ECMWF models show a slow eastward
motion into the Atlantic, followed by a turn toward the north or
northwest that brings the center back inland. On the other hand,
the Canadian model is still forecasting Debby to move slowly
northeastward across the southeastern states and does not bring it
over the Atlantic. This portion of the new forecast track
continues to show a slow motion and leans toward the GFS/ECMWF
solutions.
Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico
with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear.
Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h, then
proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized
inner core. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity
of 65 kt at landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida in best agreement
with the HWRF model. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the
system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the
intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to the possibility
of land interaction and how much interaction will occur with the
aforementioned mid-latitude trough.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the
Southeast this weekend through Thursday. Significant river flooding
is also expected.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys.
3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian
Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to
Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required tonight or on Sunday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 23.9N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 25.3N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0600Z 31.0N 83.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1800Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1800Z 31.5N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1800Z 33.0N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
BHS1975
Member
964 into topsail moving NNW
BHS1975
Member
Shaggy
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
Looks fun if you don't own a car, house have a job or kids.
Henry2326
Member
Just when you think we might get out of this without trees and buildings falling down......
Henry2326
Member
12z GFS...I was in Charleston in the 100 year flood in 2015. Looks like this could be comparable.
Historic Flooding - October 1-5, 2015
www.weather.gov
Downeastnc
Member
I looked over past tracks of TCs back to 1851. Of those that moved from the GOM inland over W FL N of Tampa through the panhandle, I couldn’t find even one that then moved offshore SE US followed by a curl back NW back into the SE coast like the last few Euro/GFS runs. The closest I could find is Easy of 1950, which could have done it had it first gone offshore FL before curling back:
So, whereas climo doesn’t tell me a curl back NW into the SE coast a la GFS/Euro can’t happen, it does tell me to not be surprised if that ends up not happening and to almost expect it to not.
So, whereas climo doesn’t tell me a curl back NW into the SE coast a la GFS/Euro can’t happen, it does tell me to not be surprised if that ends up not happening and to almost expect it to not.
Henry2326
Member
Gives some support to the Icon 18z.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Quite a difference between NW GA and SE GA. No rain in Rome and 2 feet in Savannah ?
NCSNOW
Member
Got a kido parked right at Shaggy local. Flooding is the worry. Its early August and if this one doesnt put a nail in the coffin, it definitely digs a deeper Grave for the next one that could always come along.
Reed Timmer just posted an interesting take. I agree. Anyway, from me, I’m thinking low end CAT 3 but potential for 4/5