Pretty clear why the EURO hooked it back NW. High pressure centered over interior New England instead of Quebec blocks off the escape to the northeast. However I don’t really see anything on that map that would steer it that far inland. If something like this were to happen, unfortunately I think the result would be the center sitting and spinning out over SC. I wonder if the EPS will give any support for what the EURO just showed
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Hurricane Debby
- Thread starter Brent
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
It's always within 3 days, which is no time for a majority to evacuate.
They do for the most part, the timing of the left hook and how far west it goes spreads lows from like Norfolk to Mobile up to Huntsville at one point. Its such a big jump in one suite that it seems questionable but the real changes in the Euro suite are happening across the northern tier of the US which expands the central US ridge out. Most other modeling gets some degree of troughing back into the east.
Henry2326
Member
18z. Gosh....too much onshore. Watch TVCX...
Watch this euro trend. More troughing north of MT/ND, less eastern troughing, more excited westward bermuda ridge, axis of the central US heat ridge pushes east to link to the bermuda ridge. 
Might as well be winter watching a loop like this
I wonder if that area of convection to the south is starting to take over. If it does then the tracks further west might be closer to the outcome
Shaggy
Member
Yea if the official forecast track is right this will have little wind impacts on the Atlantic side of the track IMO
weather bubba
Member
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/022036.shtml
The NHC notes the differences between the GFS and Euro models as far as timing. The NHC is not very bullish with their intensity forecast.
The NHC notes the differences between the GFS and Euro models as far as timing. The NHC is not very bullish with their intensity forecast.
Downeastnc
Member
If the southern center is the one that wins and I think based on sat loops that seems likely and it can for some kind of core before crossing western Cuba that certainly changes things for the Tampa up to Big Bend area....
severestorm
Member
Webber gives a great summary
and it looks like that area of convection to the north is weakening… if the center develops south of Cuba, not only will it be over water longer, it also won’t be traveling over the tallest mountains
lexxnchloe
Member
ICON and GFS both considerably slower than 12Z. Icon a bit west as well. GFS a little more east, then cuts north over easter NC at 972mb. Big thing is ALOT slower
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS is pretty much what i am thinking. just west of Hatteras at 100 mph
I could also see that area just off shore south of cuba rotating and looks like the “main” area. IMO
Henry2326
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
Its odd to me that no model develops it much before FLA.