Hurricane Debby

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Reed Timmer just posted an interesting take. I agree. Anyway, from me, I’m thinking low end CAT 3 but potential for 4/5

You really think there's enough time for a Cat 5 between now and Monday morning ?

 

[weatherboyy]

You really think there's enough time for a Cat 5 between now and Monday morning ?

No cat 5 or 3 not enough time.

 

[tractor girl]

wtf is the GFS even doing

 

[Carolina Jones]

wtf is the GFS even doing

View attachment 149307

 

[BirdManDoomW]

You really think there's enough time for a Cat 5 between now and Monday morning ?

Reed Timmer: Tropical Storm Debby seems to be organizing well ahead of schedule and is about to move over very warm 31-32 deg C water over the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward northwest Florida. This is such a familiar scenario

 

[SD]

 

[BHS1975]

View attachment 149308

That light blue would be the worst case for us.


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[SD]

The convection riding north off of the west coast of Fl makes me think it starting to really feel the effects of the jet to north. Have to think a more N turn is going to happen pretty soon.

View attachment 080324.mp4

 

[BirdManDoomW]

You really think there's enough time for a Cat 5 between now and Monday morning ?

I wouldn’t forecast it no but I expect hurricane status by tomorrow. And some bursts of Rapid Intensification. These hot towers mean business.

 

[Downeastnc]

You really think there's enough time for a Cat 5 between now and Monday morning ?

If we have learned anything the last few seasons it's that lately when uninhibited these systems tend to rapidly organize...not a lot to prevent it from going boom....cat 5 is obviously unlikely but high end cat 3 should not surprise anyone.

 

[GaWx]

wtf is the GFS even doing

View attachment 149307

Something that on record hasn’t happened in a pretty similar fashion from a storm crossing from NW FL since at least 1851. This would be so highly anomalous. But the last few GFS/Euro runs along with many ensemble members are still insisting on a NW turn back into the coast. Don’t bet on it but who’s to say that a first couldn’t occur. And Easy of 1950 had some resemblance.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

View attachment 149308

Do you really think Debby could go to Texas like a couple models are showing ?

 

[Brent]

I dunno if it can really bomb out but I could see it being similar to Beryl in Texas where it's blowing up as it comes in but runs out of time

Well see

 

[SD]

Do you really think Debby could go to Texas like a couple models are showing ?

No in that image they are just "models" that extrapolate the current motion

 

[SD]

That light blue would be the worst case for us.


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Yep there was a big number of eps members that had the low center within probably 50 miles of us but the lowest pressure I saw was around 992

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

Who thinks it's higher than 40 mph now.

 

[iGRXY]

I would say an inland track between Columbia and the coast (I95 middle ground) seems most likely right now. Even back my way we are expecting rainfall in the 3-5” range as of today

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

8:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 3
Location: 24.1°N 83.3°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

 

[Henry2326]

Geez...look at that train.

 

[Henry2326]

Who thinks it's higher than 40 mph now.

Definitely consolidating.....

 

[Chazwin]

wtf is the GFS even doing

View attachment 149307

Honestly it’s very similar to what the 12z EURO did yesterday. Not saying it’s right, but when steering currents break down, weird things can happen… remember Florence in 2018

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Brent]

Recon first pass is still a mess

 

[Belle Lechat]

Recon first pass is still a mess

This map only goes to 7:50 Eastern at time of posting.

 

[Belle Lechat]

003100 2408N 08204W 6963 03194 0079 +099 +084 163032 033 037 000 00
8:31 PM Eastern
Peak 10-second average surface wind speed

37 kts=42.6 mph

 

[Belle Lechat]

Dvorak

 

[Belle Lechat]

NOAA is doing an eye pass right now.

 

[Shaggy]

NOAA is doing an eye pass right now.

There is no eye to pass through. They will do a center fix and that center is still organizing

 

[Belle Lechat]

There is no eye to pass through. They will do a center fix and that center is still organizing

Right, thank you.

/NOAA plane still hasn't updated.

 

[Belle Lechat]

NOAA lowest extrapolated surface pressure this pass 1004.0 mb.
005130 2409N 08341W 6956 03194 0040 +126 +048 011012 012 022 000 00

 

[Brent]

Still got a lot of work to do

 

[Shaggy]

Still got a lot of work to do

Needs a big burst over the center and to shed some of those bands

 

[Brent]

Pressure down several mb that pass

 

[Belle Lechat]

015130 2405N 08321W 9250 00693 0008 +226 +221 267006 007 008 002 00
9:51 PM Eastern
1000.8 mb

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

3k NAM

 

[Belle Lechat]

11:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 3
Location: 24.4°N 83.6°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

 

[Brent]

Pressure drop was a fluke although they did raise the landfall forecast to 85 mph which is about what Beryl had in Texas