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Hurricane Debby

severestorm said:
Really? "Water boiling" "CAT 5" based on nothing.
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Can’t be too far fetched if models were showing 970mb before it was declared an invest. May have a better idea tomorrow when hurricane models run. If it avoids Florida longer then I do see something stronger than CAT3. There is a window. 🪟 And yes the water is boiling. 🥵
 
Really the two big determining factors after it develops will be speed and strength. The 18z GFS stall off NC isn’t supported at all by the GEFS, but the other factors are. The GEFS is really showing all solutions. If it is stronger and faster, it’s gonna come across FL then likely OTS, if it is slower it would allow the ridge to build in and push it west or if it is weak it will be less likely to feel the weakness and move farther west.

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BirdManDoomW said:
Can’t be too far fetched if models were showing 970mb before it was declared an invest. May have a better idea tomorrow when hurricane models run. If it avoids Florida longer then I do see something stronger than CAT3. There is a window. 🪟 And yes the water is boiling. 🥵
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970mb is NOT a CAT 5 and the water is not 212 degrees F. How about you post something factual for once. Please don't trash this thread.
 
severestorm said:
970mb is NOT a CAT 5 and the water is not 212 degrees F. How about you post something factual for once. Please don't trash this thread.
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I dont think they are saying 970 is a cat 5, just that might be possible since some models were already showing a sub 970 pressure. Nothing this close to the coast will get that strong though
 
00ZGFS weak system into west Florida then keeps it offshore and OTS after it emerges into the ATL.

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ICON is rough keeps it just offshore all the way from GA to NC where it landfalls as a weak cane....but hammers parts of the Carolinas with rainfall


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00Z Euro does have a second NC landfall around Jacksonville....albeit weak around 1001...ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_seus_51.png
 
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two_atl_7d0 (10).png

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the
southeastern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and the adjacent waters of the
southwestern Atlantic. The wave is expected to move near or over
Cuba throughout the day and then emerge over the Straits of Florida
tonight or Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of
Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of
Florida later today.

Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash
flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend,
and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
 
FallsLake said:
6z Canadian at hour 84:
View attachment 149149
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The Canadian has actually been fairly consistent with that further west track. It would actually make sense given how stout the Bermuda high is, but I’m not sure how well it’s done in the past with tracks of tropical systems
 
By tomorrow afternoon this should start feeling a little bit of help from the right entrance of the jet across the eastern US. I would assume that will be when it starts to get a little more persistent convection and begins to lose the negative impacts of its interaction with Cuba. This would give some lean to the right biased models of the last 24 hours as the system would have a tendency to bend toward the convection north and northeast of any developing system. The convective structure this morning is interesting with the 2 areas well removed from each other. If that southern blob near Jamaica were to take over it may have some impacts to bias the track left in time. Again still somewhat messy on the eventual track and strength
 
SD said:
By tomorrow afternoon this should start feeling a little bit of help from the right entrance of the jet across the eastern US. I would assume that will be when it starts to get a little more persistent convection and begins to lose the negative impacts of its interaction with Cuba. This would give some lean to the right biased models of the last 24 hours as the system would have a tendency to bend toward the convection north and northeast of any developing system. The convective structure this morning is interesting with the 2 areas well removed from each other. If that southern blob near Jamaica were to take over it may have some impacts to bias the track left in time. Again still somewhat messy on the eventual track and strength
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Right now i think if anything a more right path seems likely. Still a good chance whatever it is after FLA will come in just west of Hatteras.
 
SD said:
By tomorrow afternoon this should start feeling a little bit of help from the right entrance of the jet across the eastern US. I would assume that will be when it starts to get a little more persistent convection and begins to lose the negative impacts of its interaction with Cuba. This would give some lean to the right biased models of the last 24 hours as the system would have a tendency to bend toward the convection north and northeast of any developing system. The convective structure this morning is interesting with the 2 areas well removed from each other. If that southern blob near Jamaica were to take over it may have some impacts to bias the track left in time. Again still somewhat messy on the eventual track and strength
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2 areas well removed from each other......

2a60b58e-3f08-488c-964a-73fb6b3d3731.jpeg
 
AL, 04, 2024080212, , BEST, 0, 206N, 756W, 25, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011, TRANSITIONED, alA72024 to al042024,

Here we go
 
Chazwin said:
The Canadian has actually been fairly consistent with that further west track. It would actually make sense given how stout the Bermuda high is, but I’m not sure how well it’s done in the past with tracks of tropical systems
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My understanding is that it record with tropical systems is poor. That said, watch it be correct this time.
 
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