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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

Haha Boston to Mexico
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Let's not forget the euro and its ensembles are not interested . Yes the Gfs sniffed out 94l first BUT the euro and its ensembles were correct in not developing it. So Im still very hesitant with the Gfs and gefs


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Storm5 said:
Let's not forget the euro and its ensembles are not interested . Yes the Gfs sniffed out 94l first BUT the euro and its ensembles were correct in not developing it. So Im still very hesitant with the Gfs and gefs


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For me, this is the tiebreaker. If the storm develops and becomes at least a tropical storm, the Euro loses, and the GFS and CMC get the development win. If not, then the Euro wins.
 
ForsythSnow said:
For me, this is the tiebreaker. If the storm develops and becomes at least a tropical storm, the Euro loses, and the GFS and CMC get the development win. If not, then the Euro wins.
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Its a win, win situation Lol.
 
ForsythSnow said:
For me, this is the tiebreaker. If the storm develops and becomes at least a tropical storm, the Euro loses, and the GFS and CMC get the development win. If not, then the Euro wins.
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But my point is when the gfs and gefs were falsely developing 94l the euro and eps were being completely ignored when they showed no development ( which turns out to be correct ) . Sure the Gfs sniffed the wave out first but the Gfs seems to be having issues so far this year with over development. Id rather guidance be correct or at least in the damn ballpark with development vs just being first to latch onto a wave and end up being horrible wrong with development .


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Storm5 said:
But my point is when the gfs and gefs were falsely developing 94l the euro and eps were being completely ignored when they showed no development ( which turns out to be correct ) . Sure the Gfs sniffed the wave out first but the Gfs seems to be having issues so far this year with over development. Id rather guidance be correct or at least in the damn ballpark with development vs just being first to latch onto a wave and end up being horrible wrong with development .


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True. Meanwhile, the GFS and CMC are much further south and weaker this run, now scraping South America. Quite a drastic change.
 
ForsythSnow said:
True. Meanwhile, the GFS and CMC are much further south and weaker this run, now scraping South America. Quite a drastic change.
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If and until something actually forms, models are going to be guessing all over the place, IMHO ....

By way of a micro-example (though not the best analogy, mind you), we're supposed to have a 30% chance of "spotty showers" today, and it is a dark as dusk and sounds like D-Day ...
 
Every gfs run, has been different. One thing for sure is that its high on heels for the windward islands into Caribbeans
 
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