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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

accu35 said:
This run shows that the US cant be ruled out with a threat. Many more runs to go
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Emily popped out of nowhere, so anything is possible, but a good rule of thumb (at least for me who has a lot to gain or lose down here) is that when 2 or 3 solid models show something within 240 for 3 or more runs, it's time to sit up and take notice ...
Off the soap box and getting ready to Skype my son in Japan @ 8:00 PM ... :D
 
Brent said:
East of Long Island at 324 hours, US saving cancel
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Yeah, you're not gonna see recurvature with a big ridge sitting over Atlantic Canada (i.e. an infamous "Newfoundland Wheel"), if anything that's a classic synoptic signature associated with east coast hurricane landfalls... Retrogression of an anticyclone that'll be over Great Britain/Ireland later next week may be in the vicinity by then, and this sort of pattern is supported by both weather & climate models as well as the general shift in tropical forcing from the western hemisphere to the Indian Ocean.
gfs_z500a_atl_41.png

cansips_z500a_atl_1.png

eps_z500a_5d_noram_61.png
 
Showers and thunderstorms near the coast of west Africa are
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some development during the next
several days as the system moves to the west or west-northwest at 10
to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
 
Not bad . Gonna be funny if these storms get picked up and saved by all the troughs. Its trough after trough on the gfs
270d739e3cce9c614c932a84d3f29535.jpg


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The Guinea Highlands of southwestern Equatorial Africa played a fairly large role imo in intensifying this easterly wave and allowing for guidance to sniff it out, as relative vorticity created by terrain induced convection sharpened the wave axis. Other mountain chains such as the Ethiopian highlands, Dafur mountains, and Cameroon highlands also aid African Easterly Waves in a similar fashion... I think it's certainly feasible the next wave or two behind this also has a chance of development down the road in the eastern MDR as this CCKW passes, and of course by then climatology will be ramping up appreciably... As is the case with this wave over the west coast of Africa, it will likely come down to a matter of subsequent waves becoming intense/detectable enough for models to aptly identify, develop, and intensify them. Interaction with these aforementioned terrain features and the concomitant CCKW will be vital to the prospects of TCG in the eastern MDR over the coming few weeks jD4tC0Ah0YNVD.jpg
Screen Shot 2017-08-02 at 8.21.24 PM.png
 
Storm5 said:
Not bad . Gonna be funny if these storms get picked up and saved by all the troughs. Its trough after trough on the gfs
270d739e3cce9c614c932a84d3f29535.jpg


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I wouldn't bet on getting saved by a trough with the projected pattern the WAR potentially nosing im toward the SE coast is troublesome
A storm could cut north with the pattern below but its still going to have a lot of west in its motion
4b81c69e62c88f551436d56863643baa.jpg

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SD said:
I wouldn't bet on getting saved by a trough with the projected pattern the WAR potentially nosing im toward the SE coast is troublesome
A storm could cut north with the pattern below but its still going to have a lot of west in its motion
4b81c69e62c88f551436d56863643baa.jpg

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Yep. SE coast better be alert if a storm does develop with that pattern setup. I don't like that look one bit.


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