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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

Euro tries to develop the remnants of ex 97L currently over the Lesser Antilles in the Bay of Campeche next week, while it also appears to be latching onto the next AEW behind the lemon in the eastern Atlantic
 
Webberweather53 said:
Uh oh...
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CMC has a system too, but much later. And yikes. This run makes a TC in 2 days...
ecmwf_uv850_vort_atltropics_6.png
 
the one approaching the Antilles at 168 looks to be headed for a threatening US position
 
Appears to be quite a bit of ensemble support for both

Oh and the EPAC finally dies which to me means the switch should turn on
 
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Im sure because the euro shows something people will start to hype despite the fact the gfs has nothing

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Storm5 said:
Im sure because the euro shows something people will start to hype despite the fact the gfs has nothing

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Issue is the GFS updated. It is even worse than the Euro on suppression it seems. The CMC has something as well, as does the NAVGEM, but neither have both systems. Something to watch though.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Issue is the GFS updated. It is even worse than the Euro on suppression it seems. The CMC has something as well, as does the NAVGEM, but neither have both systems. Something to watch though.
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The GFS is on an island right now...
UKMET also on board with development w/ eastern MDR disturbance
 
I'm on board with development of either system in the Bay of Campeche/Yucatan and eastern MDR for several reasons
A) We've already seen tropical cyclones in both portions of the basin this year where NWP is trying to sniff out TC activity, in the case of the eastern Atlantic, an usually large number for this point in the season, thus we know the Atlantic is entirely capable of producing a storm in both areas.
B) Both systems already have a well defined tropical wave axis and are relatively easy for NWP to identify and dampen/amplify
C) Tropical Cyclogenesis at least in the case of the storm east of the Antilles is forecast to occur in 48-72 HR (or less) and short and medium term trends in NWP (even the GFS which is becoming more impressed with the eastern MDR system) are becoming more supportive of development.
D) As i mentioned last week, passage of a CCKW over the Atlantic would be liable to help instigate TCG and potentially lead to a relative outbreak of TC activity the 2nd week of August and provide a major boost to the AEW train by increasing low-mid level moisture flux, decreasing upper level westerly wind shear (through concomitant upper level wind fields & destruction of TUTTs by increased latent heating), increasing low level relative vorticity, and also the number of convective triggers and disturbances for TCG...
 
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