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Observations Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

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#2
Well this for a start. GFS has been honking at some sort of an storm in gulf past few runs.
 

GaWx

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#6
This, of course, might be real. However, the GFS may very well be showing a fake Caribbean/Gulf storm over and over, especially considering how far out it still is in forecast time. The GFS is notorious for showing fake W Caribbean geneses even after having many runs in a row with a forecasted storm without time slippage. I've seen it and documented it before. Don't let the GFS' persistence fool you into thinking this must be real. I'm going with "it may be real but it could easily be another one of its fakes". Climo, especially in oncoming El Niño years (we may or may not be in an oncoming El Niño year), favors this area for genesis in mid June. This is about the only time of the season that has increased genesis potential in association with an oncoming El Niño.
 
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#8
Wont post image on 12z gfs but the Low is there. The signs are there ATM with a storm signal some sort. Usually homegrown storms likes to birth right here locally around June/July. As Larry pointed out this could be real or fake. Im just ready for some action.
 

metwannabe

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#9
Hmmm.... D10 I know but maybe onto something or on something. GFS and Euro images below, does look like lowering pressures in the western Caribbean around that time



 

ForsythSnow

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#10
Hmmm.... D10 I know but maybe onto something or on something. GFS and Euro images below, does look like lowering pressures in the western Caribbean around that time



I noticed the Euro is showimg lower pressures. If we see a strong low on the Euro in the next few days we could be looking at something, or not.
 
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#11
I noticed the Euro is showimg lower pressures. If we see a strong low on the Euro in the next few days we could be looking at something, or not.
Just about all the models show something of an storm some sort.
interesting times ahead.
 

ForsythSnow

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#18
0z GFS still showing something and the Euro still shows lowering pressures but dang it's still 10 days out
Yep, all models suggesting something as of now, though the GFS's path has changed more towards Mexico for now. If the update for the worse hadn't happened I would be saying one is likely to form, but because it did we can only guess whether or not it will.
 
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#27
I been watching these runs for about a week now, I do believe something will form in gulf but not sure about strength wize
 
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#28
Accuweather and few other sites are interested in next weeks potential storm. Something to watch closely around the 19/20th time frame.
 

GaWx

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#29
The last two runs of the EPS fwiw favor a low to form somewhere around the Yucatan 6/18-20 and to then move WNW into MX ~6/22 well south of S TX. OTOH, recent GEFS means have been significantly further north with more members than the EPS suggesting a potential threat to the CONUS. The "Crazy Uncle" (CMC) ens mean implies even more uncertainty with even more spread sort of implying that the NE GOM US coast threat is higher vs what the GEFS suggests and way higher than what the EPS suggests.
 

pcbjr

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#30
The last two runs of the EPS fwiw favor a low to form somewhere around the Yucatan 6/18-20 and to then move WNW into MX ~6/22 well south of S TX. OTOH, recent GEFS means have been significantly further north with more members than the EPS suggesting a potential threat to the CONUS. The "Crazy Uncle" (CMC) ens mean implies even more uncertainty with even more spread sort of implying that the NE GOM US coast threat is higher vs what the GEFS suggests and way higher than what the EPS suggests.
Welcome to optical tropical weather ... though, Larry, you need no "welcome"!
PS - You could swim the bamboo today ... LOL
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
534 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2017
Alachua FL-
534 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2017
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a
* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas
for...
Central Alachua County in northern Florida...
* Until 700 PM EDT
* At 534 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding.
Overflowing poor drainage areas will result in minor flooding in
the advisory area. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen in
some locations...with an additional 1 to 2 inches possible.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Gainesville and University Of Florida.
Best!
Phil
 
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