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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

Double trouble?? Man watching these images is like watching a flame it's mesmerizing... wish I new how to post the animated loops

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GFS impressed with wave yet to exit Africa..... our luck is going to run out with one of these
 
Gfs developing what would be 93l this run . Has door open to the right and should go OTS


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The model GFS/Euro consensus for what is still in western Africa and may become Invest 93L down the road is for a recurve well east of the CONUS fwiw. I know, I know wait for it to become a TC first (assuming it does) or at least wait til it gets over water. This is mainly for documentation purposes.
 
Interestingly, although the overwhelming consensus of the 12Z models including ensemble members was for an easy recurve well east of the CONUS of the wave currently over W Africa (maybe future 93L), the 18Z GFS due to solid ridging further west in the W Atlantic has this go all of the way to near Puerto Rico at hour 180.

Edit: However, this still recurves well est of the CONUS near 72W.
 
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12z cmc has one moving into the gulf and one moving NW towards the US thanks to a building ridge
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GFS VS CMC :
GFS - flattens everything and says what development?
gfs_mslp_wind_atl_21.png

CMC - Develops everything. Takes 91 into Yucatan, 92 through the islands and into the Gulf, and to be 93 OTS like Gert. Hervey, Irma, and Jose there.
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By day ten the Cmc has 93L heading almost due west underneath the ridge headed for the east coast
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ForsythSnow said:
GFS VS CMC :
GFS - flattens everything and says what development?
gfs_mslp_wind_atl_21.png

CMC - Develops everything. Takes 91 into Yucatan, 92 through the islands and into the Gulf, and to be 93 OTS like Gert. Hervey, Irma, and Jose there.
gem_mslp_wind_atl_21.png
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Yeah the UKMET is also developing everything & has been for the past few days.... The UKMET develops 92L into a bonafide, strengthening tropical cyclone over the Bahamas by this time next week...

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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the UKMET is also developing everything & has been for the past few days.... The UKMET develops 92L into a bonafide, strengthening tropical cyclone over the Bahamas by this time next week...

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Honestly, assuming they don't all get shredded apart, and can manage to become storms, I think the CMC and UKMET could be resonable solutions. The GFS as well as the Euro keeps ripping these apart and seemed to with Gert. If they don't form at all, the GFS and Euro would be right.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the UKMET is also developing everything & has been for the past few days.... The UKMET develops 92L into a bonafide, strengthening tropical cyclone over the Bahamas by this time next week...

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This is a little worrisome as it appears 92L maybe headed to the SE at the end of that run, UKMET not horrible that's for sure.... let's see what the good Doc has to say
 
Storm5 said:
Blind squirrels find nuts every now and then


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I think the squirrel this year isn't blind at all, and has been cured, but is still nearsighted at times. :p We shall see next year if this is true, but I think the CMC's days of being crazy and developing 5 hurricanes at once are over.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
This might be a dumb question, but is there any situation where those two storms interact with each other? Or one "absorbs" the other
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Not on any of the modeling I've seen, they keep enough separation and they are even farther apart once any model actual starts to develop them to see any type of Fujiwara effect or anything..
On this note I notice GFS and CMC actually show 91L midlevel rotation making it into the Pacific and either being absorbed by a developing system or redeveloping itself... but nothing like that on the Atlantic side
 
ForsythSnow said:
I think the squirrel this year isn't blind at all, and has been cured, but is still nearsighted at times. :p We shall see next year if this is true, but I think the CMC's days of being crazy and developing 5 hurricanes at once are over.
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Yeah after the recent upgrade, the GFS has taken the crown for blind squirrel from the CMC w/ vengeance...
 
metwannabe said:
Well I see the hype train has in fact left the station engineered by none other than JB himself....
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He is turning into a joke . Webber has been crushing him on twitter for the last year at his over the top BS . He is so desperate for something to hit the east coast . I hope the gfs verifies and nothing develops


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Storm5 said:
He is turning into a joke . Webber has been crushing him on twitter for the last year at his over the top BS . He is so desperate for something to hit the east coast . I hope the gfs verifies and nothing develops


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Joke is right. He doesn't even put any stock into the CMC at all. Is he keeping track of the successes and failures of all models this year? I don't think he is. Give the CMC the win for Gert, and it is #1, Euro is #2, and the GFS is #3, but will fall behind soon I bet. The CFSV2? Isn't that a seasonal model? It won't even show a storm the next few days I bet.
 
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