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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

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While many are currently transfixed on the disturbance in the eastern MDR, there's certainly a window, albeit a small one, for the remnants of 97L to make a run at the US in the longer term. If it manages to develop quickly and become a formidable cyclone in the Western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche/central Gulf, there's a very legitimate chance for it to get drawn northward towards the Texas &/or Louisiana coastlines as we'll have a decent break in the Azores Bermuda & Southern Rockies subtropical ridge bridge imparted by a trough over the central US. A decent hurricane, being steered by a deeper layer of the atmosphere, would be liable to "feel" the weakness between these ridges more than a tropical storm/depression and creep northward, and vis versa. Chances are obviously much higher atm for this to remain weaker and plow into Mexico, but the opportunity could certainly present itself for this to take a run at the US western Gulf coast, and again if it does directly impact the US it would likely be a strong TC due to the small details in the large-scale steering flow...
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Definitely worth noting quite a few EPS members are trying to develop the wave behind 99L that's currently over central Africa... This season is only getting started...
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There's a lot of GEFS members showing a non-negligible/decent area of broad low pressure yet again in the monsoon trough off Africa in 3-4 days, this time in association with the big African Easterly Wave behind 99L
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Lesson learn for me, never go ahead of yourself expecting the worse and jumping ahead with model watching with Hurricanes, when there's no storm to begin with.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol! But I think the Euro one is a little inaccurate this year, unless it is writing everything off lol.
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Well the only storm the Euro hasn't written off thus far this year in the Atlantic was Cindy and that turned out to be the largest/most intense one thus far and it seems to have done well picking up on 99L not developing while virtually all other guidance was on board w/ development (at least for a while) and 90L, which appears poised to become a TC in the Western Caribbean, Yucatan, and/or Bay of Campeche...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well the only storm the Euro hasn't written off thus far this year in the Atlantic was Cindy and that turned out to be the largest/most intense one thus far and it seems to have done well picking up on 99L not developing while virtually all other guidance was on board w/ development (at least for a while) and 90L, which appears poised to become a TC in the Western Caribbean, Yucatan, and/or Bay of Campeche...
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^ Per the 12Z models, this trough/wave in the Bahamas looks to be move WNW and then NW/NNW in the vicinity of the FL peninsula tomorrow as it rotates clockwise around the Bermuda high. I agree with the NHC very low probability of it ever becoming a TC due to the lack of model support, it not currently looking organized, and it going over land by tomorrow. I also agree that the chance is greater than 0% (maybe 5% at most) meaning it actually has a higher chance to become a TC that affects FL only because 99L's chance is barely above 0%. It is probably worth keeping a eye on it til it reaches FL tomorrow just in case it suddenly does the very unexpected, especially considering the very warm waters in the W. Bahamas. The last 2 Euros actually have a VERY weak surface circulation developing at the last minute before it goes over FL fwiw. So, I'm calling it a VERY small chance it makes it to TD status by tomorrow.
 
pcbjr said:
... and if anyone wants to grab for straws, run this loop (and I do mean grasp)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana..._frzn&runtime=2017080918&fh=3&xpos=0&ypos=100
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Thanks for posting that. Looking at the 850 vorticity on the 18Z GFS, one can see it move NW to near Vero Beach and then Melbourne tomorrow afternoon and then turn NNW along the E coast of FL to near Daytona Fri PM followed by a N and then NNE turn just offshore NE FL/GA late Fri-Sat. It then moves NE just offshore SC before going onshore near the SC/NC border Sun AM. That track makes sense since it is rotating around the Bermuda high. This is a similar track to the NAM track you just posted but closer to the coast and actually onshore from Vero to Daytona.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol this is gold
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Yeah it's pretty sad, i swear he's only been getting worse with time, his weather forecasting capabilities are aging like spoiled milk. On the other hand, yeah the steering pattern wrt looks atrocious for at least the next 10-12 days or so, but thereafter there's definitely a window of opportunity for anticyclones to dominate eastern North America as tropical forcing shifts back into the eastern hemisphere...
 
EPS once again trying to get enthused about a system in the eastern MDR, probabilities for a tropical depression/tropical storm have increased appreciably over the past 24-36 hours in concert with yet another easterly wave being augmented significantly by the Guinea Highlands. Sounds familiar lol...
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Webberweather53 said:
EPS once again trying to get enthused about a system in the eastern MDR, probabilities for a tropical depression/tropical storm have increased appreciably over the past 24-36 hours in concert with yet another easterly wave being augmented significantly by the Guinea Highlands. Sounds familiar lol...
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This is August headed towards September's segue - something's gonna happen ... :eek:
 
I'll believe it when I see it :p

Gets close to the OBX in 2 weeks :rolleyes:
 
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Yeah, likely overdone as the CMC doesn't seem to realize that high shear is unfavorable for genesis. But let's pretend that this is real and further north. Can you imagine if there is a huge evac at the same time as the eclipse trafficwise?
 
Yeah the CMC is probably overdone but there's no doubt the environment will be getting much more favorable in the MDR for TCG the next week or two as the MJO pushes over Africa and into the Indian Ocean (finally)...

The EPS is also trying to sniff out multiple threats for TCG in the MDR and really likes the wave near the Cape Verde Islands...
eps_tcprob_20_atlantic_5.png

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And right on cue here comes a decent CCKW into the east-central Atlantic, it just passed by 99L...
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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the CMC is probably overdone but there's no doubt the environment will be getting much more favorable in the MDR for TCG the next week or two as the MJO pushes over Africa and into the Indian Ocean (finally)...

The EPS is also trying to sniff out multiple threats for TCG in the MDR and really likes the wave near the Cape Verde Islands...
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View attachment 818

And right on cue here comes a decent CCKW into the east-central Atlantic, it just passed by 99L...
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Webb,
Can you explain in a little more detail the last model map in the post?
Thanks!
Phil
 
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