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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

Does seem a bit strange the high pressure is moving to a better location but not really reflective on surface. I will say as I mentioned yesterday, it does seem the footprint of the ice is shrinking but the totals in that footprint appear to be ticking up each run.
 
The CAD will often hold on stronger than modeled, but the track of the coastal so far inland (relatively) will presumably erode/cut off the CAD quicker. .10 before changing to plain rain seems like a good forecast for this area.
 
Poimen said:
The track of the coastal low is killing this thing for most.
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This x 1000. Why Canadian Hi Res is so much more icier v/s Nam, american suite. Very minuscule difference, but it makes huge difference to sensible wx deteails.
 

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Webberweather53 said:
Urban heat island might be saving Charlotte here, making it ever so slightly warmer
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Honestly, I felt like this would happen but the UHI here is weird compared to other cities because of how spread out Charlotte is and how different areas the city are. South End might stay above freezing while University or Mountain Island lake gets a glaze.
 
SimeonNC said:
Honestly, I felt like this would happen but the UHI here is weird compared to other cities because of how spread out Charlotte is and how different areas the city are. South End might stay above freezing while University or Mountain Island lake gets a glaze.
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The last few ice events I witnessed there had glaze near Kannapolis-Huntersville with plain rain once you got into Concord and the University. Probably what’s likely to happen
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Ground temps not a problem, solid as a rock. 20 degrees this morning.
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25 here this morning. Low 40s today upper 20s tonight! Then our minor event moves in. At least we got a shot at some winter precip in December again. Need a bit more dryer and colder air mass in order to be anything more than minor. IMO


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Poimen said:
I would definitely stick closer to the NAM than the RGEM.
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RGEM is ALWAYS over done on Ice totals. But usually does a pretty good job on where the ice will be.
And yes hard to bet against the NAM temp profiles, but in this case It’s just like NCSNOW said LP placement is the difference with the temps.

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We need to keep an eye on the actual dew point (DP) observations today. The latest HRRR (11z), at hour 18, has DPs at or just below freezing for NC (outside mountains) from line of Charlotte to Raleigh northward. Surface temperatures are right at freezing for the VA boarder counties from Warren westward. But in my opinion that is not going to cut it. We need to see more 20s (at least) DPs to get our NW folks something more than trivial. Here's hour 18 as precip is developing / moving in.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Ground temps not a problem, solid as a rock. 20 degrees this morning.
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Yeah temp busted here a few degrees lower this morning near black bear/lake. I'm hoping we get enough low level cold air to keep this sleet for a while then top it with a glaze that would be pretty. I still hate ice though...
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Yeah I’m not a huge fan of ice as I like my lights being on.
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I just put in a woodstove took the gas stove out to expensive I can cut all I want for a few bucks in gas. My power bill dropped to 150 too with kids and the wife that's killer savings. We loose power too almost every storm they shud put all power underground up this way lol
 
Mcdowell_weather said:
I just put in a woodstove took the gas stove out to expensive I can cut all I want for a few bucks in gas. My power bill dropped to 150 too with kids and the wife that's killer savings. We loose power too almost every storm they shud put all power underground up this way lol
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I hear ya! Should be some nice pics by morning out by the lake.
 
At hour 26, the HRRR has a nice winter event occurring for the middle/northern mountains of NC and all foothill locations; then northward into VA. Even a few touches of ice into extreme NW SC.
 
Downeastnc said:
Well then

..Eastern North Carolina...
Due to lingering spread among the output of the various models, the
extent of severe weather potential for Wednesday remains at least
somewhat unclear. It still appears that the track of the deepening
surface cyclone may allow for at least a weakly destabilizing warm
sector boundary layer to overspread the Outer and Inner Banks
vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. If this occurs, deep-layer wind
fields and shear probably will become sufficiently strong to support
a risk for organized severe convection.

The 15/00Z NAM forecast soundings for the Morehead City and Cape
Hatteras vicinities (around the 16/21-23Z time frame) exhibit wind
profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and very large
clockwise curved low-level hodographs, which appear favorable for
supercells capable of producing a strong tornado. Output from other
models doesn't appear quite as favorable, but this will be monitored
in later outlooks for this time period.
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Looks like there’s a chance for your favorite type of weather other than winter.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I hear ya! Should be some nice pics by morning out by the lake.
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Yeah I'm going to try and take a few I got to drive a Penske moving truck to statesville in the morning my mother in law built a house down there fingers crossed we make it. I'm a little concerned about the sleet with ice on top. I've drove plenty of times on sleet hell it's almost like gravel if u get a few inches but ice on top that's a no go lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep the 6z 12km NAM was probably a bit too fast to erode the CAD dome

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You’re probably right. And with a HP of that strength in that location, it may not be done. The H5 setup definitely forshadowed this coming to fruition at the surface eventually.
 
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