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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

I don’t think anyone has called for an ice storm for this system. Too much mixing with sleet snow flakes cold rain etc and less precip..it’s mostly a winter weather advisory type of event. Temps are not cold enough even in Wilkes it’s almost a guarantee here that two tenths of an inch of ice is max threshold. With that said any ice is slick and could cover a great area given colder trends.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I don’t think anyone has called for an ice storm for this system. Too much mixing with sleet snow flakes cold rain etc and less precip..it’s mostly a winter weather advisory type of event. Temps are not cold enough even in Wilkes it’s almost a guarantee here that two tenths of an inch of ice is max threshold. With that said any ice is slick and could cover a great area given colder trends.
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You can definitely get an ice storm without it meeting official NWS Ice Storm Warning criteria in your local area & temps certainly look cold enough for significant icing in Wilkes.
 
Most maps don’t verify if temps are near 32. I’m not expecting temps of 27 or colder here. It will be a close call here. Borderline event. I doubt roads get messy.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Most maps don’t verify if temps are near 32. I’m not expecting temps of 27 or colder here. It will be a close call here. Borderline event. I doubt roads get messy.
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Roads get messy even if there's basically any ZR accumulation whatsoever. As little as a few-several hundredths of an inch of freezing drizzle is all it takes for accidents to start piling up on area roadways, especially on bridges/overpasses.
 
iGRXY said:
Do you think the models maybe just aren’t translating it on the precip maps so it’s making people think the upstate be out of it? Living in the best CAD position in SC I have seen this many times. Models trying to underestimate CAD, models trying to erode it way too fast, and models being anywhere from 2-5 degrees too warm, and models trying to drive the LP into the CAD. We’re seeing this now. If you have a 1037 HP even in Quebec that’s got a solid 12-24 hour head start on the LP, I just don’t see anyway you don’t get significant ice in the Piedmont, foothills, and the upstate. Especially those from Anderson to Laurens to Union north.
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I could be wrong and hope I am but without a colder dryer air mass in place WAA will overtake this wedge quick in the upstate. With marginal at best surface Temps and dews in the mid to upper 20's to start I still think the majority of the upstate is screwed. Still time for a trend for the better and I hope it does. Right now places around Landrum still have a shot at the beginning but thats about it.
 
Oconeexman said:
I could be wrong and hope I am but without a colder dryer air mass in place WAA will overtake this wedge quick in the upstate. With marginal at best surface Temps and dews in the mid to upper 20's to start I still think the majority of the upstate is screwed. Still time for a trend for the better and I hope it does. Right now places around Landrum still have a shot at the beginning but thats about it.
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WAA keeps CAD locked in longer. Had a couple posts on that the last couple of days. The CAD looks good in the upstate. Especially from Pickens east to around clover and likely Belton northeast.
 
Oconeexman said:
I could be wrong and hope I am but without a colder dryer air mass in place WAA will overtake this wedge quick in the upstate. With marginal at best surface Temps and dews in the mid to upper 20's to start I still think the majority of the upstate is screwed. Still time for a trend for the better and I hope it does. Right now places around Landrum still have a shot at the beginning but thats about it.
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Warm air advection on its own doesn’t overtake a CAD wedge, it makes it stronger actually.
 
ryan1234 said:
What a strung out mess! I am fine with a bust just here just as long as the NE and MA get the same treatment!
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I understand the sentiment for wanting the MA and NE to get the shaft, but right now I want them to get buried and build up as much snowpack as possible, so that it will help our airmass for future opportunities
 
The HP was stronger on the 12z Euro than 0z and further SW. It doesn't seem to be scooting out in a hurry with the 50/50 in place. I'm thinking the surface temps are going to come down a degree or two in the next couple of days if there's not a big change in the setup. It makes me think the I-85 corridor and points NW is in play. The question will come down to exactly how impactful it will be. My guess is that just NW of Winston and the foothill areas like Hickory could be heavily impacted. Still too soon to tell for the Triad down to NW of Charlotte in the I-85 corridor.

My gut says it will be more than a minor nuisance, but it's always tricky to forecast.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Warm air advection on its own doesn’t overtake a CAD wedge, it makes it stronger actually.
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I get that but to me that's when you have a deeper colder air mass than what is showing here? Appreciate what you guys do as far as explaining and breaking all this down. Vad events are beyond tricky to forecast...just going off history we typically need dp in the lower teens all the way into Atlanta if Temps are marginal here for it to work out.
 
Chazwin said:
I understand the sentiment for wanting the MA and NE to get the shaft, but right now I want them to get buried and build up as much snowpack as possible, so that it will help our airmass for future opportunities
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Fair enough, you win this argument. Lol. I just get tired of seeing them win every year. But maybe we can score this go around. I am eagerly waiting for the NAM to come into its range. As well the other mesoscale models.
 
ryan1234 said:
Fair enough, you win this argument. Lol. I just get tired of seeing them win every year. But maybe we can score this go around. I am eagerly waiting for the NAM to come into its range. As well the other mesoscale models.
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Oh don’t get me wrong, I get sick of seeing them score every year too especially these last few years that the two biggest snowfalls I’ve managed has been 3.5 inches and 2 inches. I just have a feeling that a good healthy snowpack in the Northeast might help us even more in the next few weeks with CAD... especially with the NAO and AO looking to stay negative
 
Oconeexman said:
I get that but to me that's when you have a deeper colder air mass than what is showing here? Appreciate what you guys do as far as explaining and breaking all this down. Vad events are beyond tricky to forecast...just going off history we typically need dp in the lower teens all the way into Atlanta if Temps are marginal here for it to work out.
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Yeah typically we do and I don’t think we’re gonna see anything major down that way (0.25”+) unless dews crash in a big way in later runs which seems super unlikely. A minor glaze with perhaps a trace of sleet thrown in is probably realistic in the upstate of SC but cold rain only is just as likely
 
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