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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

Webberweather53 said:
This is probably why we're seeing the big NW trend here:

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An important addendum here. I know some like to think sampling of shortwaves doesn't have much of an effect on the forecast or the models, but this is definitely another instance of where it's having a huge effect on a high impact storm in the NE US.

 
NE Ga Wx said:
I know that MBY is not really in the running, but sometimes we can get some ice in this set up (Dec 2005 lol). Dewpoint here in northeast ga is currently 28.
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43/27 here..barely inside the WWA area..hoping to see a sleet pellet early in the morning! I guarantee at your elevation you see some briefly.
 
NE Ga Wx said:
I know that MBY is not really in the running, but sometimes we can get some ice in this set up (Dec 2005 lol). Dewpoint here in northeast ga is currently 28.
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You would think that habersham county has a better chance of seeing ice than white County or even Lumpkin County.. I used to live in White County and I remember the wedges had a hard time making it across the mountains . I remember a couple times in the two years I lived there that Gainesville had freezing rain and Cleveland had just rain.
 
Oconeexman said:
43/27 here..barely inside the WWA area..hoping to see a sleet pellet early in the morning! I guarantee at your elevation you see some briefly.
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I hope we can see some frozen precip but I am not holding my breath on this one lol. most appears to be the early morning hours, so probably at the infamous 33 and rain when I get up, and with .10" or less will be melted by the time I am up. at least it is something to track

Bham 99 said:
You would think that habersham county has a better chance of seeing ice than white County or even Lumpkin County.. I used to live in White County and I remember the wedges had a hard time making it across the mountains . I remember a couple times in the two years I lived there that Gainesville had freezing rain and Cleveland had just rain.
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thats why I am still optimistic to see something lol. my location and elevation tends to do very well in cad events, so with white county in the running I am hoping my back yard is too. you would think for White to be below freezing that Habersham would too since it comes here first haha
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
That was a long time ago. 2000 was also a failure. These models are no great and suck past 5 days. But that kind of failure now is unlikely. And even if it did it'd be ZR. No chance at all for snow here.
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2000 was a failure for sure, but most of the upstate missed that snowstorm. I got nailed down here though with a foot out of it, while places like Spartanburg and Greenville got very little.
 
strongwxnc said:
You can really pick up on where the south mountains are. Top blip in Rutherford
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You can tell a lot in that photo. For as good as Madison County does with NWF setups, you can clearly see the disadvantage of the French Broad River (blue line) here when it comes to CAD. That blue leading into Asheville is where the river flows into Tennessee and is the only large opening along a relatively walled off escarpment. It allows in so much warm air from Tennessee but that tends to stop in AVL because CAD can build along the Balsams to the Southwest and the Black Mountains to the East/Southeast (red lines), hence why Henderson and Transylvania Counties can still do well with these setups.

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iGRXY said:
NAM, HRRR, 3K Nam, and the RGEM are anywhere from 4-7 degrees too warm with DPs currently.
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Area-wide when you compare the 18z mesoanalysis obs w/ the 3km NAM, they're not too far off overall, dews definitely look lower than forecast over north-central Virginia with widespread reports of near 20-upper 10s, while the NAM forecast mid 20s. Will have to see if those can be advected southwestward into the Carolinas later today & tonight.

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My doubts are really sinking in. Warm sunny day all object soaking in the heat, and a cloud deck tonight to secure it in. That HP will have to do some serious work.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Current wet bulb temps. Definitely a map to watch over the coming hours esp in the western piedmont. Still hanging in the upper 30s atm but once we lose solar insolation from the day and as the CAD builds in, these should really drop over the evening & nighttime hours.

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Hope thats the case for those wanting winter weather.
 
Euro's cold air damming high looks too strong near initialization on the 12z run from this morning. Not seeing any obs of sfc pressures above 1033 over Ontario & the MSLP contours are too far south along the US east coast.

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