Stephenb888
Member
I see some of you are saying this run is even colder and some of you saying it’s warmer. Can’t be both which is it?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)
- Thread starter Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
- Start date
Heading in the most probable and predictable direction here 
iGRXY
Member
it was colder at 1am and the same at 7am. Slightly warmer in WNC.
That much needed, if you like ZR, degree or two has been hard to come by over the last 15-20 years.
iGRXY
Member
When we get to the 6z and 12z runs tomorrow for the nam, that’ll be much better time frame to get a look at where we are headed
iGRXY
Member
3km NAM colder than the 12k leading into the event. Granted it stops at 1am and has ZR breaking out on the NC/SC border
Stephenb888
Member
Is this still looking like an ice storm down into the lower upstate and even northeast Georgia or is that gone now?
I know people have disagreed with me, but this really is a marginal event. Temps/Dewpoints aren't that cold. I'm definitely not saying that somebody isn't getting ZR, and the chances are high NW of I-40, but along I-85 things are just going to likely be at freezing give or take a degree.
iGRXY
Member
3K NAM has lower DP by as much as 4 degrees at 60 as well.
this pretty much aligns with what I think 
It's almost comical how well it follows the I-85 line up to the NC/SC border.
Yeah for real, I’m thinking if you live along the I-85 corridor, it’s literally the difference between a degree, it could go either way, the precip isn’t that heavy either which doesn’t help until that afternoon, I guess for areas near 85 it’s more of a tree/power line ice event while areas further north it’s more of everything
This is close af, once we’re close to the event it’s gonna be very important to see your DP/WB temp/temp
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
18z ICON looks like it's slowing up our southern stream wave in the southwestern US a bit already thru 24 hr, the northern wave is a bit faster, will see if this translates forward in time
Lol. Best case I guess.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The slower this wave in the southwestern US is, the stronger the CAD is gonna be on Wed.
olhausen
Member
So I haven’t been paying any attention to the storm coming here overnight as I figured no chance at snow other then a few flurries. Then I looked at the euro which Im assuming is not going to be a reality. Anyone care to explain why it’s showing this and if it’s possible to get a surprise like this with the storm coming in overnight up here?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Notice on the new 18z DWD-ICON, the sfc high is a tad further south than the previous run, this is mainly because the deep-layer flow is less zonal over SE Canada as the gap between the 50-50 low & our wave in the southern branch of the jet widens, this is a synoptic-scale tweak we need to pay close attention to tonight & tomorrow as our wave gets sampled by the RAOBs and fully ingested into the models by 12z tomorrow. Having that mid-level shortwave ridge into the Lakes & Ontario is crucial in this regard in directing the low-level sfc high further south & that's a key element this particular setup is missing (if any) wrt classic CAD
iGRXY
Member
packfan98
Moderator
@Webberweather53 im seeing the same trends on the 18z RGEM
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 18z ICON was actually warmer at the sfc because it had less dynamically driven cooling from precip prior to sunrise vs earlier runs, however drizzle, freezing drizzle, and light ZR will likely start earlier than forecast by globals (as is often the case) & that's typically when the most efficient ZR accumulation will begin to occur in the far western piedmont.