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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

Stephenb888 said:
Let me guess...the models are trending warmer and upstate Sc is looking like a cold rain now?
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For us upstaters, I think it's still too early to say yet, but there's no question it's very marginal for us. The high is much farther north than you want to see it; we need to see down around NY/PA, which would more likely be a snow situation. Given what are currently seeing I-40 north and I-77 west is a good bet for at least something frozen. For the upstate, especially western upstate, it looks like a novelty event at best; for now.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
For us upstaters, I think it's still too early to say yet, but there's no question it's very marginal for us. The high is much farther north than you want to see it; we need to see down around NY/PA, which would more likely be a snow situation. Given what are currently seeing I-40 north and I-77 west is a good bet for at least something frozen. For the upstate, especially western upstate, it looks like a novelty event at best; for now.
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Webber said yesterday the high placement being in Quebec compared to NY has little to no affect in the CAD. Especially when you’re talking a 1035-1038 HP. If you live in eastern Pickens, Greenville, Spartanburg, Cherokee, western York, and northern union county you have a good chance of seeing a decent icing event IMO. Seeing the 3KM being much colder than the 12km at Hr 60 is a telling sign to me as well.
 
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I'm thinking along and NW of 85 up to 1in of snow if front end thump can get in here quick enough before waa takes over and changes to sleet/fzr up to .25 of ice max quick system not that much precipitation. The closer you are to the escarpment the better chance you have to see sleet and fzr and accumulation close to .25. Hopefully 925s can cool enough to give us sleet here along the escarpment fingers crossed.
 
Mcdowell_weather said:
I'm thinking along and NW of 85 up to 1in of snow if front end thump can get in here quick enough before waa takes over and changes to sleet/fzr up to .25 of ice max quick system not that much precipitation. The closer you are to the escarpment the better chance you have to see sleet and fzr and accumulation close to .25. Hopefully 925s can cool enough to give us sleet here along the escarpment fingers crossed.
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The snow part is pure wishcasting but it's happened before. All depends on 850s how close they get before warm nose takes over here at my house I'm only a degree away from all snow at onset.
 
Sleet City USA said:
Wow there is a lot more going on further south this run. Has it been like this the past few runs?
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While it’s unlikely, and probably to aggressive by some members, can never count it out, but yeah it has been back and fourth with runs showing stuff further north then south
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
While it’s unlikely, and probably to aggressive by some members, can never count it out, but yeah it has been back and fourth with runs showing stuff further north then south
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I count 13/20 showing pretty significant ZR in the Upstate there. That’s getting closer to a consensus than outliers. However you’re right those members, despite being in the majority, are not really in agreement with the other models
 
The 12z GEFS is definitely an improvement over the 0z & 6z runs at 500mb and these changes translated towards the surface. We need our s/w over the Arklatex to slow down a bit more to allow the s/w ridge over the NE US to balloon towards the Lakes & southwestern Ontario. These changes will increase mid-level warm advection & change the deep-layer flow over Canada to be less zonal, allowing for more low-level cold air and cold advection as well more time for the low-level air mass to build into the Carolinas & NE GA preceding our storm. It would also shift the onset of the precip closer to daybreak on Wednesday, providing an additional degree or two of radiational cooling Tue night that could laterally expand the initial coverage of freezing rain and sleet in the piedmont.

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Canadian has another very large thumping of ICE again and it’s still well into the upstate. Haven’t gotten the totals yet but there was a solid 6-10 hrs of icing just in the upstate. GEFS looking solid and likely changing over too fast, CAD always holds on longer than modeled, so so far the 12z suite is holding true.
 
My call rn is the Foothills to the NW CLT metro(Shelby to Lincolnton to Statesville) seeing a medium to maybe significant event, possibly more sleet and maybe a little snow for the foothills and mountains, I can honestly see those areas staying frozen throughout the duration of the storm.

The GSP to the immediate CLT metro to areas between GSO and RDU probably have a nuisance to medium-ish event with the NW areas being favored, I can honestly see a possibility of these areas staying at freezing but not really getting much more in the way of ice accretion.
 
What about the 12z Icon, It was coming in colder last few runs has the trend continued or gone the other way? Haven't seen it mentioned. Maybe it hasn't run yet? IDK I'm still of the notion EURO has to be more on board for me to take it serious meaning (something more than token pellets and tops of trees with a glaze.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
What about the 12z Icon, It was coming in colder last few runs has the trend continued or gone the other way? Haven't seen it mentioned. Maybe it hasn't run yet? IDK I'm still of the notion EURO has to be more on board for me to take it serious meaning (something more than token pellets and tops of trees with a glaze.
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Went back the other way a bit
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Canadian is basically unchanged from the last several runs, I-85 corridor in SC & southwestern NC will generally be the dividing line between cold rain/nuisance glaze to the SE vs significant impacts NW.

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Your not lying it has been very consistent the last 3 runs, although it’s trended towards more ZR instead of IP for more NW areas 6FAB71C6-B5A3-45FE-8559-9AB293E39F74.gifC68DFD53-4002-4E43-9B8A-42100E11C56E.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Your not lying it has been very consistent the last 3 runs, although it’s trended towards more ZR instead of IP for more NW areas View attachment 57477View attachment 57478
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Yep. This is exactly why I mentioned that once we get the synoptics generally nailed down, the CMC is probably one of, if not the most reliable global model as its often cold biased low-level thermals play to its benefit in CAD.
 
Last 3 days of 12z GEFS runs valid for 0z Wed.

Despite some noise that we've lost some QPF, been ticking warmer/less ice, or that much of upstate SC is out of the ballgame for this event, it's pretty obvious in my eyes where we've been trending the past few days:

All of these aforementioned statements are simply false w/ these synoptic scale changes at 500mb across successive days on the GEFS. This more amplified, slower wave pattern in the east-central US continues to push the distribution of realistic solutions here towards a colder, stronger, more laterally extensive CAD and more ice overall, w/ risk of ice increasing in the I-85 corridor in upstate SC. A few more large-scale tweaks like this and far NE Georgia will also stand a chance to see at least a light glaze before all is said & done.

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Webberweather53 said:
Last 3 days of 12z GEFS runs valid for 0z Wed.

Despite some noise that we've lost some QPF, been ticking warmer/less ice, or that much of upstate SC is out of the ballgame for this event, it's pretty obvious in my eyes where we've been trending the past few days:

All of these aforementioned statements are simply false w/ these synoptic scale changes at 500mb across successive days on the GEFS. This more amplified, slower wave pattern in the east-central US continues to push the distribution of realistic solutions here towards a colder, stronger, more laterally extensive CAD and more ice overall, w/ risk of ice increasing in the I-85 corridor in upstate SC. A few more large-scale tweaks like this and far NE Georgia will also stand a chance to see at least a light glaze before all is said & done.

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Do you think the models maybe just aren’t translating it on the precip maps so it’s making people think the upstate be out of it? Living in the best CAD position in SC I have seen this many times. Models trying to underestimate CAD, models trying to erode it way too fast, and models being anywhere from 2-5 degrees too warm, and models trying to drive the LP into the CAD. We’re seeing this now. If you have a 1037 HP even in Quebec that’s got a solid 12-24 hour head start on the LP, I just don’t see anyway you don’t get significant ice in the Piedmont, foothills, and the upstate. Especially those from Anderson to Laurens to Union north.
 
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