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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)



I must say, and I’m not picking on Brad, but a lot of TV Mets are not shy about their disdain for hobbyists who post these type of maps. Notice this model has just as sever ice totals in the Triad as in VA, and that’s probably not happening.
 
Chazwin said:
It was February 2015 when he forecasted 7-10” for the metro area, and then January 2017 when he was going with 5-8”... both of those times the city ended up with only a couple inches and the southern Mecklenburg into Union County got less than an inch. Ever since those two storms he’s been very conservative. It’s a complete reversal from how he used to be. I remember back in December 2010, he guaranteed a white Christmas for Charlotte 4 days out and then sweating bullets when the models lost the storm 72 hrs out only to bring back in the last 24 hours
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Oh, that's right! That was a major disappointment, I was one unhappy guy. Lol. I kind of feel bad for the man. He has a huge media presence, so that doesn't help. However, he shouldn't be posting fantasy storm maps for the folks up north. Although, I guess he has nothing to lose...
 
ryan1234 said:
Oh, that's right! That was a major disappointment, I was one unhappy guy. Lol. I kind of feel bad for the man. He has a huge media presence, so that doesn't help. However, he shouldn't be posting fantasy storm maps for the folks up north. Although, I guess he has nothing to lose...
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Yeah February 2015 is still an open wound for the snow lovers in my house. GSP had us forecasted 10-14 inches on there afternoon forecast package when the storm was to start in early evening... it snowed very heavy for about 45 minutes covering everything even though temperatures were in the mid 30s... then that warm nose that no one saw coming took over and we had 30 minutes of sleet then it poured rain the rest of the night. Brad wasn’t the only one who missed on that one
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Surprised Grayson and Patrick counties are not in the watch!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Yea, it is weird. I would think .25 ZR would be a good bet in at least parts of those counties. I am also surprised they have me all snow and sleet with the NAM having such an epic warm nose. They mention it in the discussion though.


Most of the precipitation will start as a mix of snow and sleet, but
the NAM shows a good warm nose at 850 mb with temperatures above
freezing that will penetrate northward above the shallow cold wedge
at the surface. This warm nose will transition the precipitation
types more toward freezing rain by midday along and east of the Blue
Ridge, but a snow and sleet mix could persist west of the Blue Ridge
for most of the day. There still remains a considerable amount of
uncertainty regarding exactly where the gradient of the various
precipitation types will set up along with the total QPF amounts
among the various models and their ensembles. However, confidence is
increasing for a winter storm with significant impacts from
snow, sleet, and ice on Wednesday.


I am just NW of the parkway but I always consider the mountains just west of I81 to be the Blue Ridge too. So I am east of them. I dono...
 
ryan1234 said:
Well, with how whacked 2020 has been... Maybe, just maybe we will get one of those surprise storms that Mets and models failed to catch on. Fingers crossed!
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My youngest boy is convinced that we’re gonna have a huge snowstorm the first week of January. His reasoning... the charter school he attends has already decided that they are having full remote learning that week so even if it were to snow enough to put them out all week, he would still be in school
 
0z Nam has coastal coming up through ENC instead if riding up coast tick off shore. Screws thermals up verse Canadian suite. 50 miles one way or other makes a difference between a novelty event v/s winter storm[ ice]
 
Do not see I don’t think one area outside near the escarpment go under 30 degrees, areas that received ZR outside the super CAD areas mainly stayed around 30-32, probably won’t be much of a issue on the roads but I’ve seen setups even at 32 have ice build up on trees, so this looks more like as I like to call it a tree top ice event for areas more into the piedmont, it’s a super close call and at this point any cold trends makes things iffy
 
18z RDPS HOUR 48 on pivotal is what you want to see to get a legit ice storm. Compare to same time stamp on 0z Nam and you can see the difference with transfer,lp placements. Why Canadian short range is more frozen. Im on my phone , so cant copy n paste for you guys.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
One thing I’m keeping an eye on, on the 0Z 3K NAM at hour 14 it’s popping a 1030 meso high over WV that wasn’t there prior runs. Something to monitor.
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It’s probably linked to the 5”+ of snow they got today. That can lead to meso high development.
 
Old map 85732D7B-427F-4C1E-9315-6407EDB4675D.jpeg<



Here is my new updated and 2nd call map (3rd call is my last
I did back off a bit due to warmer trends over the last 24 hours, however I do keep fringe areas from a T-0.05, just in case, all it takes is some drizzle and 32 degrees, did take CLT out the mix
The worst areas IMO will be around Wilkes around @BirdManDoomW And here is where I think there is some potential for the wedge to Hold a bit longer, areas around Salisbury/LKN/Shelby did go down a little bit, in this situation don’t look at the high end numbers, look at the low end as that’s your most likely A42D8EA2-0C08-4E09-BD21-E21851A16EA2.jpeg
 
I suck at drawing call maps so I apologize if it looks weird but here are my thoughts rn.

Pink Area: Trace-.1 ZR accretion

Purple: .1-.2 ZR accretion

Red: .2-.25 ZR accretion

Blue: ZR mixed with IP and possibly snow in the onset(especially in the higher elevations) At least .1 in ZR accretion


ncmap1.png
 
With the HP trending stronger and the h5 seemingly trending more in a favor of a strong CAD so I'm sort of bullish for the Foothills and Western/Northwestern Piedmont. I have a low ice accretion forecast for the blue areas because I do think there might be more in the way of IP or even snow mixing in early on for the northern areas and high elevation places.
 
Well then

..Eastern North Carolina...
Due to lingering spread among the output of the various models, the
extent of severe weather potential for Wednesday remains at least
somewhat unclear. It still appears that the track of the deepening
surface cyclone may allow for at least a weakly destabilizing warm
sector boundary layer to overspread the Outer and Inner Banks
vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. If this occurs, deep-layer wind
fields and shear probably will become sufficiently strong to support
a risk for organized severe convection.

The 15/00Z NAM forecast soundings for the Morehead City and Cape
Hatteras vicinities (around the 16/21-23Z time frame) exhibit wind
profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and very large
clockwise curved low-level hodographs, which appear favorable for
supercells capable of producing a strong tornado. Output from other
models doesn't appear quite as favorable, but this will be monitored
in later outlooks for this time period.
 
Downeastnc said:
Well then

..Eastern North Carolina...
Due to lingering spread among the output of the various models, the
extent of severe weather potential for Wednesday remains at least
somewhat unclear. It still appears that the track of the deepening
surface cyclone may allow for at least a weakly destabilizing warm
sector boundary layer to overspread the Outer and Inner Banks
vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. If this occurs, deep-layer wind
fields and shear probably will become sufficiently strong to support
a risk for organized severe convection.

The 15/00Z NAM forecast soundings for the Morehead City and Cape
Hatteras vicinities (around the 16/21-23Z time frame) exhibit wind
profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and very large
clockwise curved low-level hodographs, which appear favorable for
supercells capable of producing a strong tornado. Output from other
models doesn't appear quite as favorable, but this will be monitored
in later outlooks for this time period.
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I feel like all strong winter storms produce at least some severe weather on the warm side.
 
SimeonNC said:
I feel like all strong winter storms produce at least some severe weather on the warm side.
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Yeah its probably going to be limited to Hwy 17 and east in NC ( immediate coastal areas) but any shift west in track could put more of the I 95 corridor under threat.....the 06Z NAM was still showing STP in the 4-6 range over the IBX/OBX
 
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