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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Rain Cold said:
If the shortwave up north would have moved through faster, high pressure would have built in and we would have had a significant snowstorm. As we remember from last evening, temps were in the 40s, as were dewpoints. We really didn't have any cold and dry air being directed into the area. We got what we did because of very cold temp aloft, combined with strong enough lift to provide strong dynamic cooling of the column.
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That TPV closer by definitely helped out to also, , if it was farther way/more north those colder 850s wouldn’t have wrapped in, here I would have liked CAD given areas west do better with CAD/miller Bs vs miller As 2ECA2130-B6F1-44FA-831B-9209AC5247BB.png70D84D62-CC2B-4559-9CF6-D699DA12E54F.png
 
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Ollie Williams said:
I really like that riding north of Alaska. Honestly, that SER will be transient if we get that look to verify.
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Bro your autocorrect hates you every time you say riding first ??? But yeah I agree, I think the GFS could have the idea but it’s to quick, and I mean the EPS basically has a look we have now A7B3E6BE-1786-41D5-A837-C692F5550E99.pngF5D0C700-2752-4695-9BF2-D9C97AAD1FA0.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Bro your autocorrect hates you every time you say riding first ??? But yeah I agree, I think the GFS could have the idea but it’s to quick, and I mean the EPS basically has a look we have now View attachment 68871View attachment 68872
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The NAO block looks really Far East as does the trough at hour 340 something . Similar look just shifted much further east.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah there’s a TPV under it, could argue that could inject more cold, note the impressive -WPOish ridge as well ?View attachment 68874
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We had a displacement wave 1 SSW, now we're going for the wave 2 split. Split SSWEs are usually colder right away in N America vs displacement where it takes weeks for it to happen (if at all)
 
All I’m saying is no one is actually giving solid credit to the Gfs pulling an absolute coup especially against the euro who never even saw it ... let’s start giving more credibility to these models until they prove us to be wrong
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
All I’m saying is no one is actually giving solid credit to the Gfs pulling an absolute coup especially against the euro who never even saw it ... let’s start giving more credibility to these models until they prove us to be wrong
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I'll give it to the GFSv16 for sniffing the storm out early, but it sure needs some work on it's snowfall accumulation algorithm. It forecast 5 inches of snow for me and the Euro forecast 2 inches for me. Ground truth was 1 inch of snow. :)
 
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