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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

I’ll take this pattern on the euro , brings a nice WAR and stops all the nasty CAD. Maybe next Friday could trend to 70 for the eastern half of NC . Plus it brings nice big fronts . People in Alabama and Tennessee are gonna like that.
 
Maybe today's storm and the weekend threat is just setting the stage for more to come. Next weekend already looking interesting.
 
smast16 said:
Oh god that looks beautiful. I can't wait!!! It better not be raining either!
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In kernersville good chance it may be . Hope the WAR trends NW . This is a pattern where is 77 in Wilmington with puffy cumulus , 70 in RDU . Cloudy 68 GSO . 64 and raining ATL. But if it doesn’t trend NW then it will be 50s and raining GSO. 64 cloudy RDU . 70 in Wilmington
 
Lickwx said:
I’ll take this pattern on the euro , brings a nice WAR and stops all the nasty CAD. Maybe next Friday could trend to 70 for the eastern half of NC . Plus it brings nice big fronts . People in Alabama and Tennessee are gonna like that.
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that Euro run isn't happening...guarantee it looks much different tonight
 
Lickwx said:
In kernersville good chance it may be . Hope the WAR trends NW . This is a pattern where is 77 in Wilmington with puffy cumulus , 70 in RDU . Cloudy 68 GSO . 64 and raining ATL. But if it doesn’t trend NW then it will be 50s and raining GSO. 64 cloudy RDU . 70 in Wilmington
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TBF, just want sun and over 60. All i want.
 
smast16 said:
TBF, just want sun and over 60. All i want.
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Yeah, admittedly this is a warm humid pattern on the EURO , not particularly sunny . You need to be further east for the sun. probably partly cloudy skies at best. Still warm though that’s all I want please.
 
Stormlover said:
Euro is way too warm, and has that low shooting up to Canada...nope
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I might be wrong but the ECMWF solution looks more right to me, phase 7 MJO in a nina February argues for a southeast ridge, what were ultimately looking for is a shift to phase 8, I think the GEFS/GFS is to quick with the progression. I think we’ll switch cold later tho B444340C-9DD0-4569-8245-CD13C3EC08A2.gifA1504DD1-0A7F-4EB1-ACE7-41928A45385D.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I might be wrong but the ECMWF solution looks more right to me, phase 7 MJO in a nina February argues for a southeast ridge, what were ultimately looking for is a shift to phase 8, I think the GEFS/GFS is to quick with the progression. I think we’ll switch cold later tho View attachment 68855View attachment 68856
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What are the indices like, yesterday Gfs wanted to bring about a positive PNA. Bet the euro doesn’t have that. Something I mentioned is not betting against the stuck weather pattern which has been a negative nao , ao, and pna until proven otherwise .
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Kinda looks like Feb 73 with the placement of heaviest snow while N AL and N GA get screwed.
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Actually it’s not that far off the look of the Atlanta Snowjam in 2014. It’s an overrunning setup so if it were to actually happen, it would probably be expanded north more
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Good news is, we have a TPV in our backyard with this lookView attachment 68844
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Ok, so I'm confused. I know some folks ended up with a decent snowfall but I thought the TPV generally messed up our cold feed for this last storm. Can you explain the difference in this situation?
 
mrdaddyman said:
Ok, so I'm confused. I know some folks ended up with a decent snowfall but I thought the TPV generally messed up our cold feed for this last storm?
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Nah it was far enough south to overall push our storm south and provide just enough cold for a winter storm, we got lucky with it trending south just enough, if it was just a bit farther north it would have been a novelty flake event
 
mrdaddyman said:
Ok, so I'm confused. I know some folks ended up with a decent snowfall but I thought the TPV generally messed up our cold feed for this last storm. Can you explain the difference in this situation?
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If the shortwave up north would have moved through faster, high pressure would have built in and we would have had a significant snowstorm. As we remember from last evening, temps were in the 40s, as were dewpoints. We really didn't have any cold and dry air being directed into the area. We got what we did because of very cold temp aloft, combined with strong enough lift to provide strong dynamic cooling of the column.
 
Rain Cold said:
If the shortwave up north would have moved through faster, high pressure would have built in and we would have had a significant snowstorm. As we remember from last evening, temps were in the 40s, as were dewpoints. We really didn't have any cold and dry air being directed into the area. We got what we did because of very cold temp aloft, combined with strong enough lift to provide strong dynamic cooling of the column.
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That TPV closer by definitely helped out to also, , if it was farther way/more north those colder 850s wouldn’t have wrapped in, here I would have liked CAD given areas west do better with CAD/miller Bs vs miller As 2ECA2130-B6F1-44FA-831B-9209AC5247BB.png70D84D62-CC2B-4559-9CF6-D699DA12E54F.png
 
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Ollie Williams said:
I really like that riding north of Alaska. Honestly, that SER will be transient if we get that look to verify.
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Bro your autocorrect hates you every time you say riding first ??? But yeah I agree, I think the GFS could have the idea but it’s to quick, and I mean the EPS basically has a look we have now A7B3E6BE-1786-41D5-A837-C692F5550E99.pngF5D0C700-2752-4695-9BF2-D9C97AAD1FA0.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Bro your autocorrect hates you every time you say riding first ??? But yeah I agree, I think the GFS could have the idea but it’s to quick, and I mean the EPS basically has a look we have now View attachment 68871View attachment 68872
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The NAO block looks really Far East as does the trough at hour 340 something . Similar look just shifted much further east.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah there’s a TPV under it, could argue that could inject more cold, note the impressive -WPOish ridge as well ?View attachment 68874
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We had a displacement wave 1 SSW, now we're going for the wave 2 split. Split SSWEs are usually colder right away in N America vs displacement where it takes weeks for it to happen (if at all)
 
All I’m saying is no one is actually giving solid credit to the Gfs pulling an absolute coup especially against the euro who never even saw it ... let’s start giving more credibility to these models until they prove us to be wrong
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
All I’m saying is no one is actually giving solid credit to the Gfs pulling an absolute coup especially against the euro who never even saw it ... let’s start giving more credibility to these models until they prove us to be wrong
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I'll give it to the GFSv16 for sniffing the storm out early, but it sure needs some work on it's snowfall accumulation algorithm. It forecast 5 inches of snow for me and the Euro forecast 2 inches for me. Ground truth was 1 inch of snow. :)
 
something brewing at 216 ... might be too warm this run
 
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