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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
LickWx
Member
I’ll take this pattern on the euro , brings a nice WAR and stops all the nasty CAD. Maybe next Friday could trend to 70 for the eastern half of NC . Plus it brings nice big fronts . People in Alabama and Tennessee are gonna like that.
LickWx
Member
Maybe just maybe this will finally be it . I have been waiting for this amped pattern all winter ! Was getting sick of the stale stuff . Unleash the PV , I’ll take my chances with it .
smast16
Member
Oh god that looks beautiful. I can't wait!!! It better not be raining either!
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Maybe today's storm and the weekend threat is just setting the stage for more to come. Next weekend already looking interesting.
LickWx
Member
In kernersville good chance it may be . Hope the WAR trends NW . This is a pattern where is 77 in Wilmington with puffy cumulus , 70 in RDU . Cloudy 68 GSO . 64 and raining ATL. But if it doesn’t trend NW then it will be 50s and raining GSO. 64 cloudy RDU . 70 in Wilmington
Stormlover
Member
that Euro run isn't happening...guarantee it looks much different tonight
LickWx
Member
Both Euro and Gfs seem consistent last 2-3 days in dropping down a PV . Guarantees some sort of a ridge in the east . How far west that ridge is idk.
Stormlover
Member
Euro is way too warm, and has that low shooting up to Canada...nope
smast16
Member
TBF, just want sun and over 60. All i want.
LickWx
Member
It’s an active pattern , I think if the Euro went past 240 the cold air would have moved through .
LickWx
Member
Yeah, admittedly this is a warm humid pattern on the EURO , not particularly sunny . You need to be further east for the sun. probably partly cloudy skies at best. Still warm though that’s all I want please.
I might be wrong but the ECMWF solution looks more right to me, phase 7 MJO in a nina February argues for a southeast ridge, what were ultimately looking for is a shift to phase 8, I think the GEFS/GFS is to quick with the progression. I think we’ll switch cold later tho
LickWx
Member
What are the indices like, yesterday Gfs wanted to bring about a positive PNA. Bet the euro doesn’t have that. Something I mentioned is not betting against the stuck weather pattern which has been a negative nao , ao, and pna until proven otherwise .
Actually it’s not that far off the look of the Atlanta Snowjam in 2014. It’s an overrunning setup so if it were to actually happen, it would probably be expanded north more
SouthSideYankee
Member
These sometimes move the L just off of our coast or get squished under the block to our north. I like this timeframe too.
Ok, so I'm confused. I know some folks ended up with a decent snowfall but I thought the TPV generally messed up our cold feed for this last storm. Can you explain the difference in this situation?
Nah it was far enough south to overall push our storm south and provide just enough cold for a winter storm, we got lucky with it trending south just enough, if it was just a bit farther north it would have been a novelty flake event
This is ugly 
But after this looks very very similar to what we just had, wow, as long as that -NAO sticks around were gonna keep trying
But after this looks very very similar to what we just had, wow, as long as that -NAO sticks around were gonna keep trying
If the shortwave up north would have moved through faster, high pressure would have built in and we would have had a significant snowstorm. As we remember from last evening, temps were in the 40s, as were dewpoints. We really didn't have any cold and dry air being directed into the area. We got what we did because of very cold temp aloft, combined with strong enough lift to provide strong dynamic cooling of the column.