• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Lol imagine if this thing got stuck in phase 7, hey it’s a upgrade from maritime forcing, lol 2DE2B219-63A5-4979-89C2-46A63018C300.gif
 
  • Haha
Reactions: SD
Even with the EPS showing what it’s showing today, I still hold that as long as the -NAO is there, the SER will trend weaker the closer we get to verification. As for the -NAO not doing anything for us, it absolutely is... it’s keeping us in the game for winter threats.... we’ve just not had the luck with timing for the most part which proves the point that Webb and other mets have said that even in good patterns, there still has to be good luck and timing to get snow in the southeast. Now hopefully we can get the MJO into phase some here in the next couple of weeks, but keep in mind that as we go deeper into February, the MJO has less impact. Also I remember seeing a post a couple weeks ago about MJO phases and relation to winter storms in NC...it looked like the only phase that was horrible for winter storms was 3 or 4.
 
Chazwin said:
Even with the EPS showing what it’s showing today, I still hold that as long as the -NAO is there, the SER will trend weaker the closer we get to verification. As for the -NAO not doing anything for us, it absolutely is... it’s keeping us in the game for winter threats.... we’ve just not had the luck with timing for the most part which proves the point that Webb and other mets have said that even in good patterns, there still has to be good luck and timing to get snow in the southeast. Now hopefully we can get the MJO into phase some here in the next couple of weeks, but keep in mind that as we go deeper into February, the MJO has less impact. Also I remember seeing a post a couple weeks ago about MJO phases and relation to winter storms in NC...it looked like the only phase that was horrible for winter storms was 3 or 4.
Click to expand...
Problem is tho is that phase 6/7 now is one of the worst possible phases you can get during a La Niña, that’s basically the kickstart to a La Niña type pattern, I think here in the Carolinas we could sneak out CAD tho, but not enough for any real wintry weather, one difference With this SER that I’m not liking is theres no trough off the EC, it’s just a western US dump/TPV under the block and a full on SER with tons of breathing room, maybe we can push our block to Baffin Bay and move the TPV far enough south
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top