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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

RollTide18 said:
January 2018 was good for the 85 corridor, first time I've been in the bullseye for snow

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Good call
 
RollTide18 said:
January 2018 was good for the 85 corridor, first time I've been in the bullseye for snow

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Hmm yeah I guess you could make a case to count Jan 16-18 2018. I'm unsure whether to denote it as an overrunning event, even though much of the precip was driven by dCVA aloft and not (modest) warm advection like you traditionally see in those cases.
 
Brick Tamland said:
And still under the average snowfall. Still only had one storm with a constant -NAO. And I am not just talking about me, but the pattern overall and what it has produced. Just hope the pattern we get will produce as well as it historically has in the past.
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I think we have a good chance or at least a lot better then the last few February’s. Even though I’ve had a lot of little snow events I haven’t had as much as 2 inches from one storm since March of 2018.
 
GFS was seeing an NC/SC storm for Feb 7th back a few days ago. Now seems all the models are seeing some semblance of something to varying degrees but maybe a few days out into the week now and at different times. Tells me we'll get a storm somewhere that week. Just how much and exactly where still remains.

Webb, Miller As are good for Raleigh? I always thought we get too warm in this part of the state for miller-A's typically as they wind up too much.
 
More seperation with this cutoff and N/S trough early on means a more successful wave break in the medium range with a stronger trough which would mean more reinforced -NAO (CMCish like solution) before the big TPV drops downA3508B93-30D6-4DDA-9322-7EB95FA14353.png
 
That trough early on is key, the earlier it separates and the stronger it is, as it heads easy it pumps our -NAO ridge, and can get the second TPV stuck under given a stronger block in place
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Bro this is insane the medium range changes are literally pants nukingly awesome View attachment 69572
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We did say we needed the SER to weaken on the models and it looks like it's happening. Get a wave to develop off the edge of the arctic air mass. Crazy thing is with the level of cold air coming in, I can see this continually trending south.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Bro this is insane the medium range changes are literally pants nukingly awesome View attachment 69572
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I can't recall ever seeing such wild swings in continental sensible weather as the EMCF has demonstrated in the medium range as of late. Anything is on the table beyond day 5.
 
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