• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Yikes the means aren't really good. I guess it's better than nothing this far out
 
Lickwx said:
Gonna add some climo perspectives since everyone is going Gaga over barney. The last sub 25 high in rdu for the month of January was in 1988. For the month of February it was in 2015. However, they have happened only 9 times in over 130 years for the month of February . Let alone 2 back to back days .
Click to expand...
How did RDU not have any highs below 25 in January 1994? CLT had a couple days during that week long outbreak that barely broke 20.
 
Somosdel said:
it’s a fair point. Much rather have this cold air locked in place though and worry about suppression. Plus we always have our NW trend in the end which will give us room to work with.
Click to expand...
This is true. Even with the tendency of storms to trend south this winter, we’ve still seen them trend back NW during the final 18-24 hours leading up to them. February 12, 2010 was very much like that. I literally went from no snow in the forecast with everything missing me to the south to 24 hours later getting 5 inches. Also with a deep cold air mass like that, you don’t need a strong low to give good snows... just need a weak low riding the gulf coast to give good overrunning like January 1988 or January 2011
 
ATLwxfan said:
Another totally underestimated wedge today with forecasted mid 50’s but we are stuck in the mid 40’s ITP. Gonna have to watch this over the next few weeks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Imagine how good of a wedge we could get with an actual high pressure up in the NE
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Quite boring weather on the gfs so far.
Click to expand...
Out to day ten, the GFS is a snooze fest other than a fleeting cold shot. I'd like to latch on to the EMCF, but it has in particular been all over the place beyond 96 hours. There is good agreement on finally getting some true artic air into NAM, so we'll see what we can cook up in a few days.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
DamnView attachment 69648and the overrunning system ahead of it trended better
Click to expand...
This is the type of set up to watch for something to pop up on the edge of the front as it’s clearing through the southeast. Look at those temperature difference along the Texas coast... perfect baroclinic zone for a wave to develop and move east and perhaps spread some overrunning precip. It’s something that often doesn’t show up until 2 or 3 days out
 
From RAH:
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 425 PM Sunday...

The mid/upr low initially along the middle Atlantic coast will lift
very slowly newd and allow for shortwave ridging to expand from the
Plains to the middle Atlantic mid to late week. The flow aloft is
then forecast to become increasingly amplified, with cross polar
flow likely by Fri-Sat, and a progression of a high amplitude trough
from the cntl to ern US through next weekend. It will consequently
warm up into the 50s-60s in cntl NC by Fri, followed by an above
average chance of rain as the trough aloft, and one or more frontal
systems, affect NC through the weekend. An Arctic intrusion will
likely follow the latter frontal system; and that could result in
the some of the coldest air in recent memory by early next week.

&&
 
Only thing we are pretty sure of is there will be a cold snap. Maybe short lived and our window of opportunity may be fairly small. Just got to hope something pops up as we draw closer


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top