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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

SD said:
Should be a fun few days to watch and evolve. That's my concern though
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When I se these pattern projections I smile but shrug as well. Lots can change between now and then. Remember how incredible the pattern looked 3 weeks ago? Granted we scored a light event but the pattern is nowhere near the pattern projected back in early Jan.
 
smast16 said:
Nah. We know how this will end. The SER will nudge back a little to buffer us from the core of the cold, and it'll be out as fast as it comes in.
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The thing is the SER has trended weaker the whole winter. The -NAO has really been the driver of our temps this winter. It has kept us in the game by preventing an all out torch, maybe now taking the field with a chance to score a touchdown
 
Shaggy said:
When I se these pattern projections I smile but shrug as well. Lots can change between now and then. Remember how incredible the pattern looked 3 weeks ago? Granted we scored a light event but the pattern is nowhere near the pattern projected back in early Jan.
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The morning euro had a massive ridge with all the cold in the pnw then noon one shoved it 1000+ miles east. That’s massive change which tells ya the models don’t know whats going on.
 
superjames1992 said:
The snowfall mean is pretty pathetic and you know this cold snap is going to come in significantly warmer than expected; we’ll be lucky to break 20.
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Idk it looks pretty stout , I’d bet on 15 degrees , anything under that will take a stronger push or a snowpack. Single digits will 100% require a snowpack. Honestly I have to wonder what the absolute coldest we can get without a snowpack is. Cant be much colder than 15. All our record lows happen with a snowpack .
 
Shaggy said:
When I se these pattern projections I smile but shrug as well. Lots can change between now and then. Remember how incredible the pattern looked 3 weeks ago? Granted we scored a light event but the pattern is nowhere near the pattern projected back in early Jan.
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Yeah I just can't see the SE ridge building back at D10 on some of the models and not be concerned. Doesn't mean that's what happens but I can't get that excited. I think we get a big cold snap but beyond that it's question marks
 
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Shaggy said:
When I se these pattern projections I smile but shrug as well. Lots can change between now and then. Remember how incredible the pattern looked 3 weeks ago? Granted we scored a light event but the pattern is nowhere near the pattern projected back in early Jan.
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Keep in mind that pattern was showing up around day 10-15. Now it's showing up around day 6.
 
Lickwx said:
Idk it looks pretty stout , I’d bet on 15 degrees , anything under that will take a stronger push or a snowpack. Single digits will 100% require a snowpack. Honestly I have to wonder what the absolute coldest we can get without a snowpack is. Cant be much colder than 15. All our record lows happen with a snowpack .
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We’ve had many cold snaps with lows down in the single digits in the Carolinas. January 2014 and Late December/Early January 2017/18 being the most recent.
 
Chazwin said:
We’ve had many cold snaps with lows down in the single digits in the Carolinas. January 2014 and Late December/Early January 2017/18 being the most recent.
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Reread what I said bro, snowpack ! I’m wondering what the coldest temps can get without a snowpack are . I’m a climo data machine ik when we hit single digits trust me lol. Perhaps @SD knows .

Any examples of it being in the single digits with 0 snow on the ground ? 2015,2014,2018,2000, 1985 etc all had snow on the ground if I’m not mistaken with the record lows . Genuinely curious , would take a bit of digging to find out .
 
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Here in NW tennessee, the winter has been about average. No terribly cold spells. No real warm ups. Average, or below average precipitation. Feels like something's got to give. Severe weather, big cold spell, or something. Haven;t even had to turn the dog's heat lamp on yet. One good storm and cold snap would be awesome... then bring on Spring!!
 
SD said:
Should be a fun few days to watch evolve, that's my concern though. Short cold shot then SE ridge
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I'm optimistic we won't see a big SE ridge. I don't think the core of the blast will settle over the SE either. But, this will be the first time this winter, assuming the models are correct, that we'll have a real shot at a widespread winter storm. I'm excited to have some real, bonafide cold air in the vicinity for the first time this winter.

Again, if the models are correct, we will have plenty of arctic air on our side of the world and available to tap nearby, and it should be shunted in our direction with no big warm-ups, particularly if the NAO remains favorable, which it looks to do. Plus, the pattern will probably remain active.

We still may foul it off, but it looks like we'll get a fat pitch to hit, with ducks on the pond.
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm optimistic we won't see a big SE ridge. I don't think the core of the blast will settle over the SE either. But, this will be the first time this winter, assuming the models are correct, that we'll have a real shot at a widespread winter storm. I'm excited to have some real, bonafide cold air in the vicinity for the first time this winter.

Again, if the models are correct, we will have plenty of arctic air on our side of the world and available to tap nearby, and it should be shunted in our direction with no big warm-ups, particularly if the NAO remains favorable, which it looks to do. Plus, the pattern will probably remain active.

We still may foul it off, but it looks like we'll get a fat pitch to hit, with ducks on the pond.
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If we can get someone to bang on a trash can there’s no way we’ll miss that.
 
Lickwx said:
Reread what I said bro, snowpack ! I’m wondering what the coldest temps can get without a snowpack are . I’m a climo data machine ik when we hit single digits trust me lol. Perhaps @SD knows .

Any examples of it being in the single digits with 0 snow on the ground ?
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I think January 05 or maybe Feb 15
 
Lickwx said:
Reread what I said bro, snowpack ! I’m wondering what the coldest temps can get without a snowpack are . I’m a climo data machine ik when we hit single digits trust me lol. Perhaps @SD knows .

Any examples of it being in the single digits with 0 snow on the ground ? 2015,2014,2018,2000, 1985 etc all had snow on the ground if I’m not mistaken with the record lows .
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Yes the two times I pointed out there was no snow cover in the western Piedmont...both times CLT had lows in the 4-8 degree range without any snow cover. A few other times that come to mind right off for CLT metro are Dec. 1989 and January 1994
 
SD said:
I think January 05 or maybe Feb 15
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Jan 05 was close , 11 degrees ! Feb 2015 didn’t come to mind though, I just remember snow lying around for 2 weeks . It hit 7 though and didn’t snow the day before .
 
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CyclonicFury said:
Looks like quite a contrast to recent La Niña Februaries.
View attachment 69608
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These are the La Ninas since 1895 that had -NAO in February against an older, colder, and more relevant base period (for that time) 1895-2000:

It's extremely hit or miss wrt snow here, you have some truly legendary Februarys like 1895 & 1899, some solid ones like Feb 1968, 1965, 1963, and then quite a few duds. Even still, give me this pattern every day of the week and I'll take my chances.

1612142685662.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
These are the La Ninas since 1895 that had -NAO in February against an older, colder, and more relevant base period (for that time) 1895-2000:

It's extremely hit or miss wrt snow here, you have some truly legendary Februarys like 1895 & 1899, some solid ones like Feb 1968, 1965, 1963, and then quite a few duds. Even still, give me this pattern every day of the week and I'll take my chances.

View attachment 69694
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1899 , I don’t even know if it’s possible for something like that again . Ice chunks flowing into the miss by New Orleans , -2 in Tallahassee , Raleigh had a high of 10 which is the coldest ever . It’s so anomalous that the next coldest high for Raleigh is 16... a 6 degree difference . The -2 recorded in Raleigh that February was the record low until we hit -9 in January 1985.
 
Lickwx said:
1899 , I don’t even know if it’s possible for something like that again . Ice chunks flowing into the miss by New Orleans , -2 in Tallahassee , Raleigh had a high of 10 which is the coldest ever . It’s so anomalous that the next coldest high for Raleigh is 16... a 6 degree difference . The -2 recorded in Raleigh that February was the record low until we hit -9 in January 1985.
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Yeah the Jan 1985 cold wave came right at the end of the month & was also ironically after a SSWE like this year. I wouldn't expect an air mass like Feb 1899's but we can get stupid cold in patterns like this as long as we get at least temporary bouts of -EPO/WPO. One of those bouts of -EPO/-WPO is coming the next few days and will help setup this massive cold shot next week that's showing up on the models.
 
Every La Nina since the mid 1980s has featured +NAO in February. Thanks to a strong/persistent -NAO lingering from the sudden stratospheric warming event early in January, this year looks to be a major change of pace & you can basically throw the canonical Feb Nina SE US blowtorch composites out the window

1612143486316.png
 
Lickwx said:
Idk it looks pretty stout , I’d bet on 15 degrees , anything under that will take a stronger push or a snowpack. Single digits will 100% require a snowpack. Honestly I have to wonder what the absolute coldest we can get without a snowpack is. Cant be much colder than 15. All our record lows happen with a snowpack .
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Nope. Our record here is -8F (1985) and that was without any snowcover.
 
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