If I had to guess, I would think Friday has a decent chance to get into the 60s out ahead of the trough, but you can already see the trough is pushing east so it would be very short lived.
You got keep in mind that just because a good pattern sets up, it doesn’t guarantee a winter storm. There is still timing and luck involved. There have many times over the years that we had good patterns that just simply didn’t produce. With that said, it would be very surprising during this long of a stretch of a -NAO for the Carolinas and Northern GA to score at least one widespread winter storm outside the mountains and foothills
I'm guessing this is assuming a lot of snowcover ?
If we get a cold shot like that an actually have some snow on the ground I could certainly buy single digits
I don’t know about that. Obviously I’m in the CLT area so sometimes what works for us doesn’t work for Raleigh, but we’ve experienced some good storms in the last 20 years... January 2003, February 2004, March 2009, January 2011, February 2014, January 2018. I didn’t even include the storms that gave very little to the southeast part of CLT area but put much bigger amounts 15-20 miles to the north and west.
That’s look is $$$$ for for the Carolinas and NE GA. A 1041mb high anchored in place over PA with at that point is likely some good snow cover and low pressure moving along the Gulf Coast
Ole JB has been saying this for 3 weeks that cold was coming after firstbweek of Feb with potentially several storms with that pattern. Funny how models now starting that way
December 2017 was pretty close.
Yes and my wife was stuck on an Atlanta highway for 14 hours during it.
The difference here is that the last 7 million years, we had a +NAO, those big troughs would go poleward and reinforce +NAO, and flex the SER, this go around there’s a huge -NAO, it can’t go poleward easily so it’s forced to slide under the block, I’m not sayin this will last significantly longer, but imo a trough of that size with that much blocking, I could see it slowing down, but this -NAO has been a huge help this year, previous years the NAM is unfavorable with a Garbo strat PV state and we get a mostly +NAO/AO, this year it’s the complete opposite and given the weakened PV, blocking has been significant, we trash this SPV warming event but it’s doing one thing it’s suppose to do, blocking.
A little colder earlier this year and a lot more snow would have fallen for people all over the southeast and especially the mid south.
