Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

[Stormdoc]

Here is today’s Euro, and below yesterday’s at the same time. Shows how the SE ridge keeps trending weaker (again).

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sucks we gotta deal with the ridge flexing when we’re finally dumping legit cold in the US but

 

[SD]

Sucks we gotta deal with the ridge flexing when we’re finally dumping legit cold in the US View attachment 69074but View attachment 69076

Phase 7

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Phase 7

I hope we progress to 8, that’s when we let the Arctic air loose

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol imagine if this thing got stuck in phase 7, hey it’s a upgrade from maritime forcing, lol

 

[SD]

?

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

?

This was 3 days ago right ? I'm sure the models could have changed in 3 days.

 

[GaStorm]

Lol imagine if this thing got stuck in phase 7, hey it’s a upgrade from maritime forcing, lol View attachment 69080

Too bad it's not in the COD since it probably would be a non factor.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Too bad it's not in the COD since it probably would be a non factor.

It’s higher amp now so it has more of a effect, this winter it’s been low amp

 

[GaStorm]

It’s higher amp now so it has more of a effect, this winter it’s been low amp

So the Euro is showing higher amp vs GFS? I wonder what the chances of it going lower would be?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So the Euro is showing higher amp vs GFS? I wonder what the chances of it going lower would be?

I haven’t checked but like 2 days ago the GFS was progressing the MJO to fast

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We love dumping stuff out west in early February it seems the last few years

 

[MichaelJ]

I hope we progress to 8, that’s when we let the Arctic air loose

Unfortunately, it is likely it gets stuck in 7 until mid-March and at fairly high amplitudes.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I wonder how many severe weather threads we’re gonna fire up the next few weeks

 

[SouthSideYankee]

I

Unfortunately, it is likely it gets stuck in 7 until mid-March and at fairly high amplitudes.

I have little hope for even reaching 8 Tbh.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Can’t wait for some nighttime elevated thunderstorms rounding the ridge ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

When you realize your getting 585dm heights on a ensemble mean ??

 

[SD]

When you realize your getting 585dm heights on a ensemble mean ??

600 or meh

 

[CaryWx]

I don't see anything of snow chance-like weather coming up in Feb here

 

[Chazwin]

Even with the EPS showing what it’s showing today, I still hold that as long as the -NAO is there, the SER will trend weaker the closer we get to verification. As for the -NAO not doing anything for us, it absolutely is... it’s keeping us in the game for winter threats.... we’ve just not had the luck with timing for the most part which proves the point that Webb and other mets have said that even in good patterns, there still has to be good luck and timing to get snow in the southeast. Now hopefully we can get the MJO into phase some here in the next couple of weeks, but keep in mind that as we go deeper into February, the MJO has less impact. Also I remember seeing a post a couple weeks ago about MJO phases and relation to winter storms in NC...it looked like the only phase that was horrible for winter storms was 3 or 4.