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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

This was our winter storm that was showing up yesterday ??Screenshot_20210129-112145.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Just need a weaker SER and stronger cold press. A good step this run vs 6Z.
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Yeah, the ridge creates a stationary front with the arctic boundary which just funnels a ton of moisture through the SE...imagine if that ridge was weaker or more east based. You can see a big arctic sfc high just waiting to drop down.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
It's going to be sad when the SER screws us and by the time it finally breaks down, the arctic air mass will have moderated.
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Arctic air masses have to moderate going east , if you are east of the apps especially . SER or not we aren’t going to get the -9 or whatever the GFS had for OKC. It would have to moderate a bit . Though you live a good deal west of me so the moderation would be less .
 
Lickwx said:
Arctic air masses have to moderate going east , if you are east of the apps especially . SER or not we aren’t going to get the -9 or whatever the GFS had for OKC. It would have to moderate a bit . Though you live a good deal west of me so the moderation would be less .
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Ofc but its going to moderate to the point where none of us have a chance at wintry precip or even unusually cold air.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
CMC put a beat down on the ridge this run surprisingly vs it’s huge SER last run, not far from CAD pattern here (sound like a broken record I know) View attachment 69046View attachment 69047
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As long as that -NAO is there, I just don’t think you’ll see the SER take over. We may see it flex enough to bring a milder day here and there, but it’ll probably be mainly transient.
 
Chazwin said:
As long as that -NAO is there, I just don’t think you’ll see the SER take over. We may see it flex enough to bring a milder day here and there, but it’ll probably be mainly transient.
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Seems like not matter how unfavorable tropical forcing is, the -NAO is a buzzsaw, people say a weak PV doesn’t do nothing but it’s offered us some of the best blocking in years
 
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So what am I missing. The AO, NAO, WPO, EPO, PNA are all negative by the 7ish on the 00z EPS. Should that not help lead to much colder temps for us. Yet the EPS is normal to AN for us from the 7th on...Is it the MJO?


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I get just a little bit nervous that we pop a secondary shortwave off here in S TX and get severe, that trough behind should keep that in check tho 2B564D46-E0CE-47CC-9D6A-DF230C8B7A46.png
 
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